Brandon Anderson

I have the Texans, Chiefs, and Eagles all over 70% to win their watered-down divisions. That makes each of them a great standalone division bet: Houston +110, Kansas City -105, and Philadelphia -130. This is a great way to parlay three favorites together at +633, when I make the three parlayed about a coin flip. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-parlay-division-winner-picks-for-eagles-chiefs-texans

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

NBA Eastern Conf preview pod Buckets 🎙️🪣

I'm looking at Ben Johnson and what do Ben Johnson's offenses do? They run the ball into the end zone. Look no further than what David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have been up to the last few years. That duo has combined for an absurd 41 touchdowns over the last two seasons. Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. Give me all the vulture TDs. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

It's-So-Over-We-Are-So-Back division parlay https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-9-parlay-predictions

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 future for every team! Read more ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff. The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10. And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses. As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error. San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC. It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now. FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well. How about taking it a step further? If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs. I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs

Bosa's loss is a huge deal for an already undermanned defensive line. Rookie Mykel Williams has been a difference maker in the run game but he may now see Bosa's usual double teams, and there are not much other pass-rush options outside of part-timer Bryce Huff. The 49ers are already weak at defensive tackle and safety. I make Bosa worth over a point to the spread, leaving San Francisco no real defensive strength now outside of Fred Warner. Defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has been great but has his work cut out for him. Bosa's loss drops the 49ers from a fringe top-10 defense to fringe bottom 10. And remember that soft schedule? Upcoming games against the Jaguars and Colts look a bit tougher now than expected, and a stretch against the Jags, Rams, Bucs, Falcons and Texans could mean more close games and maybe a few losses. As great as it feels to be 3-0, the 49ers are only one game up on every other team in the NFC West. There's still very little separation or margin for error. San Francisco doesn't get to catch its breath til a Week 14 bye, so the 49ers will just have to play through the injuries. And a wild-card spot is no certainty with the Packers, Vikings, Commanders, Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals all sitting at 2-1 but outside the division lead in the stacked NFC. It's not hard at all to envision the 49ers losing the NFC West. That looks like the league's toughest division, and I've got the Rams power rated clearly ahead of San Francisco right now. FTN has the Niners are 77% to make the playoffs and 23% to miss. That implies slight value on a +380 ticket to miss at BetMGM, implied 21% — and that could be a nice ticket to build around if the slew of injuries continue. You can bet under 11.5 wins at even money as well. How about taking it a step further? If things go even a little bad, the 49ers could slip quickly in the NFC West. San Francisco is +450 to finish third in the division and +1100 to finish last (bet365). San Francisco could even cash one of those tickets and make the playoffs. I bought 49ers futures back in February based on their long-tail upside, but it might be time to consider the long-tail downside with injuries piling up in a brutally tough division. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-futures-picks-predictions-ranking-which-undefeated-teams-could-miss-playoffs

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Could Jackson come back with a vengeance and tear up that soft schedule to lead the league in touchdown passes? He's +3000 to do so at bet365. Jackson threw for 10 TDs in four games and has an extra game with the bye passed, so that 2.5/game puts him on pace for 37.5 scores even with the missed games. The leader in this category is on pace for 41. Jackson has an outlier TD rate so far this year but he has led the league in that stat twice before, including last season, so it might not be an outlier at this point. He's +105 to hit 30 pass TDs and +420 to get to 35 at FanDuel if you want to ride the escalator.

The Ravens offense and defense have both faced the toughest opposing schedule by DVOA so far; they'll face the 27th- and 31st-ranked schedules the rest of the way. That's a wild swing, and it means the Ravens aren't dead. I can't get there on the high-end futures just yet. Miss me with a Lamar Jackson MVP ticket or Baltimore to win the AFC or Super Bowl. Even if you believe, the odds simply didn't drop enough to provide value — but they did in the season leader markets. Even with a slow start, Henry is on pace for 1,244 yards, and his historic splits are consistent: slow starts in September, ramping up into the fall, at his best in December and January as defenses wear down. Henry finally gets FB Patrick Ricard back, a huge addition along with LT Ronnie Stanley, and the return of Isaiah Likely means more heavy TE sets, another boon. Henry is -115 at FanDuel to hit 1,250 rushing yards, which he's already on pace for, and +310 to get to 1,500+ yards, a number he's hit in four of his last five healthy seasons. We're probably going to need a Jonathan Taylor injury to hit it, but rushing yards leader is also a play at +1400 (bet365). Taylor has a significant injury history and that field is wide open if he misses time. It's time to invest in Ravens futures — the statistical kind.

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

New award!! Williams is one of the best to ever play on the offensive line. And even at age 37, he still hasn't lost a step. He is as good and as valuable as anyone when he's out there — and noticeably just as valuable when he's not. Williams misses a few games each season but for an award without stats, that's probably not as important. He's arguably the most valuable player on the 49ers, a team capable of winning 12-plus games and making a push for the NFC 1-seed, and that's for a team without a clear MVP candidate, which makes this an excellent way of rewarding a great San Francisco season. If nothing else, this could just be a legacy pick for Williams. Who better to win the first Protector of the Year award than the guy who plays the most valuable position on the line just about as well as anyone who's ever played it? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! Thuney is widely regarded as one of the league's best guards, and he's got an easy narrative case. He already filled in admirably at both C and LT for the Chiefs en route to a Super Bowl berth last season — now he moves to the Bears, who could see a huge bump in line play and win profile. He might even get double credit if Kansas City's line falls off some without him. Thuney has committed five penalties the last three seasons combined. In nine NFL seasons, he's played in six Super Bowls with four rings and four All-Pro berths — and two missed starts. If Chicago makes a leap with an improved line, Thuney would be an excellent candidate at a pretty long number. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

