Bucks vs 76ers Prediction, Picks Today (Sunday, Feb. 25)

Here's everything you need to know about Bucks vs. 76ers on Sunday, Feb. 25 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Philadelphia to face the 76ers in a potential Eastern Conference Finals preview. Neither team is fully healthy, but full health is what they’d need if either team has any hopes of making a conference finals run this spring.

The Bucks will be without Khris Middleton, while Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as probable because of a nagging knee injury. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has missed the reigning MVP Joel Embiid with a meniscus injury that will sideline him likely through March and quite possibly into April.

Let's get to our Bucks vs. 76ers prediction and picks.

The Bucks are coming off a massive statement win against the Timberwolves Friday night — a win Milwaukee needed more nominally than for any standings purposes. If the season ended today, the Bucks would be the No. 3 seed in the East and only one game behind the Cavaliers for the No. 2 seed.

Since Doc Rivers took over as head coach, the Bucks have improved defensively, but the offense has taken a significant step back. In the 11 games under Rivers, the Bucks have the 10th-best defense but the 22nd-best offense, and they’re just 4-7 straight up and against the spread. Compare that with the Bucks under former head coach Adrian Griffin, when they were elite offensively and middling at best on defense, ranking fifth and 17th, respectively, according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Milwaukee’s defense was much better against the Timberwolves, but Minnesota is a team that struggles offensively, so it’s not entirely clear if it was a one-off small sample size or something meaningful going forward.

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The story of the 76ers has been the absence of Embiid, who’s been out since Jan. 30. Without him, Philadelphia has struggled, going just 4-6 straight up and ATS in February. Paul Reed is a solid backup, but the drop-off between Reed and Embiid is massive. The 76ers still outscore opponents in Reed’s minutes, but just barely (+0.4) compared to minutes with Embiid (+4.6).

However, 76ers head coach Nick Nurse is slowly figuring out ways to improve the team without the 7-footer in the mix. In the last five games, Philadelphia is 3-2 straight up and ATS, including two wins against the Cavaliers — although Cleveland was missing Donovan Mitchell in their most recent matchup.

The improvement has been in large part due to Philadelphia’s additions at the deadline. Adding sharpshooter Buddy Hield and veteran Kyle Lowry while shipping out Patrick Beverley are moves that have helped the 76ers add more depth and better fitting pieces. De’Anthony Melton is also a huge addition for Philadelphia after he returned against the Cavs on Friday following an 18-game absence.

My model shows value on Philadelphia as a home 'dog in this matchup. Even with Antetokounmpo likely to suit up and the absence of Embiid, I think the 76ers can hang with this Bucks team that’s riding high off a win against the No. 1 team in the Western Conference.

There’s no one like Antetokounmpo in the league, but this version of the Bucks has a similar profile to the Cavs, who Philadelphia just beat twice. I think the 76ers could win this outright, so I’ll take the points down to +3 for a full unit even if Antetokounmpo plays.

I’d consider the moneyline but would wait until official word on Antetokounmpo’s status before wagering.

Pick: 76ers +5

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