Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez Odds
| Johnson Odds | +136 |
| Hernandez Odds | -162 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-154/+120) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV |
| Bout Time | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 324 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 324 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Michael Johnson vs. Alexander Hernandez prediction for UFC 324 on Saturday, January 24, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Michael Johnson and Alexander Hernandez being a borderline must-see bout on the prelims in 2026 wasn’t necessarily on my bingo card, but this is a highly intriguing matchup with how well each man has looked in their recent form. Both fighters have won four of their last five, and are enjoying a resurgence after each may have been prematurely written off in the quest to join the top 15 rankings. Let’s break down this competitive bout in depth.
Here's my Johnson vs. Herandez pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Johnson | Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-19 | 18-8 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:37 | 10"05 |
| Height | 5'10" | 5'9 |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 72" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/4/1986 | 10/1/1992 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.28 | 4.31 |
| SS Accuracy | 39% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.79 | 4.50 |
| SS Defense | 58% | 59% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.58 | 1.14 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 36% |
| TD Def | 81% | 73% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0.1 |
Hernandez has always been considered a fighter with tremendous potential but he seemed to disappoint in spots where he was looking to take that next step into contender status. Over the last year he has showcased his well-rounded skillset and is fighting with confidence. He has the ability to out-box lesser strikers and out-wrestle lesser grapplers.
In his most recent victory over Diego Ferreira, we saw the best version of Hernandez to date. The veteran Ferreira landed just 23% of his significant strike attempts. Hernandez was defensively sound and was very patient in his approach.
After losing the opening round, Hernandez's footwork paid dividends as Ferreira began to reach with his strikes. This led to Hernandez timing his entries with precision, ultimately landing a beautiful step-in elbow that was perfectly timed.
That performance from Hernandez will undoubtedly give him even more confidence in his striking, but I’m not totally sold that he has the advantage in that department on Saturday evening. Michael Johnson looked incredible last July, when he pulled off a massive upset over Daniel Zellhuber.
The 39 year-old Johnson is having a career resurgence after out-striking the younger Zellhuber in all three rounds back in July. Questions will remain about his durability, and while Hernandez does have youth on his side, Johnson has the advantage in hand-speed. Both fighters have suffered multiple knockout losses in the UFC, but it is Johnson that has actually been finished only once due to strikes over the last six years.
One key to victory for Johnson will be his takedown defense. My expectations for Hernandez are to approach this fight patiently in the first round, and then turn up the pace in the second in regards to both volume and impact. Johnson will win round one at a very high clip, and he will have to lean on his 81% takedown defense after that point.
Hernandez was sharp defensively against Ferreira but he still lost round one trying to get down the timing of his opponent. I do not believe he will be able to overcome such a deficit this time around.
Johnson has only been taken down four times in total over his last ten fights. His footwork is excellent and he is highly skilled in unleashing his offense from a distance. Keep in mind, Hernandez still has a negative striking differential over the course of his career, absorbing 4.5 significant strikes per minute. Whenever this fight is playing out on the feet, I give the upper-hand to the sharper and faster strikes of the veteran Johnson.
Johnson vs. Hernandez Pick, Prediction
Either man is certainly live for the knockout, and the perception is overstated that Hernandez is the more likely of the two to put down his opponent. Looking at the totality of his career, he has not necessarily faced off with many top-tier strikers. In my estimation, each fighter he has faced that I’d consider squarely an above-average striker – Drew Dober, Donald Cerrone, Billy Quarantillo, Bill Algeo and Renato Moicano – have beaten Hernandez.
Taking the value with Johnson given his recent form is the best course of action here, as he can beat Hernandez to the punch and make this the exact type of fight he needs it to be to continue his late-career winning streak.
John's Picks: Michael Johnson +135 (BetMGM)