New award!! There are two linemen at each position on the six-man panel, which means two centers — the one position there's not multiple of on the line. And with Frank Ragnow retired, Humphrey is probably the most surefire consensus best in the NFL at his position. Many centers are great at run blocking, but Humphrey is one of the few who's also great at pass blocking. Life will be much harder this year without Joe Thuney next to him, though. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-protector-of-the-year-predictions-odds

If Houston does push to the top of the AFC, DeMeco Ryans will get credit for the defense and could even get this as something of a career achievement award for the three-year arc of a team that won just three games in 2022. Ryans is certainly a longer shot, but he's also a great way to invest in a post-hype Texans team that's quietly become a bit underrated and overlooked. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

POST PARSONS UPDATE: no longer interested in investing, cash out if possible What if Schottenheimer is a decent or even good head coach? What if he puts together an innovative offense and utilizes exciting young names on his staff like Klayton Adams and Ken Dorsey? What if Matt Eberflus puts a talented defense back together? Dallas could easily push for a division crown and then the sky's the limit in the NFC. This is a contrarian bet against myself. It's a great way to invest in the Cowboys this season at a supremely discounted price. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-coach-of-the-year-predictions-picks-odds

Robinson quietly did a terrific job coaxing an above average Offensive DVOA out of this team last year, considering he had to do so as a first-time playcaller with an old QB who couldn't move in Kirk Cousins and then a rookie debut in Michael Penix. If Penix continues to improve and keeps hitting those deep shots all season, this could be an explosive offense and Robinson could be the next Ben Johnson — architect of a great offense and future head coach, the talk of the league. Robinson is a bullseye for Assistant Coach of the Year, and this is a great way to bet on a high-end outcome for the Falcons Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Minter came with Jim Harbaugh from Michigan and worked wonders with an under-talented Chargers roster, turning them into one of the league's surprisingly great pass defenses. Minter mixed up coverages early on and got breakout seasons from young players like CB Tarheeb Still and LB Daiyan Henley. The Chargers offense could struggle some this year with stud T Rashawn Slater out. If L.A.'s defense carries it back to the playoffs with another aggressive campaign, Minter will be a buzzy head coaching candidate and could very well win this award. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Kingsbury did a great job adding creative run schemes to his playcalling, and he also called the plays that repeatedly helped the team convert in huge fourth downs all season, going a ridiculous 20-of-23. What if Kingsbury and the offense keep that up with an even bigger step forward, but Daniels isn't ready for MVP quite yet? Washington's defense is old and not great, so this would definitely be the side of the ball that gets credit. Kingsbury could be the perfect guy to get credit for a successful Commanders campaign, and he's got that failed head coach bounce-back narrative in his favor as well. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-assistant-coach-of-the-year-predictions-odds

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

1 Futures Bet Every Team. Read more: ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-picks-predictions-1-futures-bet-for-all-32-teams

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NBA season preview Bet-a-Palooza pods 🪣 At least 1 bet for every team! 🏀

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49ers as next year’s Eagles? My first 2026 Super Bowl pick Hot Read 🔥: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

Next year’s Vikings? Elite D, great O weapons & new OC Kubiak elevates O: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2026-nfl-futures-expert-projects-next-season-super-bowl-pick

MVP requires stats, wins, and narrative. Rams offense should be far healthier + Davante Adams, which could mean huge numbers and a push into top 5 all time pass yards, plus big wins and a top 2 seed if the young defensive front continues to improve. Would be a crowning HOF achievement at his age and an obvious media narrative boost. No reason a QB this good on a team this talented to be priced this long. Should be half this number max. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-mvp-futures-picks-best-5000-long-shot-on-board

BEARS ISLAND 🏝️🏝️🏝️🏝️🏝️ Chicago is my annual worst to first division winner pick, and with that huge leap in coaching and offensive line, how could it ever have been anyone other than Ben & Caleb? Read the whole case ⬇️ https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-futures-worst-to-first-rankings-tiers-predictions

We already know Tagovailoa will post awesome numbers for Mike McDaniel when healthy, and we already know the Dolphins with Tua healthy are a winning team. Tagovailoa has a winning record in all three McDaniel seasons and 4500/30 pace over 17 games. Of course, Tagovailoa is a significant injury risk, but if he actually stays healthy for most of the season, the Dolphins should push for nine or 10 wins and the playoffs. Tagovailoa should be in the mix with any other QB option for this award. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The entire world saw Greenlaw tear his Achilles in the Super Bowl. He played just two games last year, but we already know Greenlaw can be about as good and impactful as any linebacker in football when healthy. Now Greenlaw joins a Denver defense that already ranked among the league's finest last season. If the Broncos take another step and are a clear No. 1 unit with Greenlaw buzzing around the field at the heart of everything, he'll get a ton of media attention. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-comeback-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

