Grizzlies-76ers Betting Guide: Fade the Public’s Backing of Philly?

Grizzlies-76ers Betting Guide: Fade the Public’s Backing of Philly? article feature image

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joel Embiid

Betting odds: Memphis Grizzlies at Philadelphia 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -7.5
  • Over/Under: 213
  • Time: 6 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of noon ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NBA odds and track your bets

The surprising 13-8 Grizzlies, fresh off a double-overtime win over the Nets on Friday, travel to Philadelphia to take on the 16-8 76ers, who are surging since the Jimmy Butler trade.

Is there any value in the current line? Our analysts dive in.

Mears: Is There Any Value in the Current Line?

This line opened at 76ers -5.5 but has since been bet way up to -7.5. There’s certainly some sharp money on Philly, as the 76ers are getting 48% of the bets but a whopping 87% of the money as of writing (see live data here).

Perhaps that’s partially due due to the status of Grizzlies center Marc Gasol, who is questionable to suit up with a sore right knee. He was questionable before Friday’s game as well but ended up playing 42 minutes.

But our power ratings, even with Gasol playing, peg this around 76ers -7.5 to -8.

Philly has been excellent since acquiring Butler: The starting lineup of Ben Simmons-J.J. Redick-Butler-Wilson Chandler-Joel Embiid has posted a +16.1 Net Rating in 199 minutes together, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions and allowing just 103.0 points/100.

All that said, the Grizzlies are an interesting matchup for the 76ers.

Philly really thrives pushing the pace: The 76ers rank fourth in points added in transition, sixth in points added off steals and fifth in points added pushing off live rebounds. They’re about league-average operating in the half court, for reference.

And the Grizzlies love to slow things down: They rank first in percentage of possessions in the half court (84.1% of plays). And they sit fourth in offensive turnover rate, which means the 76ers are unlikely to really take advantage by running all day.

This is all a round-about way of saying I don’t think there’s a ton of value in the current spread. It opened too low, and you could argue there’s some value in Philly still because of Gasol’s status plus the starters had to play so much on Friday, but that’s somewhat mitigated by how the Grizz play.

Sorry to be boring, but I’m steering clear of this one today. Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

The Grizzlies are running the slowest-paced offense at 96.28 possessions per game, but they’re only 11-10 to the under. The Grizzlies have gone over the total in their most recent two games, and in four of their past five.

When the Grizzlies have gone over the total in the two consecutive games under head coach J.B. Bickerstaff, the edge really depends where their next game is played:

  • When at home: 15-8 (65.2%) to under; have gone under by an average of 4.3 points, making Bickerstaff the second-most profitable coach to the under in this spot since 2015
  • When on road: 8-15 (34.8%) to under; have gone over by an average of 2.2 points, making Bickerstaff the third-least profitable coach to the under in this spot since 2015

Even though the Grizzlies are last in pace, they’re 13-8 straight-up and against the spread. Teams with at least a 60% win rate SU and ATS with a pace of 97 or less that are facing a team with a pace of 100 or more possessions — the Sixers average 103.13 — are 64-83-2 (43.5%) ATS, losing bettors 21.1 units.

Those teams are 25-37-1 (40.3%) ATS over the past four seasons overall.Evan Abrams

The Sixers have won eight of their past 10 games, but bettors shouldn’t expect Philly’s recent success to translate to the ticket window, especially since the team has a losing ATS record this season.

Since 2005, teams that have an 80% or better win percentage in their past 10 games and have a losing ATS record for the season have gone 331-404-16 (45%) ATS in their next game. John Ewing

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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