UFC 328 looks to be the best card of the year on paper, with two highly anticipated title fights. We've got the flyweight belt on the line between two up-and-coming stars in Josh Van and Tatsuro Taira, plus the first middleweight title defense for Khamzat Chimaev against Sean Strickland.
It all goes down at the Prudential Center in Newark, with a 5:00 p.m. start time for the 13-fight card.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 328 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 328 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Khamzat Chimaev (-575) vs. Sean Strickland (+425)
I genuinely have no idea what to make of this fight. On the one hand, Strickland earned this title fight more via his mouth than his fists, talking himself into a rivalry with Chimaev. Strickland is 2-2 over his last four, with two losses to now-former champion Dricus du Plessis, a split decision win over Paulo Costa, and a finish of Anthony Hernandez.
The finish over Hernandez is what makes it seem as if Strickland has a shot here. Like Chimaev, Hernandez is a relentless pressure grappler, albeit without the size and strength of Chimaev. Strickland was able to use his movement and defensive grappling to keep that fight standing the entire time, and has never been controlled on the mat for an extended period. He was taken down six times by du Plessis, but allowed just over two minutes of control time in that fight.
Of course, Chimaev is an entirely different animal than any of Strickland's past opponents. He has more striking power than most grapplers and has taken down every opponent he didn't knock out in the first round. His inability to finish du Plessis despite more than 21 minutes of control time is slightly concerning, though, given Strickland's legendary cardio and pace as fights wear on.
All things considered, I think this line is a bit too wide, though it's moved around in both directions since opening. However, if we can get solid plus-money on Strickland's point spread when those lines drop, it would be my preferred way to bet it. For that reason, I'm waiting until later in the week, but will likely have some kind of action on the big underdog.
Verdict: Strickland Undervalued
Josh Van (+142) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-170)
Flyweight champion Josh Van and Tatsuro Taira have had remarkably similar UFC careers. Van is 9-1 in the promotion with his tenth fight coming for the title, while Taira is 8-1 and fighting for the title in his tenth promotional appearance.
Both took losses against veterans as considerable favorites before resuming their win streaks, though Van suffered a knockout loss while Taira's was a split decision. Either way, my view is that the loss made them both better.
Those similarities are why I'm surprised to see the champion as an underdog here. Yes, he won his title with a freak injury to Alexandre Pantoja, but we can't really hold that against him. He'd been dominant prior to that, including a unanimous decision win over the fighter (Royval) who beat Taira. "MMA Math" isn't a great way to handicap, but it's another datapoint that shows how close this fight is.
I don't think either fighter should be anywhere near -170 in this matchup, so I'm jumping in on the underdog. The line has already started to move that way after Van opened around +165 or so, so at worst, we can probably bank some CLV betting on Van. The best line at the moment is +152 on FanDuel, but I'd continue to take anything beyond +120.
Verdict: Josh Van Undervalued
