NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Grizzlies vs. Nuggets, More (Monday, April 26)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ja Morant #12 of the Memphis Grizzlies.
- It's another busy Monday night across the league with 11 games on tonight's schedule.
- Our NBA analysts give out their top bets for the evening's action, including a pivotal game in the West.
Monday night’s slate NBA slate is stacked with 11 games and has plenty of value to offer, especially on the national TV front. The Phoenix Suns will face the red-hot New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, while the Dallas Mavericks head West to face the Sacramento Kings.
For tonight, our NBA analysts are focused on three games and are betting a second quarter, full-game spread and moneyline in those matchups.
Take a look their in-depth analysis and picks below.
NBA Odds & Picks
San Antonio Spurs vs. Washington Wizards
Matt Moore: The San Antonio Spurs is the league’s best team against the spread in the second quarter at 36-23 (15.66%ROI), and 7-3 in their last 10 gams.
The Wizards are 4-6 in second quarters in their past 10 and are hobbled — Rui Hachimura is active but dealing with a knee injury and Deni Avdija is expected to miss the rest of the season with an ankle fracture. That has and will continue to have a significant impact on their rotations.
With Patty Mills back in the rotation for the Spurs and Rudy Gay (questionable) potentially playing as well, I like the Spurs to keep this trend rolling with better overall depth. I’ll play the Spurs at -0.5 in the second quarter up to -1.
Phoenix Suns vs. New York Knicks
Raheem Palmer: The Suns finally close out their five game East Coast road trip tonight against the New York Knicks. If you’ve been following my articles this past week, you’ll know I’ve faded them quite often on this trip, against the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. They faced a tough scheduling spot against the Celtics and the Nets were a tough matchup with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
The Suns are also on a back-to-back tonight, but that is a spot they’ve consistently thrived in, going 10-4 with a Net Rating of +7.9.
Chris Paul and Devin Booker lead the Suns’ offense, which ranks seventh in Offensive Rating (116.5 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes) this season and I think they can still score well enough against a tough Knicks defense.
The Knicks rank 21st in Offensive Rating, scoring just 110.4 points per 100 possessions this season. However, over the past two weeks the Knicks are first in Offensive Rating (122.2) and have the sixth-best Defensive Rating over that span. It’s not a surprise the Knicks are on a nine-game winning streak.
Still, I can’t help but think that this is unsustainable. They’ve been red hot from 3-point range during the streak shooting over 50% behind the arc in four of those games. They’ve also shot 40% or better on 3s in nine of their past 12 games.
Against a Suns defense that is top five in opponent field goal percentage from 3-point range (35.4%), I don’t see this continuing. Seven of the Knicks wins came against the Raptors (2x), Hawks, Hornets, Pelicans, Mavericks, Pelicans and these teams rank 14th, 18th, 17th, 27th and 21st in Defensive Rating.
The Suns are holding opposing teams to 110.4 points per 100 possessions in their non garbage time minutes. This is a clear step up in class for the Knicks, who are a great story but aren’t quite a championship contender.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets
Brandon Anderson: The Memphis Grizzlies are coming.
At 31-28, the Grizz have won nine of their past 14 games and are coming on strong down the stretch. Memphis isn’t going to catch Denver in the standings of this shortened season, and the Grizzlies are still grinding for every win just trying to get themselves out of the play-in position.
Heck, right now, they’re just trying to make sure they stay in at least the play-in tourney.
But Memphis might be peaking at the right time. Jaren Jackson Jr. is finally back from injury and has made an immediate impact. His shooting has opened up the offense, giving teammates more room to drive to the rim.
The Grizzlies remain very stout on defense too — top-10 in overall Defensive Efficiency on the season per Basketball Reference — and are finally getting healthy with everything to play for down the stretch. Outside of the top true contenders, you can make a fair argument that Memphis is about as good as any other team right now.
The unknown is where the Nuggets fit in the West currently. Denver has found a way to keep on winning without Jamal Murray, but how long can this last?
Michael Porter Jr. has been shooting the lights out, and Nikola Jokic continues to put up MVP numbers, but Facundo Campazzo is no match for Morant, and Jokic will have a tough matchup in Jonas Valanciunas, an opponent who knows him well. Denver has had some trouble scoring consistently without Murray, and against this tough Grizzlies defense, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this one very tight down the stretch.
Memphis is on the second night of a back-to-back but flying high after a weekend sweep of the Portland Trail Blazers; the Grizzlies are a deep team with more rested bodies the thin Nuggets roster. I like Memphis a lot right now, and I think they might be just as good as the Murray-less Nuggets.
I’d put this game much closer to even, and I’m willing to go all in and took a shot at the outright win at +164, implying under a 38% chance of victory. Take the points if you prefer to be safer, but I think Memphis can get a win that’s far more important to the Grizzlies than it is to the Nuggets.