TRADE UPDATE: happy with our huge CLV, clear media fav now, but new unknown situation means caution too. If you missed, don’t chase steam now. Parsons was the betting favorite in each of the last two seasons, and he'd absolutely be my favorite again if I were making the odds. It seems pretty clear Parsons will win DPOY at some point in his career, maybe more than one. He would be my clear favorite for an award we overwhelmingly give to favorites. Parsons was priced at +600 last season; I wouldn't price him longer than +300. But you can bet him at +800 at DraftKings or Caesars, or an outlandish +1350 at Circa. I don't just like Micah Parsons for DPOY — I absolutely love him. He's my favorite awards bet of the entire 2025 awards circuit, and I'm investing multiple units while we get this outrageous discount. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

There's reason to believe Hunter, not Brian Thomas Jr., will step into that power slot role Godwin occupied, especially considering his elite Reception Perception route tree. I'm of the belief that Hunter will be a part-time defender, especially after missing much of training camp with that injury. And maybe, rather than those snaps taking away from Hunter's offensive upside, we're thinking about it all wrong — I think any defensive snaps and the occasional highlight play or kick return could just act as extra credit for Hunter's OROY case. I think the positional uncertainty and injury questions are buying us value. Read more: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

The Broncos want to run to protect Bo Nix, and Denver has the consensus second-best offensive line in the league. And though Javonte Williams stunk last season, he did get 217 carries. Sean Payton's system has been great for RBs, with his team finishing top seven in rushing TDs over half his seasons as a head coach and a long history of using his backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara won OROY under Payton, and Harvey has flashed versatility as a receiver in the preseason, and he ran for 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs each of his last two seasons at Central Florida. Harvey remains undervalued in both fantasy football and betting. He'd have top-five odds for me to win OROY, at least 10% likely, so that makes him a serious bargain at +3000 (DraftKings), or +3600 at Circa if you have it. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Nate Tice called Kaleb Johnson "Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry," and now he'll play in the zone-heavy Arthur Smith run scheme that helped Henry leap to stardom. Johnson had a monster 240/1,537/21 line on the ground at Iowa a year ago and could take many of the 263 carries Najee Harris had last season. Smith's offenses routinely rank near the top half of the league in rushing attempts so Johnson could be in for a big role once he earns the staff's trust — and this young offensive line has upside. He's a good long shot at +4000 (FanDuel) or +5500 (Circa). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

"Bill" has had a great preseason, and it's often a good idea backing a RB playing next to a QB running threat. JCM has only seven receptions in his career, so you'll likely need a bunch of yards and a heap of short TDs, but that could be possible for a Washington offense that's invested a lot in its line. Croskey-Merritt is shooting up fantasy boards and odds alike. He's a starting RB on a good offense — that means he's worth a play in theory, but be sure to shop around. I'd sprinkle him at +3500 at BetRivers or +4000 (Circa), but probably stop before +2500. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Simmons is also extremely talented — Brandon Thorn's No. 1 rated blocker in the draft when healthy — and Simmons has looked healthy and outstanding and will step immediately into a starting left tackle role, protecting the blindside of the best player in the game. If Simmons plays well and Patrick Mahomes finally has time to throw it deep again, we're going to hear Josh Simmons talked about as an "it" rookie on every broadcast all season. It's the Chiefs, after all! Heck, we'll probably even hear the Kelces talk about Simmons on the booming "New Heights" podcast at some point, seeing as one one of them will be lining up next to him at tight end and the other one is an offensive lineman. All we need now is Taylor Swift to show up to a Kansas City game rocking a No. 71 Simmons jersey and this Love Story will be complete. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He should get plenty of early work for the Texans with Joe Mixon (ankle) out for the first four weeks of the season, and it sure looks like Mixon could be out even longer. Chubb's obviously got his own injury history, but he is a great pure runner and a guy that has a nose for the end zone. In the five seasons he was healthy, Chubb scored at least eight rushing touchdowns in each of them, hitting 12 twice. Chubb will be running for offensive coordinator Nick Caley, who coached with the Rams under Sean McVay and previously under Patriots OC Josh McDaniels. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

Johnson's offense ranked top three in rushing touchdowns all three years in Detroit. One of those years, D'Andre Swift was on the team — but he only had five TDs. Jamaal Williams had 17 (2022) and led the league. Remember, I ranked the Bears offense eighth in the NFL in my offense preview column. They also have one of the best offensive lines and offensive coordinators — there will be plenty of scoring opportunities if it goes according to plan in Chicago. All the reporting out of Chicago indicates that Roschon Johnson is the goal-line guy. So 150-to-1 to lead the league? Sign me up. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

In his last two years at UCF, Harvey was a scoring machine, racking up 38 rushing touchdowns. Sean Payton loves to pound the rock. His teams have been top seven in rushing touchdowns in 10 of the 17 years as head coach. We've seen big double-digit TD seasons from Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Harvey also gets to run behind an offensive line widely regarded as the second best in the league, and one of the league's best defenses could set the Broncos up routinely with short fields and easy scoring chance. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-props-long-shot-picks-for-nick-chubb-roschon-johnson-rj-harvey

