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Khaos Williams vs. Matthew Semelsberger UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Undercard Fight (Saturday, June 19)

Khaos Williams vs. Matthew Semelsberger UFC Fight Night Odds, Pick & Prediction: How To Bet Undercard Fight (Saturday, June 19) article feature image

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Khaos Williams (left) and Matthew Semelsberger.

  • Khaos Williams and Matthew Semelsberger face off in the prelims of Saturday's UFC Fight Night in a can't-miss matchup.
  • The two welterweights have serious finishing power, and they have a track record of getting it done in the first round.
  • Erich Richter breaks down the betting value in this fight below, detailing why he likes the underdog.

Williams vs. Semelsberger Odds

Williams Odds -155
Semelsberger Odds +125
Over/Under 2.5 (+118 / -152)
Time Approx. 5:30 p.m. ET
Channel ESPN2
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

UFC Vegas 29 starts at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2 and will pack a big punch early on.

Kalinn “Khaos” Williams and Matthew Semelsberger will battle at the welterweight division on the event’s prelims. Semelsberger features a career 80% finish rate, and Khaos is one of the strongest punchers in the division.

This fight should be incredibly entertaining. Semelsberger projects as an extremely aggressive — and well-rounded — fighter, while Williams is a brawler with a strong right hook that puts his opponents to sleep at a moment’s notice.

You do not want to miss the start of this fight either. Both Semelsberger and Williams knocked out their opponent in under 60 seconds for their last victory. Each fighter will surely bring the “Khaos” on Saturday.

Tale of the Tape

Williams Semelsberger
Record 11-2 8-2
Avg. Fight Time 5:19 7:38
Height 6’0″ 6’1″
Weight (pounds) 170 lbs. 170 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″ 75″
Stance Orthodox Switch
Date of birth 3/30/94 11/23/92
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.39 7.93
SS Accuracy 45% 50%
SS Absorbed Per Min 2.95 5.31
SS Defense 44% 56%
Take Down Avg 0.00 1.97
TD Acc 0% 100%
TD Def 0% 100%
Submission Avg 0.00 1.0

Both fighters are very athletic and big for their weight division. Khaos will look like the better athlete in the cage, but Semelsberger was a productive Division 1 Safety at Marist College. His hair was equally unbelievable in college, as it was during his fight against Carlton Minus. He has since cut it, unfortunately.

In Semelsberger’s past fights, he showcased excellent low calf kicks, which will be crucial in this fight. Williams stands strong on his front leg, something that Michel Pereira took advantage of in their fight. Kicks really wilted Williams’ energy levels away as the fight progressed.

Khaos also ate heavy body kicks throughout that fight. Pereira won that fight going away and even discovered the takedown late in Round 3, something he should have utilized earlier.

Perhaps Khaos was too tired to defend against Pereira, but his takedown defense looked poor. His main defense for the takedown will be his striking power. I think that if Semelsberger plays it smart, he should utilize his kicks to wither away his opponent and make him uncomfortable.

Overall, I think this fight will come down to fight IQ for Semelsberger. Khaos wins most of his fights in the first round. If Semelsberger is smart, he will stand on the outside, pick apart his opponent’s lead leg, land a few takedowns, and pick up a decision victory.

Semelsberger’s strategy will be everything when predicting how this fight plays out.

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Williams vs. Semelsberger Pick

Semelsberger has been knocked out in the past so this could be a spot for Williams to get another highlight-reel knockout. However, his last fight should have put the blueprint out to defeating the knockout specialist.

Williams is a low-volume, high-power striker. If he clips you, it’s over. That is very possible in this fight as it is any fight he is in. However, I prefer the higher volume — more well-rounded fighter — especially as an underdog. It looks to me that Khaos will really struggle to win any decision with his output volume as low as it is.

If you are looking to bet on Khaos Williams, your best bet is going to be by knockout +125. Semelsberger, though, has more paths to victory. He could win via submission (+1100), decision (+325) or knockout (+475).

A variety of paths to victory are very important when betting the UFC and followers of my posts know I regularly take shots on the high-value method of victory props. I think Semelsberger could make this one look easy if he takes a smart approach.

To protect from an early firefight-like finish, I will take Semelsberger’s moneyline at +125. He is a very solid grappler with power in his hands to boot. His decision prop is +325 on PointsBet, which is an excellent value.

A decision win is his most likely path to victory, and I think he should get the job done here. I would bet Semelsberger’s moneyline down to any plus money price (+100 or better) and I would bet his decision prop down to +300.

Get your popcorn ready, this should be a good one.

The Pick: Semelsberger ML +125 (1u) and via decision +325 (.5u)

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