Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction: Golden State Has Edge in Rivalry

Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds

The Memphis Grizzlies head to the San Francisco to take on the Golden State Warriors. The Grizzlies have struggled on the road while the Warriors have been transcendent at home. As NBA Rivalry Week continues, this might be the first matchup of teams that have some bad blood.

Let's break down the Grizzlies vs. Warriors odds and see if the reigning champions can step up and defend their home court.

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Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies received the brutal news that Steven Adams will miss the next three to five weeks with a PCL sprain in his right knee. This will likely thrust Xavier Tillman into the starting lineup as he started on Monday without Adams. Brandon Clarke also should see minutes depending on the situation and it's entirely possible the Grizzlies decide to deploy Jaren Jackson Jr. at center against smaller teams (such as the Warriors). Fortunately, the Grizzlies have seen Ja Morant (ankle) removed from the injury report but they will be without John Konchar (concussion).

The Grizzlies have been an average team on the road with an 11-13 record (8-15-1 ATS) compared to their excellent 20-3 record at home (14-8-1 ATS). They feed off of their home crowd and it shows. When these two teams met on Christmas Day in the Bay, the Warriors dismantled the Grizzlies 123-109 without Stephen Curry. Now, the Grizzlies have to deal with a team that has its MVP candidate back and they will be without one of their best big men.

One of the issues the Grizzlies have when playing the Warriors is that the Warriors are a strong team in transition. On the defensive side of the ball, the Warriors are about league average; however, when focusing on their transition defense, they allow the third-fewest points per 100 plays (117.2).

Considering the Grizzlies' biggest offensive strength is in transition, they are not able to attack Golden State effectively in this manner. It then forces them into their halfcourt offense, which has a bottom 10 mark in points per play (95.0), per Cleaning the Glass.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala (hip) and James Wiseman (ankle) is probable, but those are two guys who may not have even played in this matchup anyway.

The Warriors have been a dramatically different at home vs on the road this season. They are just 6-18 (8-16 ATS) on the road but 17-6 (14-9 ATS) at home. They have defended their home floor well, and tonight, they have a rest advantage over the Grizzlies as well with their last game being played on Sunday.

The Warriors have been relatively bad by their standards this season, but they've risen to the challenge when insulated by their home court. In their eight home games against top 10 teams in point differential they are 6-2 with a +7.8 point differential compared to their abysmal 1-8 record and -17.5 point differential in the same spot on the road.

We really need to treat the Home Warriors as a completely different team than the Road Warriors. At home, the Warriors have the fifth-best point differential of +7.7 and the second-best defense in the league allowing just 108.0 points per 100 possessions. Additionally, they've now been home for nearly a week after a 10-day road trip — they should be rested and ready for this game.

Grizzlies-Warriors Pick

The Grizzlies' biggest edge on a nightly basis is their ability to run in transition and dominate their opponents with an offensive blitz; however, this is neutralized by the Warriors' transition defense.

While Steven Adams' presence is not necessary in this matchup due to the Warriors' preference to play small, he was an edge over Kevon Looney that the Grizzlies no longer have.

I expect to see more Brandon Clarke today and would target some of his props, specifically Rebounds + Assists because he is a versatile big that should play well in this matchup. Despite this, it does nothing to change the Warriors' ability to defend Memphis in transition.

The Warriors are a transcendent home team this season, and I expect them to continue that regardless of the caliber of the opponent. I got this at -2.5 before the lines moved and I'd bet it up to -3.5.

Pick: Warriors -3 (Up to -3.5)

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