Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland Odds
| Tuivasa Odds | -218 |
| Sutherland Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-135/+105) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 7:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland prediction for UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
No matter how seasoned an MMA bettor you are, you’d be hard-pressed to recall a fighter even remaining on the UFC roster after six consecutive losses. Furthermore, that fighter being the clear favorite in their quest to end their losing streak may actually be unprecedented. Tai Tuivasa is being given an opportunity to right the ship in a matchup he should win. He is the value side against an opponent that will be overwhelmed in my estimation.
Here's my Tuivasa vs. Sutherland pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tuivasa | Sutherland | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 15-9 | 10-5 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 7:41 | 1:46 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'3" |
| Weight (pounds) | 264 lbs. | 264 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 75" | 76" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 3/16/1993 | 2/08/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.66 | 3.75 |
| SS Accuracy | 48% | 52% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 4.97 | 7.50 |
| SS Defense | 43% | 22% |
| Take Down Avg | 0 | 4.69 |
| TD Acc | 0 | 33% |
| TD Def | 60% | 0% |
| Submission Avg | 0 | 0 |
Tai Tuivasa won five consecutive fights from 2020 to 2022 and, in doing so, became a fan favorite by racking up all of those wins by knockout within seven minutes in each of those contests. His post-fight celebrations quickly became something fans looked forward to, but we’ve been deprived of such antics ever since Tuivasa had to endure the natural progression of a career after a string of victories – a step-up in competition.
Tuivasa is not a well-rounded fighter. If you aren’t seeing him engage in a slugfest, that probably means he is going to end up on the losing end of the fight, especially against ranked heavyweight fighters. Tuivasa’s stamina and ground-game are non-existent, thus, his ceiling in the division is limited.
Tuivasa can set up his strikes pretty well, and in the early going of the fight, his hand speed is well above average for a man of his size. He has more than ehough firepower to put away lesser men, and has the durability to survive against fighters outside of the division’s elite. His classic brawling style isn't necessarily built for winning consistently, but it does produce excitement in the right environment.
Fortunately for Tuivasa, the tools he does have will be more than enough to dispatch his opponent this weekend. Louie Sutherland may be one of the least skilled men on the UFC roster. Sutherland made his way to the UFC by garnering some success in the Levels Fight League, but he did so by beating two fighters with five career professional fights each. Prior to that, Sutherland captured victories over two fighters with a combined 13-12 record. Over the course of that four-fight winning streak in LFL, only two of his four wins came by way of knockout.
Any time Sutherland has had even a minor step-up in competition, he has failed to capitalize. In 2022, he entered the PFL playoffs, tasked with an opponent having only one professional MMA fight under his belt. Sutherland lost that bout by unanimous decision. Since entering the UFC, Sutherland has been finished in round one in his two appearances, both of which have occurred within the last six months.
With all the shortcomings that come along with Tuivasa, he is undoubtedly the hardest hitter Sutherland has faced over the course of his MMA career. Sutherland pressed forward with one sloppy attack in his most recent loss against Brando Pericic before eating a shot that rocked him. His defensive awareness from that point forward was very poor, as he continually put his head down until the eventual TKO materialized for Pericic.
Tuivasa vs. Sutherland Pick, Prediction
That knockout loss for Sutherland was just six weeks ago. He now steps in on short notice to take on Tuivasa in front of what will certainly be a raucous crowd in favor of the hometown knockout artist. The UFC knows exactly what they are trying to accomplish here by matching up Tuivasa with somebody he can get the exact type of fight he wants with in Sutherland. This matchmaking is a setup to get the crowd hyped as they celebrate Tuivasa's first win in almost four years.
This fight is not difficult to handicap. Do not overthink it. The moneyline is too short, but I do not see any reason to pay the full price at around -200. Tuivasa’s knockout prop is solid value at -120, but again, if that KO happens, it’s extremely likely to occur within the first round or two. This specific market is listed under ‘KO/TKO round combos’ on FanDuel.
If Tuivasa cannot claim victory over low-level competition the likes of Sutherland, his career in the UFC is over. I’ll back "Bam Bam" to get back on track on his home turf with his career on the line.
John's Picks:Tai Tuivasa by KO/TKO in rounds 1 or 2 +115 (FanDuel)