The Eagles were playing with a lead in almost every game, and that made them the run-heaviest team in the league in second halves. It's natural to expect Philadelphia to come back to earth a little in 2025, and that should mean more passing opportunity for Brown. Brown averages over 10 yards per target for his career and almost 16 yards per catch, insane efficiency metrics. He paced for 127 catches in 13 games last season, and he had a seven-game stretch the previous season with 120+ yards in every game and a pace for 2,355 yards. With a pass-heavier script in Philadelphia, Brown has serious potential to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in league history. He's also got an easy narrative story as potentially the sneaky-best receiver in the NFL that's been hiding behind a run-heavy offense. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Brian Thomas Jr. was electric as a rookie. His final seven-game pace was for 121 catches, 1,640 yards, and 12 touchdowns. He'd need to hit those numbers and then some to win this, but now he should get a big boost in a Liam Coen offense that helped Mike Evans and Chris Godwin put up monster numbers a year ago in Tampa Bay. The arrival of Travis Hunter could take some targets from Thomas, but Jacksonville lost a ton of receptions to Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis, so there should plenty of balls to go around from Trevor Lawrence. Hunter's presence could also leave Thomas in more frequent single coverage. Jacksonville has a bad defense and poor run game and offensive line, so it really has to be the passing game if the Jaguars are to succeed. That could set Thomas up as this year's Ja'Marr Chase if everything clicks. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Tyreek Hill finished top four in OPOY voting two years straight before falling off the map last season. He's 31 now and we'll probably never get that Tyreek back, but I'd hate myself for passing on him at such a long number if I'm wrong. This is a bet on both Tyreek and Tua Tagovailoa staying healthy, so it's asking for a lot, but Tyreek has record-breaking talent if it's still in there somewhere. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

I will break my own rules and place a small bet on McCaffrey — because he would be my outright favorite, and I'd place his odds closer to +800 or +1000 among the favorites and don't expect +2200 to be available later. McCaffrey plays an incredibly soft schedule, and he consistently puts up elite numbers when healthy, so his OPOY season wasn't even really a significant outlier. McCaffrey is still only 29 and always pushes 2,000 scrimmage yards with his receiving abilities, and he has a great nose for the end zone and should score plenty for the 49ers. McCaffrey has finished first, third and seventh in OPOY voting, and he has a cake schedule right out of the gates. It's impossibly tough to repeat as OPOY but there's too much value at +2200 to not add him to our position while that number is there (at Caesars). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-offensive-player-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Williams posted 4.5 or 5.0 sacks all three seasons as part of Georgia's rotation — just 14 total in three seasons — though he did add 23 tackles for losses. Those aren't overwhelming flash stats, but they're close enough to get a look as he moves into more of a feature role in the pros, especially since he can also slide inside and rush over the tackle. That could keep him on the field for all three downs. Don't underestimate the coaching either. Saleh has great defensive chops, and Williams should also benefit from playing for legendary San Francisco defensive line coach Kris Kocurek, who repeatedly coaxes big seasons out of his linemen. Maybe Williams will be his next success story. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

He led the Big Ten with 90 tackles last year and also added four sacks and two interceptions. Cleveland is suddenly lacking linebacker options so Schwesinger should be a day one starter. Maybe he puts up numbers similar to what Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah did two years ago for Jim Schwartz, 101 combined tackles with two picks and 3.5 sacks. Schwesinger had a top-50 athleticism score among over 3,200 linebacker prospects since 1987, so he's elite at everything and can certainly make some big plays. Schwesinger has had great reviews in the preseason and even had six tackles in 13 snaps one game. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-predictions-odds

Jackson has never lost more than five games in a season and he's proven he has the advanced metrics in addition to the ever-present flash and stats; his abilities as a runner also seem to scramble voters' brains so that even a potential dip in passing stats may not matter. Likewise his ongoing fumbling problem, when only interceptions seem to count front of mind. There's also a very easy Jackson narrative. True, he's yet to make that big playoff run, but there's also ubiquitous sentiment that Jackson was "robbed" of this award last year. That's a column for another day, but if Jackson and the Ravens lap the field again, voters will make no mistake about it this time around. At the end of the day — and I can't believe I of all people am writing this — Jackson might simply be the age-old MVP formula: the best player on the best team in the regular season. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

Purdy was in the mix two years ago before injuries derailed San Francisco's season, but he may have actually earned a modicum of respect with his play last season. With lesser weapons and less help around him, Purdy might actually get some credit. The numbers and advanced metrics will be there in a Kyle Shanahan system — Purdy led the league in both EPA and EPA + CPOE in 2023, and he's over a 5% TD rate and almost 9.0 yards per attempt for his career. There's also an obvious narrative in play for a guy who was Mr. Irrelevant as the last pick in the draft. Did Purdy take another leap? Is he a top-10 QB now? https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/2025-nfl-mvp-predictions-odds-qs

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Boost available today only at DK. The Bears have famously never had a 4000 yard passer, but Jared Goff averaged 4550 his 3 years with Ben Johnson and was never below 4438. If Caleb plays 17, this is a really bad number.

