Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates Odds
| Maddalena Odds | -102 |
| Prates Odds | -118 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-200/+1154) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 9:15 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates prediction for UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
On Saturday, the UFC returns to Perth, Western Australia, for a 13-fight card, featuring an important main event in the welterweight division between former champion Jack Della Maddelena and No. 5 contender Carlos Prates.
Maddalena enters with a 9-1 promotional record, with his only loss coming via decision against Islam Makhachev at UFC 322 last November, after winning welterweight gold over Belal Muhammad at UFC 315. Saturday will mark his third consecutive main event or five-round fight.
Prates enters with a 7-1 promotional record, with his sole loss coming against Ian Garry last April. While that was Prates' first career fight to reach the championship rounds, he did win both championship rounds on the scorecards (two of three cards in Round 4; unanimous in Round 5), alleviating some concerns about his cardio, as Prates is a known smoker.
Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC Perth Main Event on Saturday morning and use those factors to bet on these welterweights. They're expected to make their cage walks at approximately 9:15 a.m. ET (6:15 a.m. PT) on Saturday morning.
Here's my Maddalena vs. Prates pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Maddalena | Prates | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-3 | 23-7 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 11:59 | 8:48 |
| Height | 5'11" | 6'1" |
| Weight (pounds) | 170 lbs. | 170 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 73" | 78" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 9/10/1996 | 8/17/1993 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.57 | 3.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 51% | 55% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.84 | 4.53 |
| SS Defense | 63% | 47% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| TD Acc | 10% | 100% |
| TD Def | 64% | 80% |
| Submission Avg | 0.1 | 0 |
Carlos Prates is the bigger (2" taller, 2" reach advantage) and more dynamic athlete than Jack Della Maddalena ("JDM"). That athleticism is on display in his fighting style, using his length and explosiveness to pressure opponents, back them up to the fence and keep them in front of him by utilizing his kicks to direct their lateral movement.
He's the superior kicker, and Prates carries more power in his hands and is potentially more durable, too. JDM is the more technical boxer and the more well-rounded martial artist.
Despite his ability to break opponents down from distance, Prates often brawls with his opposition rather than picking them apart one strike at a time. Since he's willing to fight at closer range with his opponents, despite his length, Prates has a higher strike accuracy than JDM (55% to 51%).
Still, the Aussie is far more calculated defensively (63% to 47% striking defense), explaining why he has a +1.8 significant strike differential per minute at distance, compared to a surprising deficit of -1.3 per minute for Prates.
Moreover, if either man has grappling success in the fight, I'd expect it to be JDM, who has had to work extensively to improve his grappling before his three most recent fights (against the aforementioned Makhachev and Belal, along with Gilbert Burns), and may be willing to mix in some offensive shots of his own against a dangerous muay thai striker who has shown a skill deficiency in that area of MMA.
Prates lost a unanimous first round to Leon Edwards (who landed two of three takedowns, 3:00 control time) before a second-round knockout win. He also surrendered four takedowns (3:09 control) on 19 attempts against Ian Machado Garry; a pair of takedowns in the second round (1:25 control) likely swung a close fight in Garry's favor.
I don't expect JDM to have extended top time in this fight, but he needs to give Prates different looks to suppress his opponents' offensive volume and create additional openings for his own boxing combinations, as Prates lowers his hands to defend against potential takedown attempts. On the Action Network Podcast, my colleague Billy Ward correctly noted that you should bet Della Maddalena Over 0.5 Takedowns.
I'd expect a potential slow start and feeling-out process in this matchup. Both fighters have shown a pattern of starting slowly before ramping up their tempo as they get deeper into the second and third rounds, and with either staring at possible championship rounds for just the second or third time in their respective careers, early pacing will be at the forefront of their minds.
Prates is the more diverse and dynamic striker, making use of all eight points of contact, whereas JDM is more boxing-reliant. Still, a potential grappling edge and stamina advantage, along with home-crowd judging bias in a close decision, push me towards the underdog.
Prates alleviated some cardio concerns with the way he fought late against Garry, but I've never been particularly high on Garry's five-round cardio, either. I'd take JDM's gas tank over Prates' in an extended fight.
Maddalena vs. Prates Pick, Prediction
I projected Jack Della Maddalena as a 56% favorite (-127 implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline to around -115 (53.5% implied), at a 2.5% edge compared to my projected line.
I also expect this fight to go to a decision more frequently than the odds suggest, setting that prop at +153 (39.5% implied), compared to listed odds of +180 (35.7% implied). And as a result, I project a correlated edge on Jack Della Maddelana to win by decision (projected +275, listed +350).
While this fight could turn into a high-paced war in the middle rounds, UFC main events show a selection bias toward more durable fighters (53% decision rate in welterweight five-rounders vs. 45% in three-round fights), and I'd expect a competitive 48-47 decision in either direction.
Sean's Picks: Jack Della Maddalena +100 (Caesars) | Fight Goes to Decision +180 (FanDuel) | Jack Della Maddalena Over 0.5 Takedowns +150 (DraftKings)
