Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds & Picks: Spread, Total, Player Prop & More Bets for Christmas Day Matchup
Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors Odds
-110o / -110u
-110o / -110u
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The Warriors look lost without Stephen Curry in the lineup, and as a result, I expect the Grizzlies to continue their dominant play in this one.
Golden State’s bread and butter has always been its shooting from behind the arc, and not having Curry in the lineup affects that tremendously.
Additionally, the Warriors will be forced to go up against a Grizzlies team that has held their opponents to 35.4% shooting from 3 this season and 32.5% in their last five games.
This isn’t exactly a great matchup to get back to their old ways.
I think the absence of Curry is too much offensive production to replace, and running into the Grizzlies right now is a worst-case scenario for a team that can’t seem to defend the perimeter or the interior right now.
I like the Grizzlies to cover the spread here, and I would play it to -6.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors NBA Player Props & Picks
Desmond Bane, Over 18.5 Points (-105)
In what should have been one of the best Christmas Day games on the slate, the Golden State Warriors currently rank outside of the Play-In Tournament in the Western Conference. Sitting at 15-18, the Warriors will try to add onto their stellar 12-2 home record as they welcome in the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point road favorites as they have won eight of their last 10 games. Now that Desmond Bane has returned, the Grizzlies are fully healthy, while the Warriors are playing their fifth game without Stephen Curry.
There are several great props to target in this game, especially on the Grizzlies’ side. However, there is one prop that stands out above the rest.
After missing over a month and 17 straight games, Bane finally returned Friday night in the Grizzlies’ 125-100 victory over the Suns. Bane played 24 minutes, but he came out in the fourth quarter when the Grizzlies had a 110-83 lead with 6:43 left. Expect his minutes to increase Sunday.
No player on the Grizzlies played more than 28 minutes last game, so they should be well-rested coming into Christmas Day. Despite playing 24 minutes, Bane was able to score 17 points, as he shot a poor 4-of-13 from the field and 2-of-8 from behind the arc. He did make all seven of his free-throw attempts.
Before his injury, Bane scored 19 or more points in nine straight games while averaging 28 points per game during that time.
Ja Morant also missed time this season, but he played in all nine of those games with Bane. In his third season in the league, Bane is averaging a career-high 24.1 points per game.
The Warriors’ defense is not what it used to be. It currently ranks 25th in Defensive Rating (114.1) entering today’s games. Playing at the second-fastest Pace, the Warriors are allowing 117.9 points per game, which ranks as the fourth-highest in the league.
This is a great spot for exposure to Bane’s points.
This points prop line started at 16.5 points and is currently at 18.5. I would take this up to 19.5 on FanDuel, but put this bet in before it continues to climb closer to game time.
The Grizzlies have a 116.75 implied team total as they are 4.5-point road favorites.
I love Bane and the Grizzlies in this matchup.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors NBA Same Game Parlay Odds & Pick
The Parlay: (+230)
- Grizzlies -4.5
- Jordan Poole Over 23.5
Memphis Grizzlies -4.5
The Golden State Warriors are terrible without Stephen Curry. The Warriors have played seven games this season without him and they are 1–6 in those games with an averaging scoring margin of -17.0.
Put another way, without Curry in games so far this season, the Warriors are being outscored by about one point every six possessions. That’s abysmal and would basically make Golden State the worst team in the league over a full season. Three of those six losses were by 30 or more, and all but one of them was by at least nine points.
Without Curry, the Warriors aren’t just bad - they’re not even competitive. Well, Santa isn’t bringing Curry for Christmas this year, so this rematch against a good, feisty Grizzlies team could get ugly. Andrew Wiggins is a question as well, and Klay Thompson continues to be listed as day-to-day.
As for the Grizzlies, they’re 8–2 in December, with every win by at least eight points, covering this spread with ease. Ja Morant is playing MVP level ball, and Jaren Jackson has immediately brought this defense back up to a high level too. This is a team that already gave a healthy champion Warriors team all it could handle in the playoffs, and they will want this one badly.
The Warriors will always be a public team, Steph or not, especially at home. But when Curry’s out, home, away, or on the moon doesn’t seem to matter for this team. The fact that it’s a public Christmas game at home is buying us some value on this line.
Give me the Grizzlies to cover, and I don’t blame you if you want to consider an alternate line for a big win. Memphis should roll.
Jordan Poole Over 23.5
The one guy who has thrived without Curry this season is Jordan Poole. He is more Splash Cousin than third Splash Brother when all three guys play, but when Steph is sidelined, Poole ups the volume in a big way.
In seven games without Curry this season, Poole is scoring 27.6 PPG with 4.3 assists too. He’s scored at least 20 points in all but one Curry-less game, and he’s hit 26 or more in all but two. That also includes two explosions with 36 and 43 points. When the shots start falling - especially with the home crowd roaring - it can turn into a Poole Party in a hurry.
Andrew Wiggins is a question mark for Christmas too, and even Klay Thompson is playing through some nagging injuries. Poole should get all the volume he can handle, and he tends to play a big role even when the game gets away so that’s important here too.
Poole is averaging 25.8 PPG as a starter, and even more with Curry out. This line is a couple points too low. I’ll play Poole to go over 23.5 points, and I can’t help but sprinkle a little bit of my bet on +850 to score 35 too in case we get a little Christmas Poole Party.
Editor’s Note: If you bet Poole at his current line of 25.5 and the Grizzlies at -6.5 at BetMGM, your payout would be +360.
NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr.
|Odds||Brooks (+550) | Jackson Jr. (+700)|
|Book||DraftKings | FanDuel|
The Memphis Grizzlies face Golden State Warriors in the primetime matchup on Sunday. Steven Adams (75% opening-tip win rate) will take on Kevon Looney (52% win rate) at tip-off. Adams won three of four tips against Looney last season.
These two teams faced each other 10 times last season, with Memphis winning the tip-off in eight of the games and scoring first in seven of the games.
The Grizzlies have scored first in 77% of games this season — that is by far the highest rate in the league. Ja Morant has been hot lately, scoring first in five of the past 10 games for Memphis.
The Warriors have allowed the opposing center, power forward or small forward to score first in 85% of games this season. The Warriors defend the point guard position on opening possessions better than any team in the league, allowing the point guard to score first in just 3% of games.
I’ll go with Dillon Brooks (has taken first field goal attempt in 39% of games started this season) and pair him with Jaren Jackson Jr. expecting one of those two to get the first basket.
Pick: Brooks +550 (down to +450, 0.5u at DK)