Bucks-Raptors Betting Preview: Will Milwaukee’s Defense Hold Up?

Betting odds: Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors

• Spread: Raptors -5
• Over/Under: 231.5
• Time: 6 p.m. ET
• TV: NBA TV

Giannis vs. Kawhi. What more do you need on a Sunday evening than that? These two teams met earlier this year, but neither star played. With both of them back, which team has the edge? Our analysts discuss.

Mears: The Bucks' One Big Weakness

In the first meeting this year between these two teams, the Bucks blew out the Raptors at home, 124-109. Almost nothing from that game is useful, however, as both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard were out. They're both expected to play tonight.

By point differential, the Bucks (+9.1) and Raptors (+7.8) are the two best teams in the NBA this year. They both boast top-10 offenses and defenses, and they're right there with Golden State as the best shooting teams.

The question in this matchup — and any matchup of the Bucks vs. the best teams in the league — is whether their schemes will hold up. It was just one game, but they really struggled last game against the Warriors, scoring just 95 points and posting an effective field goal rate of 42.9%.

Overall, that was probably just a poor shooting game. Their looks were fine — 45% of their shots came at the rim (87th percentile) and 38% came from the 3-point line (80th). They just didn't hit anything, especially from 3, where they went just 17.9% — the second percentile of games this year.

On the year, the Bucks rank second in both shots at the rim and from the 3-point line; they're first in field goal percentage at the rim and average from the 3-point line. The offense I believe will be fine, even against the league's best squads.

But the defense will be a unit to monitor. The Bucks this year have really sold out to eliminating shots in the paint, and it's worked. Only 28.9% of opponent shots have come at the rim, which is by far the best mark in the league. It comes with a cost, however, as they're also first in the league in 30-pointers allowed.

The Raptors actually don't get to the rim a whole lot this year — they rank 22nd in frequency — but they're seventh in 3-point rate and fourth specifically from the corners. They're just 23rd in 3-point field goal percentage, but they definitely have guys who can get hot.

Danny Green is hitting 42.5% of his 3s, and Kawhi is at 39.4%. Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are having down shooting seasons from distance, but they should see some shooting regression moving forward. Lowry has been at around 40% each of the last three years but is at 33.5% this season. Ibaka is in the same boat, having excellent marks historically but sitting at just 27.9% this year.

These teams are pretty similar: The supporting casts are good, and they're led by All-World talents at the wing spots in Kawhi and Giannis. Those guys can take over any game, but over the season series — and a playoff one if we're lucky enough to get it — it might come down to role players shooting and overall scheme.

And that's the concern for the Bucks. The Raptors have almost no definable weaknesses to consistently attack. The Bucks do, and facing a team with four starting players who are above-average 3-point shooters could be too much to handle given their defensive scheme.

They could certainly win or cover in this one, but over the rest of the season — and particularly against the best shooting teams — I'll be watching their defense and whether it eventually dooms them. — Bryan Mears

Betting Trends to Know

The Raptors and Bucks enter this Eastern Conference showdown as the Nos. 1 and 3 seeds currently. Both teams are coming off losses during which they each shot below 40% from the field.

Since 2005, when two teams meet, both coming off shooting performances below 40% from the field, the over is 149-125-7 (54.4%), going over the total by 3.2 PPG and profiting bettors 17.7 units.

That said, this will be just the third time since 2005 in this spot that both teams are averaging 110 PPG. Both of the other instances have come within the last year, and both went under the total:

• October 2018 ATL at PHI (230.5) — 113-92 final (Under)
• May 2018 GSW at HOU (219.5) — 98-94 final (Under)

As road underdogs, the Bucks have played very well under Mike Budenholzer. Milwaukee is 2-1 SU and ATS in the spot, and over the last three seasons with the Bucks and Hawks, Budenholzer is 37-27-3 ATS (57.8%) as a road underdog, the fourth-most profitable coach in the NBA.

Coach Bud is fighting one of the oddest trends in the league, however. In 2018, teams that play the Warriors in their previous game are 6-20 ATS (23.1%), the least profitable previous opponent by 4.0 full units this year. Teams are being outscored by 7.2 PPG in this spot, including 1-11 ATS when they play on the road in their next game, failing to cover by 9.8 PPG. — Evan Abrams

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.