🐻🏝️ For 3 quarters, it was all so beautiful. Caleb Williams led Chicago to an opening drive touchdown, something it didn't do all last season, and the Bears were rolling early. Williams showed vastly improved pocket presence and scrambling ability and got the ball to his playmakers quickly. Chicago moved the ball early and repeatedly got into field goal position, even confident and in control enough to go aggressively on a couple fourth downs. The Bears added a pick-6 and led 17-6 into the fourth quarter in front of a rocking home crowd — and then it all went sideways. Chicago played without LB T.J. Edwards and both its top corners, and when another corner went down mid-game, the seams busted open. The Bears offense disappeared badly late, Caleb Williams couldn't hit a throw, and suddenly everything was awful, and all too familiar. The advanced metrics for Williams weren't pretty. He finished with a 29% off-target rate, -8 completion percentage over expected, and a 46% accurate-throw rate, all bottom four in the NFL, and he airmailed several key throws. Williams finished with five overthrows on the night, and now has 52 since the start of last season, a full 17 more than anyone else in the league, almost 50% higher! I'm not sure this was on Ben Johnson. Johnson's head coaching debut left something to be desired. His challenge was poor, and his decision to kick deep was questionable at best. Chicago also had 12 penalties for 127 yards — some questionable, but that's on coaching too. But Johnson called a brilliant opening drive to get Williams comfortable and in the end zone early, and he consistently schemed receivers open. Williams was just missing them. Ben Johnson is not a fraud. He's an outstanding play caller, and we have three years of data to prove that. The Bears were up 7% playaction rate compared to last season and up 12% in pre-snap motion; the Lions without Johnson dropped by 13 and 23%, respectively. The jury is still out on Williams. He showed clear improvement Monday night — his pocket presence and scrambling stood out, and he played more within himself and made fewer mistakes — but his accuracy leaves plenty to be desired, and there's a lot to fix. That's not great news, but it's not death either. Remember, last year was basically a lost season for Williams and the Bears. That means Monday was effectively a debut, and that was a pretty solid debut for both QBs from that perspective. FTN still gives Chicago 31% to make the playoffs, showing value at +270 (Caesars), and even gives the Bears a surprising 15% chance at the division, leaving clear value at +1300 (Caesars), an implied percentage under half that (7%). Bear down? How about double down? Bears Island ain't sunk yet, and it's a great spot to invest with Ben Johnson's former team up next.

For most of Sunday night, I spent the evening cackling at my screen. How could you not? Lamar Jackson danced around the screen, firing lasers to a wide-open-again Zay Flowers and turning 30-yard sacks into 19-yard scampers. When he got tired, Baltimore handed it off to Derrick Henry, who trucked a few defenders and burst down the sidelines for another long run. Somewhere in between, we remembered DeAndre Hopkins was on this team when he snagged a one-handed score. Flowers had a career-high 143 yards. Henry had 169 yards and two scores. Jackson had a 98th percentile 0.69 EPA per play on over 11 YPA. The Ravens posted a 0.39 EPA per play on the night, 98th percentile and over 50% ahead of the Bills, while averaging 8.6 yards per play. And then, like it has so many times before, it all came crashing down. Henry fumbled, the secondary couldn't stop a nosebleed, the offense disappeared late and the Ravens choked, losing by a score of 41-40. The Ravens had around a 99% probability of winning with under five minutes left; now they're 0-1. It's the eighth loss since 2021 for Baltimore when it hit a win probability of at least 90%, five more than any other team. Baltimore just keeps blowing these games somehow. And at some point, that has to be a pattern… right? It is a pattern — but maybe not the one you think. The pattern is that Baltimore keeps blowing quality and even great opponents out of the water and getting to 90 and even 99% win probability. That means more chances to blow an occasional lead late, so that part is happening too because hey, the ball is oblong and football is hard. But what Sunday night told us most meaningfully with 21 weeks of football to go is that Baltimore is the best team in football — by far. The Bills are No. 2 in my power ratings matrix, a loaded roster led by the reigning MVP, and the Ravens treated them like a plaything for 55 minutes. Baltimore looked like it could score anytime it wanted. The Ravens were embarrassing the Bills, in their own home. I have the Ravens almost four full points to the spread ahead of the Bills — as far ahead of Buffalo as the Bills are ahead of the Steelers and Seahawks. It's Baltimore and everyone else. That doesn't mean the Ravens are perfect. The defense allowed seven trips to the red zone, and the veteran secondary disappointed. Baltimore consistently gets overly conservative calling plays, especially holding a late lead. The Ravens had a 48% neutral pass rate, ahead of only the Jets. That's unacceptable when your QB is a two-time MVP averaging a first down per throw. But Sunday night should make us more confident in the Ravens, not less. It's not possible to give Baltimore a bigger test than it got Sunday night — on the road, in primetime, against the best non-Ravens team in the league — and Baltimore completely aced the test for 55 minutes before sports happened. The Ravens were so good Sunday that their Super Bowl odds barely changed at books, despite the loss. Their odds actually went up at FTN. That means it's time to invest in Baltimore stock in a rare buy-low spot — possibly our last. FTN projects Baltimore to go 12.1-3.9 the rest of the way. The Ravens are still projected with the second-best record in the NFL, 0.3 wins behind Buffalo, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs, a 75% shot of winning the AFC North, and over 50% at a top-2 seed. Pick your favorite bet or take the whole escalator. There's clear value on the division at -135 (FanDuel), implied 57%, especially with a get-right Browns game up next. There's also value on a Ravens 1-seed (+550, BetMGM), and especially on most wins (+900, DraftKings), since the Ravens can split that one even with a Buffalo tie. Sunday didn't show us Baltimore is a fraud. It showed us the Ravens are the best team in football, by far — and simultaneously gave us a chance to invest.

Heading into MNF Wk2, FTN has the Raiders at 58% to make the playoffs, best of any team in the division. The QB + coach upgrade was hugely apparent in the opener, and it’s a great spot at home Monday night and now maybe note Jayden Daniels next week, and a playoff spot just opened up with the Joe Burrow injury. 58% is a bit rich for me considering how bad this defense looks on paper, but that’s more than double +250 and this line hasn’t dropped even after Denver and Kansas City lost, and Cincinnati lost Burrow, and it was already valuable before that. Gotta take a swing now. Nibbling the long division price too at +900, implied 10%. Win tonight and they’re alone in first.

