Check out the Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili prediction for UFC Freedom 250 on Sunday, June 14 along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Andre Fili, a veteran of the UFC organization since 2013, is somehow still just 35 years of age and able to fight to the level of his competition. Fili has alternated wins and losses for four years now, dating back nine bouts, as his performance seemingly hinges on the level of his opponent in each of his outings. He will present a challenge to Vinicius Oliveira, and an interesting one at that, as Fili undoubtedly has the tools to frustrate the hot and cold prospect. Let’s dive in and find the best betting angle available in this volatile matchup.
Here's my Oliveira vs. Fili pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
Oliveira
Fili
Record
23-4
25-13
Avg. Fight Time
12:05
10:43
Height
5'9"
5'11"
Weight (pounds)
145 lbs.
145 lbs.
Reach (inches)
70"
74"
Stance
Switch
Orthodox
Date of birth
11/30/1995
6/25/1990
Sig Strikes Per Min
4.73
3.88
SS Accuracy
43%
37%
SS Absorbed Per Min
2.70
4.34
SS Defense
57%
50%
Take Down Avg
1.45
2.32
TD Acc
46%
46%
TD Def
70%
71%
Submission Avg
0.2
0.2
This matchup brings a level of volatility to bettors simply because of each man’s style. Fili is a well-rounded fighter with the power and length to give real contenders trouble on his best night, but his inconsistent nature and inability to avoid costly mistakes have held him back throughout his career.
As for Oliveira, a tough weight cut his last time out, combined with a step-up in competition versus Mario Bautista, led to a very poor showing that saw his stamina drained only a couple of minutes into what was billed as a potential title eliminator. Oliveira landed just three significant strikes to the head of Bautista, and he was taken down five times. It was hard to come away from that fight night still believing Oliveira would hold onto his status as a future bantamweight contender.
Oliveira will now be moving up to featherweight, and I believe it will pay dividends in preserving his power and cardio. We have seen him look tired in spurts in the past, but he has been able to push through and explode with strikes to turn the tide back in his favor. That may not be as easy a task this Saturday against the experienced Fili. Fili will also enjoy a four-inch reach advantage, as well, which is something Oliveira didn’t have to deal with during his five-fight winning streak.
Oliveira should have the energy to press forward and create the wild exchanges he craves. It will be up to Fili to keep his opponent off balance by using sound footwork, managing distance well, and potentially changing levels to shoot for a takedown. I don’t factor the takedowns into my overall handicap of this fight too much, however. We have seen Fili fail to keep his opponent grounded in the past, but it would be advantageous for him to at least get the aggressive Oliveira to hesitate at times in pressing forward with reckless abandon.
Fili is a good counter-striker and feints well to keep his opponent guessing. The issue here is that these tools may not matter against the flat-footed style of Oliveira, as "Lokdog" seems determined to simply walk through the fire to deliver his own offensive attack. That is why I don’t expect this fight to make it to the judges’ scorecards.
Fili has shown to have substantial power in the early going of fights, and he will, at some point, catch Oliveira coming in. Stylistically, I would not recommend forcing Oliveira into your parlays this weekend, especially as he has grown to a larger favorite over the last 24-48 hours. However, I am expecting the more powerful version of Oliveira to show up on Saturday and ultimately find the finishing shot.
Oliveira had racked up five consecutive finishes prior to his last three wins over game opponents on the UFC main roster. He nearly found finishes in those three contests as well, and it certainly feels like he is ultra-dangerous despite the results listing unanimous decision on those three occasions. Fili does have defensive lapses when exchanging at a close distance by keeping his chin high – a mistake he cannot afford to make against the most powerful version of Oliveira to date.
Oliveira vs. Fili Pick, Prediction
Fili needs to execute a flawless gameplan to get his hand raised in this spot. If he does, it wouldn’t shock me if he capitalizes on an Oliveira mistake inside the distance. If Fili fails to negate the pressure of Oliveira, there are going to be several highly dangerous exchanges for the aging veteran. I do not expect him to survive the full 15 minutes in that case. I will be backing this fight to end inside of 15 minutes by playing it as a short favorite price tag.
John's Picks:Fili/Oliveira does not go the distance -140 (FanDuel)
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About the Author
John Lanfranca is a contributor at Action Network who specializes in NFL betting, with a focus on sides, totals, and player props. He has been betting since 2006 John has been involved with football since a young age and currently coaches at the high school level. He has cashed multiple five-figure entries in NFL DFS, which coincided with him entering the industry with Fantasysharks, where he contributed as a podcaster while also writing daily articles on betting, DFS, and the NFL Draft. John has shown a consistent ability to win when betting the NFL against the spread, regularly finishing seasons with a winning percentage in the 55-60% range
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