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Betting on the Warriors to Bounce Back Tonight? History Isn’t on Your Side

Dec 14, 2018 5:35 PM EST
Credit:

Golden State Warriors: Kevin Durant (35), center DeMarcus Cousins (0), and guard Stephen Curry (30)

Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

  • The Warriors shot 23% on 3-pointers against the Raptors at home on Wednesday.
  • Golden State is covering just 28% of first halves the game after shooting less than 33% from 3-point range, the least profitable team since signing Kevin Durant in that spot.

On Wednesday night in a prime time slot on ESPN, the Warriors played at home in Oracle Arena against the Raptors, who were without their star Kawhi Leonard. Golden State closed as a 7.5-point favorite against the Eastern Conference’s best team and lost by 20 points straight up.

In the loss, the Warriors shot an abysmal 6-of-26 (23.1%) from 3-point range, tied for their third-lowest shooting percentage from downtown this season and their fifth-lowest at Oracle Arena since adding Kevin Durant.

The normal sentiment, especially for the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA since the 2016-17 season, is that after an atrocious shooting performance, the Warriors would bounce back.

Not so fast my friend.



The Full Game

Since the beginning of the 2016-17, the Warriors are 35-17 (67.3%) straight up, but 20-31-1 against the spread (39.2%) the game after shooting less than 33% from 3-point range.

One of the reasons for the discrepancy? 43 of 52 of those games, had the Warriors as at least four-point favorites, with 25 of 52 having Golden State listed as a double-digit favorite.

Over that span, the Warriors are the fourth-least profitable team in the NBA after a bad 3-point shooting game, losing bettors 11.8 units, ahead of just Bulls, Hawks and Thunder.

When the team the Warriors face in this spot is over .500 for the season, they are 7-15 (31.8%) ATS, failing to cover the number by 6.7 points per game.

The First Half

If you thought the full game situation was bad for Golden State, check out their first-half numbers.

After shooting below 33% from 3-point range in their previous game, the Warriors in the first half of their next game are 28-22-2 SU (56%) and 14-36-2 (28%) against the first half spread, failing to cover the first half by 3.6 PPG.

Since 2016-17, no NBA team has lost bettors more money in the first half in this spot than the Golden State Warriors, burning 22.9 units.  The next-closest team ahead of the Warriors is the Atlanta Hawks, who are 6.73 units ahead of Golden State.

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