Heading into MNF Wk2, FTN has the Raiders at 58% to make the playoffs, best of any team in the division. The QB + coach upgrade was hugely apparent in the opener, and it’s a great spot at home Monday night and now maybe note Jayden Daniels next week, and a playoff spot just opened up with the Joe Burrow injury. 58% is a bit rich for me considering how bad this defense looks on paper, but that’s more than double +250 and this line hasn’t dropped even after Denver and Kansas City lost, and Cincinnati lost Burrow, and it was already valuable before that. Gotta take a swing now. Nibbling the long division price too at +900, implied 10%. Win tonight and they’re alone in first.

Kitchen Sink Week YOLO nibble 🙃 Miami offense showed some signs of life, and if the Dolphins somehow escape Buffalo with a win, the next month of games against the Jets, Panthers and Browns suddenly looks very winnable. It feels crazy right now, but the NFL stands for Not For Long. The Dolphins might be worth a tiny nibble at +5000 to win the AFC East (DraftKings), just in case they somehow pull the upset on Thursday are are suddenly one game back with a dangerous offense and a super winnable upcoming schedule. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more

Everyone's buzzing about Baker Mayfield after two late-game comebacks and no interceptions yet, but Mayfield has been incredibly lucky to not throw a pick yet. He leads the league with six Turnover Worthy Plays so far per PFF, tied with Bo Nix, who has looked about as bad as any starter. In fact, only six quarterbacks over half that many — an ugly list that includes Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Bryce Young, and J.J. McCarthy. That makes this a great opportunity to buy low on a Baker Mayfield interception, a rare chance to get in at a plus number at +105 (bet365). Mayfield led the league last year with 16 interceptions. He threw at least one interception in over half his games each of the past two seasons for the Bucs, 56% of them overall, and that about matches his lifetime number with at least one pick in 60-of-105 starts, a 57% hit rate. That should mean a clear minus number for interception odds, and we're getting plus money. How about a little escalator, in case the regression all comes at once? Mayfield is +525 to throw at least two interceptions (bet365). He did that five times last year even en route to the Bucs winning the division, and he's thrown at least two picks in 22-of-105 career starts, a 21% hit rate that should imply a number under +400. Mayfield's teams are only 6-16 SU in those games with multiple interceptions. That makes sense, and since we're playing the Jets anyway, it's worth parlaying multiple interceptions with a Jets ML pick at +2275 (bet365) if your book allows it. I also like betting Mayfield to lead the league in interceptions again at +2500 (bet365). He just did that last year, and the season still has a long ways to go in a wonky market. The current leader in odds, Jake Browning, didn't even play Week 1 and may not start all season! Mayfield had 16 last year and also has seasons of 14 and 21, so he can close in a hurry. Buy the dip.

Kitchen Sink Week: This remains a great opportunity to buy low on a championship defense and spine. If Caley can find some answers offensively and Stroud can get going, this could easily be a top-five team in the AFC. But with the daunting schedule, it's pretty clear that the best path is the division — beating up on the Colts, Jaguars and Titans to accrue wins and take the easiest path to the playoffs: the AFC South. Verdict: Buy the dip on the Texans. Trust the defense to get it done with the Jaguars and Titans next and invest in Houston as a +270 division winner — it's a a far better price than +130 to make the playoffs when the division is the best path. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-0-2-teams-ranked-playoff-chances-chiefs-bears-texans-more

Remember how the Giants were a sneaky top-10-potential defense? Turns out not so much. New York ranks 30th in Defensive DVOA so far and dead last against the run. The Giants are so bad against the rush that even the Chiefs were able to run on them! This isn't new either. The Giants allowed almost 1900 rushing yards to RBs last season, fifth most in the NFL, with the median outcome for a lead RB at 87 yards, so over half the games! This season the Giants are allowing 5.2 yards per carry, and that's against Washington, Dallas, and Kansas City — not exactly a murderer's row of opposing running backs. Volume is key here. Since the start of last season, RBs with 14+ carries against the Giants are averaging 121 rushing yards. With Najee Harris out for the season, Hampton should see a huge workload under notoriously run-heavy OC Greg Roman. Hampton had 19 carries just last week even with Harris playing part of the game, and he had 23 carries the first two games even in a part-time role. Play Hampton to go over 62.5 rushing yards (BetRivers), considering he hit that already last week with 70 yards against a far better defense despite playing part-time. This is a great opportunity for a Hampton breakout game too. Six RBs hit 100 yards against the Giants last season, so let's play Hampton to do that at +475 (bet365). He's +1000 to make it to 120 rushing yards, right at that average outcome for RBs with 14+ carries against New York. If Hampton does have a huge rushing game, we'll definitely want that Offensive Rookie of the Year ticket too at +900 (Circa). I'm selling high on Emeka Egbuka with other Bucs WRs coming back and on Tyler Warren since a tight end has never won the award, and I'm not buying Dart with a rough upcoming schedule. This race feels open to some of the RBs slowly nudging themselves into a bigger role, and Hampton leads the pack. If he has a big game against the Giants on Sunday, Omarion Hampton could wake up Monday morning as a Rookie of the Year favorite.

