Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets-Oklahoma City Thunder
- Spread: Thunder -3.5
- Over/Under: 218
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: Fox Sports Oklahoma
The Denver Nuggets took an ugly loss in Houston on Thursday and the road doesn't get any easier for them on Friday. They face Russell Westbrook and the Oklahoma City Thunder on the second night of a back-to-back in a potential playoff matchup.
Can Denver get back on its feet, or is OKC in prime position for a win? Our analysts discuss.
What's at Stake
The Thunder can clinch a playoff spot with a win vs. Denver. That would be a much-needed highlight for Oklahoma City, which has been free-falling in the standings.
The Thunder have slipped over the past month from third in the West standings and four games out of first place to seventh in the West and just 0.5 games ahead of the Spurs and the No. 8 seed.
Betting Trends to Know
The Nuggets offense has been struggling mightily as of late, scoring fewer than 100 points in 3 straight games for the first time since January of 2018 (2nd time in over 3 years). In the three games, the Nuggets also shot less than 30% from three point range, going 18-80 (22.5%).
When the Nuggets have played on the road this season, the under is 23-12-1 (65.7%), going under the total by 2.9 PPG. In their last 17 road games, the under is 13-4 (76.5%) in Nuggets road games, going under the total by 5 PPG. — Evan Abrams
Denver is playing back-to-back games as an underdog against a Western conference playoff team, but it hasn't had much success in that spot this season. The Nuggets are 10-11 ATS as underdogs and 5-7 ATS against Western conference playoff teams.
The good news? The Nuggets are 2-0 ATS vs. the Thunder as a dog and 3-0 straight up against them this season. — Malik Smith
Mears: How I'm Handicapping Tonight's Game
Man are the Nuggets in a terrible slump right now.
Sure, a lot of it seems like just bad shooting — they posted an atrocious 42.1% eFG mark Thursday night against the Rockets in a blowout loss — but the underlying offensive metrics are quite concerning as well.
They’ve been so bad offensively over their past three games, and it’s easy to see why. During that stretch, they rank 24th in frequency of shots at the rim, 25th in Corner 3 rate and 26th in 3-point rate overall. They’re taking more than 40% of their shots from the mid-range, and thus it’s no surprise that they’re dead last during that stretch in eFG percentage.
It’s unclear exactly what’s going on with them right now. They seem a bit sluggish, which, to be fair, can happen at the end of the regular season. That’s evident in some of their other metrics recently: During that three-game stretch, they’re getting to the foul line on just 17.0% of their possessions and turning it over on 16.1% of them.
That’s … not a great ratio, and it indicates a team that’s mostly settling, be it due to the long season, fatigue or something else.
Of course, they did play three pretty tough teams in that stretch in the Rockets, Pacers and Pistons. Those teams aren’t world-beaters or anything, but they are some of the more motivated squads coming down the stretch, fighting for playoff seeding.
This is just a short-term funk for the Nuggets, no doubt, but the question is when things will turn around. I’m not sure the last three games say anything about their ceiling this year or future playoffs success, but it might say a lot about their prospects tonight.
A team that seems sluggish and incoherent is not a team I feel comfortable wagering on, especially against a tough Thunder team on a road back-to-back.
Of course, there are a couple caveats. First, the Nuggets have dominated the Thunder this season, winning each of the first three matchups — and winning them convincingly.
And the Thunder could be without Paul George, who is currently questionable with a shoulder injury. There’s perhaps no player more important to his team than PG this season: With him on the court, the Thunder have been a ridiculous 17.9 points per 100 possessions better than with him off. A high 12.3/100 of that is on the offensive end; the Thunder’s eFG mark falls off by 4.4% without him on the floor.
Given all of that information, I’m going to wait on the PG news and bet the under in this game if he ends up sitting it out. With the Nuggets’ poor offense right now plus the Thunder’s performance in general with George, I think points will come quite inefficiently in this one.
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
