The Dallas Mavericks (1-2) and Miami Heat (0-3) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET from Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on NBA TV.
The Heat are 8.5-point favorites over the Mavericks on the spread, with the over/under set at 236.5 total points. The Heat are -330 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Mavericks are listed as +265 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mavericks vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Monday, October 26.
Mavericks vs Heat Prediction
- Mavericks vs Heat pick: Over 236.5 (-112)
My Mavericks vs Heat best bet is the total to go Over 236.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Mavericks vs Heat Odds
- Mavericks vs Heat spread: Mavericks +8.5 (-106), Heat -8.5 (-114)
- Mavericks vs Heat over/under: 236.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Mavericks vs Heat moneyline: Mavericks +265, Heat -330
Mavericks vs Heat NBA Preview
The Heat are arguably the NBA's biggest flop so far. They traded for Giannis Antetokounmpo, they are 0-3, and they have been down big in all three games so far.
Still, it's early; they're on the receiving end of some outlier shooting variance that will possibly (probably) level out as the season goes. But because of their emphasis on pace and drop coverage, it still doesn't feel like the Heat are playing to their personnel's strengths.
The best they've looked all year was their 23-point fourth-quarter comeback against the Hornets on Saturday, when they finally played Heat basketball and outscored Charlotte 25-4 for a stretch. That entire comeback was with Giannis off the floor… for whatever that's worth.
The Mavericks? They're 1-2 on the year with two blowout losses and an impressive victory in Indiana earlier this week. They don't have nearly the same expectations, even internally, and we're mainly watching their availability.
On the injury report, the Heat are clean as of Sunday night. Dallas? Already loaded.
Cooper Flagg (shoulder) is questionable. He exited with an injury against the Pacers on Friday, didn't return, and also sat out their Saturday loss to the Spurs.
Naji Marshall (illness), Tarik Biberovic (heel), Dereck Lively II (foot), and Santi Aldama (knee) are out. Caleb Martin (thumb) is doubtful.
Mavericks vs Heat Pick, Betting Analysis
On Buckets, I gave out Giannis to score 30+ points, but we can correlate that with the over.
The Heat are first in pace and 24th in defense as of Sunday.
There will be points. A ton of points, until Miami plays to the strength of their personnel, which evidently may not happen overnight.
Pick: Over 236.5 (-112, FanDuel)
