Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld Odds
| Dariush Odds | +370 |
| Salkilld Odds | -485 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (+114/-145) |
| Location | RAC Arena, Perth, Western Australia |
| Bout Time | 8:45 a.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC Perth odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC Perth with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Beneil Dariush vs. Quillan Salkilld prediction for UFC Perth on Saturday, May 2, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
The UFC Perth co-main event features one of the most blatant examples of lopsided matchmaking, as rising Australian star Quillan Salkilld takes on the veteran Beneil Dariush. Salkilld is a decade younger, 4-0 in the UFC, and going off as nearly a five-to-one favorite. Will this one go according to plan, or can Dariush deny the up-and-comer?
Here's my Dariush vs. Salkilld pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Dariush | Salkilld | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-7-1 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:48 | 7:10 |
| Height | 5'10" | 6'0" |
| Weight (pounds) | 155 lbs. | 155 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 75" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 5/06/1989 | 12/28/1999 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.78 | 5.16 |
| SS Accuracy | 49% | 57% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.62 | 3.24 |
| SS Defense | 57% | 44% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.11 | 7.95 |
| TD Acc | 38% | 36% |
| TD Def | 82% | 90% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.8 |
What's so scary about this fight for Dariush is not so much Salkilld's recent form/record, but how he's got there. Salkilld is 4-0 in the UFC, but with three first-round finishes, two of those coming via knockout.
That's a massive problem for Dariush, since his chin has completely failed him at this point in his career. Dariush spent much of his early career eating a shot or two on the way in before winning via his elite grappling. A former grappling prodigy, Dariush won world no-gi titles at blue, purple, and brown belts before earning his black belt in just five years (For comparison, Demetrious Johnson earned his black belt roughly nine years after beating Kyoji Horiguchi via helicopter arm bar in a UFC title fight). That's around when Dariush switched over to MMA.
Even in his early career, Dariush's chin was his biggest enemy. He won six of his first seven bouts in the promotion, but was knocked out in his only loss. He was also knocked out in two of the three fights he lost in 2017 and 2018, just before his eight-fight winning streak that saw him become a title contender.
Since that streak, he's 1-3 with three first-round knockout losses. The only fight he won was against Renato Moicano, a former featherweight who lacks massive punching power, and was still able to drop Dariush in the first round.
Punching power is not something Salkilld lacks. Both of his UFC knockouts were clean, one-shot stoppages, with no doubt about his opponent's ability to recover from the shots. He might only need to land one clean shot to end Dariush's night — and possibly career.
The other problem for Dariush is that Salkilld is also a strong grappler. In his only UFC win that didn't end in the first round, he picked up eight total takedowns, as well as landing nine on the Contender Series. He's also defended nine of the ten takedowns that have been attempted against him. Even if Dariush can survive an exchange or two on the feet, his usual massive edge in grappling won't be there this time.
Dariush vs. Salkilld Pick, Prediction
This is a much chalkier pick than I typically like to take, but I see no reason not to bet Quillan Salkilld to win in the first round. All of Dariush's recent losses have been in the first five minutes, while three of Salkilld's four wins have also come without a trip back to the corner.
While the likeliest method is a Salkilld knockout, that is more than baked into the price. The Round 1 prop is widely available at +130, while adding knockout to the mix only moves the line 20 cents to +150.
I'd be pretty upset if Salkilld dropped Dariush before finishing him with a choke, and I lost my bet by trying to add 20 cents, so rather than get cute, I prefer to have more ways to win.
Billy's Picks: Quillan Salkilld Round 1 +130 (DraftKings)
