The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Thursday, November 5.
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NBA Best Bets for Thursday, November 5
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Magic vs. Suns
Magic Team Total Over 111.5
Looking at the spread, the Suns are favored by 1.5 points on the second night of a back-to-back, and while I have this game projected very closely at +1.25, there just isn't enough of a mathematical edge for me to back Orlando on the standard point spread.
Instead, I think the team total is the smartest way to attack this matchup.
The Suns are in a classic revenge spot at home after getting embarrassed by the Trail Blazers last night, losing by 13 points and looking completely out of sorts.
While everyone keeps anticipating positive regression for this Phoenix defense, it simply isn't happening yet. The Suns currently hold the worst defensive rating in the NBA at a staggering 124.0.
You do not magically correct deeply rooted defensive scheme issues on zero days of rest.
On the other side of the floor, you have a Magic team dealing with their own early-season desperation. They have dropped two in a row to fall to 2-5, but they have shown a fascinating road split that we can capitalize on.
Despite their overall shooting struggles at home, the Magic currently rank first in the league in three-point shooting on the road, hitting a blistering 41 percent from beyond the arc away from the Kia Center.
For whatever reason, the Magic have been highly productive in opposing environments, boasting a 2-1 road record so far this year.
I could easily see a scenario where this game is played in the mud and Phoenix eventually figures out a way to get stops late to secure a tight win, which is exactly why I want to avoid the spread.
Attack the team total market instead. Take the better-rested Magic team that is shooting the lights out on the road to exploit the worst defense in the league.
Pick: Magic Team Total Over 111.5 (-110)
Tristan da Silva Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
Tristan da Silva is launching an ungodly amount of shots from beyond the arc right now.
Through his first seven games this season, he has already attempted 52 three-pointers—averaging roughly 7.5 attempts per game—despite not even playing a full 30 minutes a night. He is basically putting up a three-point attempt every four minutes he is on the floor.
Da Silva has safely cleared this 2.5 line four different times this year, posting shooting lines of 4-for-10, 5-for-9, 4-for-5, and 5-for-8.
In fact, there have only been two instances all season where he took fewer than seven threes in a game — and seven attempts is exactly the sweet spot you want when backing a prop like this.
You never want to rely on a player perfectly shooting 3-for-4; you want the raw volume to provide a safe floor. Tonight, da Silva gets a phenomenal matchup against a Suns defense that is bleeding high-quality looks from the perimeter.
Until very recently, the Suns had the worst three-point defense in the NBA, allowing opponents to shoot 43 percent from deep. While that number has slightly ticked down to 40 percent, they are still getting carved up by outside shooters.
Da Silva is currently hitting 44 percent of his threes overall, and an absurd 65 percent on the road. We also know his minutes are secure regardless of the surrounding rotation. When Anthony Black missed a game, da Silva played 32 minutes; when Black returned, da Silva played 35 minutes.
His role is static, and this offense desperately needs his floor spacing. I fully expect da Silva to get somewhere between 7 and 10 attempts tonight, which should be more than enough volume to cash the over.
Pick: Tristan da Silva Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made (-104)
Anthony Black Over 18.5 Points & Assists
By Joe Dellera
With Paolo Banchero and Jalen Suggs both out of the lineup, Anthony Black is stepping into an expanded opportunity and seeing his minutes lock in right around the low 30s.
Over his last four games in this expanded role, Black is averaging 16.5 points and 4.8 assists per contest — and tonight presents an exploitable matchup for him to maintain that production, as Phoenix has consistently struggled to contain opposing lead guards.
The Suns surrender above-the-break 3-pointers and foul at a very high rate. These are two specific areas where Black thrives; he can confidently knock down the pull-up jumper, and he is tremendous at generating contact to get to the line.
Black is also functioning as a true offensive hub right now, distributing roughly 60 passes in each of his last two outings. Because he constantly has the ball in his hands, the assist floor should be safe right now, along with his scoring upside.
Pick: Anthony Black Over 18.5 Points & Assists (-125)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Magic vs Suns betting preview!
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Heat vs. Warriors
Klay Thompson Over 13.5 Points
I am buying up Klay Thompson's points prop to over 13.5 at even-money tonight. The standard line is currently sitting at 12.5, but it is juiced around -125 depending on the book.
I am not interested in laying that kind of juice; I either want a genuinely good performance from Klay or I am completely out of the business, so bumping it up a single point for an even-money payout is the most logical way to attack the board.
Klay is absolutely balling right now, looking like vintage Klay Thompson. Over his last three games, he has scored 30, 19, and 25 points while knocking down a staggering 19 total three-pointers on elite volume.
Typically, asking a 36-year-old veteran to produce on the second night of a grueling back-to-back—especially after playing high-leverage minutes in a late overtime game against the Clippers—is a classic situational fade spot.
However, this is not a normal situational spot. He is playing back in Golden State against the Warriors, the franchise where his jersey will one day hang in the rafters.
This is a massive revenge game with incredibly familiar sight-lines, and there is absolutely zero chance he sits this one out.
The Heat also desperately need his offensive production right now because guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Andrew Wiggins have been flat-out terrible.
Klay is going to have to carry a significant portion of the offensive burden. Historically, he has played very well in these return spots; during his stint with Dallas, he dropped 22 points and 29 points in his first two games back against Golden State, averaging over 17 points per game against them on the road.
Even if his three-point shot isn't falling tonight, he is actively finding other ways to score, mixing in pump fakes and mid-range jumpers. I'll back Klay to show out in his old building tonight.
Pick: Klay Thompson Over 13.5 Points (+100)
Under 235.5
I am leaning toward the Under 235.5 in tonight's matchup between the Heat and the Warriors. This total actually opened up around 238.5 last night immediately following Miami's game, but it was quickly steamed down to 235.5 overnight, and I completely agree with that downward market movement.
I watched the Heat grind out that wild, exhausting overtime victory against the Clippers that didn't wrap up until nearly 1:30 a.m. ET. My immediate takeaway was that the Heat simply are not going to have the legs to score at a high clip tonight.
Despite their concerted effort to recklessly push the pace this season—currently ranking second in the league in overall pace—the Heat's actual offensive production remains incredibly middling, sitting at just 16th in offensive efficiency.
That tells you that despite maximizing their raw possessions, the Heat are still one of the least effective offenses in the NBA on a per-possession basis.
On the other side of the floor, the Warriors are operating at a much more methodical speed, ranking 24th in pace.
While Golden State's defense currently sits at 23rd in the league, it has noticeably improved during their current five-game winning streak. We have seen them successfully drag opponents into the mud and win with defensive-minded showings, like their recent 116-113 grinder against the Suns.
Unless Miami's defense is so completely decimated by fatigue on the second night of a back-to-back that they just hemorrhage easy points in transition, I just don't see how we get to 236 total points here.
Pick: Under 235.5 (-115)
If you want more picks for this game, read our full Heat vs Warriors betting preview!
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