The Phoenix Suns (1-1) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0) will square off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. The game will be broadcast live on KSBI.
The Thunder are 9.5-point favorites over the Suns on the spread, with the over/under set at 218.5 total points. The Thunder are -375 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Suns are listed as +300 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Suns vs. Thunder predictions and NBA picks for Monday, October 26.
Suns vs Thunder Prediction
- Suns vs Thunder pick: Jalen Green Over 14.5 Points (+100, FanDuel)
My Suns vs. Thunder best bet is on Jalen Green to go over his points prop, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Download the Action Network app now for more NBA picks and analysis! If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Suns vs Thunder Odds
| Suns Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 218.5 -114o / -106u | +300 |
| Thunder Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 218.5 -114o / -106u | -375 |
- Suns vs Thunder spread: +9.5 (-110), -9.5 (-110)
- Suns vs Thunder over/under: 218.5 (-114o / -106u)
- Suns vs Thunder moneyline: Suns +300, Thunder -375
Suns vs Thunder NBA Preview
Phoenix Suns Betting Preview
Phoenix has shown both sides of itself in the first week. The Suns were run out of the gym 124-83 at Portland on opening night, then bounced back Saturday with a 131-122 win over Golden State, a game that looked a lot more like the team Jordan Ott wants: Devin Booker scored 43, the ball moved (33 assists), and Phoenix shot 58% while firing from three at a high clip.
That's the identity in Ott's second year, smaller, faster lineups that space the floor and live on threes, and with Dillon Brooks, Miles Bridges, Jalen Green, and rookie Koa Peat around a core that mostly stayed together, the Suns have enough shooting and ball handlers to get into their offense against anyone.
The weak spot is up front. Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery, and Oso Ighodaro is doubtful with an oblique strain, so Phoenix will play small whether it wants to or not, which suits its style but leaves it exposed on the glass.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Oklahoma City is the tougher assignment, even in a diminished state. The Thunder beat this same Suns team in the first round in April, and they opened this season with a 116-104 win at San Antonio behind 32 points from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. However, tonight's version looks different.
OKC is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing the Clippers on Sunday, a game that cost it Jalen Williams (severe lower left leg injury), and with Nikola Topić (back) and Thomas Sorber (knee) also out and Cason Wallace and Jaylin Williams being monitored, the Thunder's wing and guard rotation is thinner than usual.
That puts more of the load on Gilgeous-Alexander, Jared McCain, and Chet Holmgren, and it gives a Suns team that wants to play fast a better chance to turn this into a track meet.
Suns vs Thunder Pick, Betting Analysis
The number is low for what Jalen Green has shown he can do. A 14.5-point line is a buy-low opportunity on how much his role has shrunk, not on his ability, and our PRO projections have him at 17.7 points, 3.2 points above the line, which is where the 26.9% edge over the +100 price comes from.
Green has started both games and played 25 and 26 minutes, so the role is there, and his 10 and 12 points came on a combined 9-of-22 shooting (3-of-9 from three), a start that leaves room to bounce back.
He averaged 17.8 points in 32 games last season despite hamstring problems that kept him off the floor. Even with Booker leading the way, a team that plays this fast and attempts this many threes creates a lot of possessions for its starting guards.
The matchup also favors volume. With Williams out and the Thunder on a back-to-back, there are openings for a Suns guard who wants to attack.
The same small-ball lineups that keep the Suns' pace high make 15 points an attainable target for a starter, and Green only needs to hit 15 to cash. Green has scored 29, 31, and 36 in individual games in his Suns tenure, so he has a high ceiling on nights when the offense runs through him.
The risk is that Green's role is no longer secure. Phoenix has depth at guard, with Gillespie, Kennard, and Jordan Goodwin all trusted in key moments Saturday, and Green's efficiency was a career low last season, so a short leash could cap his minutes.
He also hasn't cleared this number, with 10 and 12 points on only 12 and 10 shots and a single free-throw attempt in two games, so he needs more volume than he's had so far. Green's hamstring history is a lingering concern, and Gilgeous-Alexander can still dictate the pace and keep Phoenix from getting out in transition.
Pick: Jalen Green Over 14.5 Points (+100, FanDuel)
