Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Odds, Pick: Minnesota Has Home Edge

Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Odds

The Cleveland Cavaliers continue their Western Conference tour with a matchup in Minnesota against the Timberwolves Saturday.

This matchup is notable as it marks the first time Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are schedule to meet since the two were traded from the UtahJazz over the summer. At the time of writing, Mitchell is questionable to play with an illness.

Let's take a look at the Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves odds and see where the value lies in tonight's matchup.

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Cleveland Cavaliers

This is the fifth game of a five game road trip for the Cavs. Road trips of this length are never easy to navigate in the NBA, but the Cavs have performed admirably as winners of two of their four games.

They’ll have a rest advantage over this Timberwolves team coming off a game last night. They also have a relatively clean injury report so injuries won’t be an issue for them here. Focusing on the court, the Cavs should be able to generate some clean looks from beyond the arc against a Timberwolves defense that ranks 24th in opponent 3-point rate. The Timberwolves have been starting a huge lineup of bigs and that leaves them susceptible to poor defensive rotations and breakdowns. Expect the Cavs to have a great day from the perimeter tonight.

Defensively, the Cavs have been outstanding — third in Defensive Rating despite playing the fourth-most difficult schedule of opposing offenses, according to Dunks And Threes. This isn’t a particularly challenging matchup as the Timberwolves rank 19th in Adjusted Offensive Rating on the year. They also matchup well as the Cavs rank eighth Field Goal Percentage allowed at the rim.

This sets them up well to face this Minnesota offense that currently ranks fourth in rim rate on the year. Between Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, I think the Cavs have the bigs necessary to match up with the T’Wolves here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota has been steadily improving after an awful start with five wins in its past six games. Since the new year began, the Timberwolves rank fifth in Net Rating and are top-10 in both Offensive and Defensive rating, per Cleaning the Glass.

They are shooting the ball extremely well over this stretch as they rank second in Effective Field Goal Percentage (58.9%). They’ll need that hot shooting to continue against this physical Cavaliers defense. Expect D’Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards to get going here as the Cavs are devoid of talented perimeter defenders. Aside from Isaac Okoro, the Cavaliers lack the type of perimeter defenders necessary to defend explosive guards like Edwards and Russell. I think we may see Russell have a big game here.

Defensively, the Wolves need to do a better job of finishing possessions as they rank dead-last in defensive rebound rate in the new year. The Cavs haven’t been a particularly dominant team on the offensive glass, but they obviously have talented bigs capable of making an impact in that area. Between Kevin Love, Mobley, and Allen the Wolves frontcourt should have their hands full on the glass tonight.

Cavaliers-Timberwolves Pick

This is a tough game to project, but I would have to lean towards the home team despite the fact they are on the second night of a back-to-back.

The Timberwolves have been rolling and they should be able to attack Garland and Mitchell in pick and rolls all night on offense. This is the last game of a road trip for the Cavs and I think they may be looking forward to returning to Cleveland after all of the flights they have been on for the past two weeks.

Take the Timberwolves +4 or better; I expect this to be a tightly contested game.

Pick: Wolves +4 or better

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