Seattle is my favorite side of Week 5. I liked Seahawks -2.5 Sunday night when the line reopened. That disappeared quickly as this line his -3 and even -3.5 at most books, but I still like Seattle at the best number you can get. It sucks to lose the key number, but in this case the line move is because the Bucs have a barrage of injuries — and that only makes me like Seattle even more. Mike Evans is out, and Chris Godwin is still rounding back into form off his long injury. The right side of the offensive line remains out too, with LT Tristan Wirfs still ramping back up. The secondary enters the week banged up too, so that means cluster injuries at the three toughest positions. It looks increasingly likely that dynamic RB Bucky Irving is limited or out too. Even Baker Mayfield is playing hurt. Seattle, on the other hand, is playing on extended rest after a Thursday game, and I love this spot for the Seahawks. They have the better defense, the better offense so far, better coaching, and the far healthier team. The Seahawks defense leads the league in DVOA, top three against both the run and the pass. Mike Macdonald's unit should get after Mayfield with all those Bucs O-line injuries, and Tampa has struggled to run the ball this season and may be without Irving. Tampa's run defense has been terrific, but the Bucs are beatable against the pass with little pass rush and injuries in the secondary. And don't look now, but Seattle has the #2 passing offense by DVOA. Sam Darnold has been outstanding to start the season, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a breakout star. The Seahawks also have about as big a special teams advantage as you can have in this one, first in DVOA by a wide margin while the Bucs are arguably the league's worst special teams unit, losing to Philly with a blocked punt TD and being hurt repeatedly in this overlooked area. I really think folks are sleeping on Seattle right now, my No. 6 power rated team, and I think the Seahawks could even win by double digits. Six of Macdonald's 13 wins so far have been by double digits with Seattle, with an average margin of victory of 10.5 points. Baker Mayfield is 17-26-1 ATS against teams over .500 (32%). Give me Seattle -3, and I'll place a portion of the bet on Seahawks -9.5 at +215 too (FanDuel). I also love investing in Seahawks to make the playoffs (-115, ESPN Bet). This is the second-highest leverage game of the week per PFF, with Seattle 39% to make the playoffs with a loss here but 66% with a win. FTN already has Seattle at -200, so if you like the Seahawks in this game, you should grab a playoff ticket too.

The Bills are one of two 4-0 squads and it feels like that unbeaten record and the No. 1 spot in every power rankings is giving this team an overpriced bump. Buffalo is 4-0, but what have the Bills really proven? They played the Jets, Dolphins, and Saints the last three games — winners of one game combined in September, against each other. The only win against a real team was Week 1 against the now 1-3 Ravens, which looks far less impressive in hindsight, especially since Buffalo was getting dominated for most of that game. Josh Allen is 7-6 against the Patriots, by far his toughest division opponent and most losses against any team, and four straight Bills-Patriots games have finished within one score. These Patriots might be better than you think. The offense is ahead of expectations, above average by DVOA and top quartile of the league passing, and that's almost entirely because of the development of Drake Maye. He looks like a star in the making and this could be a Sunday night coming out party, especially as Stefon Diggs continues to ramp up in his injury return and looks to show out against his old team. New England's offense is ahead of schedule. This was supposed to be a defense-forward team, and the run defense has ranked top 10 by DVOA but the pass defense is bottom five. But now star young CB Christian Gonzalez is back, and one player doesn't fix everything, but his presence bumps Carlton Davis back to CB2 and gives this secondary an entirely different look. It's not like the Bills defense has been that good. They're below average in many metrics, and the Pats will also have a pretty big special teams advantage with the way they've been returning kicks this season. A handful of trends — some 2-2 ones, some division underdogs — support the Patriots here, but I don't necessarily love the way New England matches up with Buffalo's pass defense shell. Can the Pats run the ball well enough to shorten the game and keep it close? Maybe, but if they're going to really contend here, it has to be a bet on Maye — and if I'm betting on Maye, I'm going all-in. Mike Vrabel has covered 64% of his games as an underdog of at least three points, but here's the crazy part: he has a winning record in those games at 21-20 SU, with a 59% ROI on the moneyline. When he's at least a six-point dog, he's still coaching .500 ball at 7-7 somehow, with a remarkable 102% ROI on the moneyline. Heavy favorites are dominating this weekend, but that might be buying us some value. Let's take a shot on the New England moneyline at +360 (BetMGM) and hope for a Sunday night shocker. I'm also investing in a +172 ticket for the Patriots to miss the playoffs (FanDuel). Only nine AFC teams are 2-2 or better right now like New England, and one of those is the fake Bengals. That might mean only eight teams for seven spots in the AFC, maybe the winner of the Ravens-Texans game, and that's only if the 3-1 Steelers, Colts, and Jaguars all stay in the picture too. Normally, we'd wait and invest in the Patriots after such a big underdog spot, but if New England wins this game, we're never seeing +172 again. This is the highest leverage game on the schedule this week, but the leverage is all upset for us as Patriots betters. New England drops from 36 to 31% to make the playoffs with a loss per PFF — hardly any movement — but jumps all the way to 60% with a win. If the Pats do get to 3-2, check out the schedule after Buffalo: Saints, Titans, Browns, Falcons, Bucs, Jets, Bengals, and Giants into the bye. That's an incredibly winning schedule, and if New England starts with a W in Buffalo, there may be no turning back.

CPOY goes to an injury return, typically a QB (12 of the last 16), on a 9+ win playoff team (13 of the last 15). I don’t love the favs. Only one RB has won ever and CMC isn’t running well. Only 1 defender last 16 is a strike against Hutch. Jones coming back from sucking not injury. Dak big stats but unlikely playoff contender + CD hurt. Lawrence hasn’t been great but everything else about Jax has and looks far more likely to win 9 and make playoffs now than before the season, so why has he dropped from +550 preseason then to +2500 now? Makes no sense for a narrative award when we give QBs credit for wins. Playing now before wk5 MNF which is all upside if he wins a showcase home game against Mahomes and gets to 4-1, but still very much in the mix with a loss and no standout CPOY candidate.

Jacksonville is coming off a huge win Monday night, one of its biggest in recent franchise history. That's great for the Jaguars but also makes this an obvious letdown spot after such an emotional comeback win, especially on short rest. Jacksonville was lucky to get that win, needing a late stumbling, bumbling touchdown even after a 99-yard pick-6 that was effectively a 14-point swing for the Jags. Jacksonville's defense made the big play but was mostly miserable, allowing the Chiefs offense to hit 64% Success Rate, a top 100 percentile outcome, and move the ball at will. Now it faces a Seattle offense that nearly matched that last week in an incredible performance against the Bucs, undone by a couple mistakes. Jacksonville has the better record, but Seattle is the better team and should be favored here, and the Seahawks might be by kickoff, as this line floats around a pick'em. Seattle ranks second in DVOA on the season. It's not super surprising to see the Seahawks 7th on defense or first in special teams, but the offense has been shocking. Sam Darnold has been a revelation for the league's No. 1 passing offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out as a true star WR1 and sleeper OPOY contender. The Jaguars traded this week for Browns CB Greg Newsome. Could he immediately get the JSN assignment? Yikes. Neither of these defenses really covered themselves in glory last week. Seattle's pass defense got shredded, dropping from 2nd to 15th in DVOA, but faced a much better passing attack and a bunch of secondary injuries. A healthier unit should be able to hold up better against what's really been the most disappointing part of the Jaguars thus far, Trevor Lawrence and the unreliable passing game. Jacksonville's defense also saw its metrics fall way off last week, from top three to around league average, and from top to bottom 10 against the run. The Jaguars do get Travon Walker back this week but the defense has been over reliant on huge turnover swings, getting beaten on a down-to-down basis. I like Jacksonville — I just like Seattle better. In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs of a touchdown or less against teams with an elite ATS record of 80-to-99% are an awesome 41-16-1 ATS, covering 72% of the time by about five points a game. Seattle is also a Luck Rankings side. Grab Seahawks +1.5 or the best number available, and switch to the moneyline if you must. I prefer the +1.5 since both coaches are aggressive and it wouldn't be surprising to see a two-point conversion decide this one. If you do like Seattle here, this is also a great opportunity to invest in Seahawks futures. Seattle is top five in my power ratings. The Seahawks have a top-five defense when healthy, a top-five coaching staff, and the league's best special teams. If the offense continues to play as a top-10 unit too, Seattle could be a great pick to win the NFC West at +500 (DraftKings). It's a great opportunity to fade the injury-riddled 4-1 49ers, underdogs this week in Tampa Bay. This looks like a three-horse race with the Rams in the mix too, and FTN projects all three teams between 10.3 and 10.7 wins and between 26 and 38% to win the division. Seattle is lowest of the three but not by much, and that 26% opportunity implies under +300 and will only get better with a win in Jacksonville.

For a second straight week, I strongly considered the Cowboys as a short road favorite. This Dallas offense looks legit, and Dak Prescott is typically great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams. The Cowboys should score. But they might allow plenty of points to the Panthers too, as bad as their defense is playing, and with a total at 49.5, this could end up in the running for highest-scoring game of the week. Could this finally be the Tet McMillan breakout game? Carolina's star rookie WR has looked the part on the field but yet to put up a huge line, but this matchup sets up well for some big time production. The Cowboys rank bottom three in the NFL both against the pass and overall by Defensive DVOA. This pass defense just has no shot right now, especially against opposing WR1s. Malik Nabers had nine catches for 167 yards and two scores against Dallas. Rome Odunze had 62 yards and a TD. Romeo Doubs found the end zone three times, and Garrett Wilson saw 71 yards and a score himself. All four of those WRs scored a touchdown, with Nabers scoring twice and Doubs three times. Dallas allowed a TD to 8-of-17 opposing WR1s last season too, almost half of them. McMillan's receptions and yardage lines have been bet up this week past value, so I'm investing in a touchdown or two. He's a big target and should be Bryce Young's look in the red zone, and we could see a whole bunch of touchdowns in a potential shootout. I'll back McMillan for an Anytime Touchdown at +150 (Caesars) and put a bit on two TDs at +1200 too (FanDuel) with plenty of scores to go around. This might also be the spot to buy a Tet McMillan ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1300 (ESPN Bet). Emeka Egbuka is the clear favorite right now but should slow down once Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, and the field looks pretty wide open after Egbuka with Ashton Jeanty second in name only. A big game Sunday from McMillan should finally get him the attention he deserves.

🏈 Introducing the Pick Six! 🏈 I’ll start each week at @ActionNetworkHQ by picking 6 NFL sides that *should* win in the upcoming slate to build a moneyline parlay… +630 this week! Plus my Extra Point, a parting thought DROY long shot at 60-1. https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/nfl-moneyline-picks-week-7-parlay-predictions

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