NBA Betting Odds & Picks for Saturday: Our Best Bets for Jazz vs. Wizards & Warriors vs. 76ers (December 11)
Getty Images. Pictured: Stephen Curry (left) and Seth Curry.
- Three of our NBA betting analysts have pinpointed three picks for bettors on Saturday night.
- They start in D.C., where the Jazz face the Wizards, before moving to Philadelphia for Warriors vs. 76ers.
- Check out their picks and breakdowns below.
With a seven-game NBA slate on Saturday night, our team of NBA betting analysts have targeted just two games for their three best bets.
Two of our writers are aligned on the spread when the Jazz visit Washington, D.C., to take on the Wizards. Then, we’re going to get creative for a high-profile matchup between the 76ers and Warriors, which could see an all-time record go down.
NBA Odds & Picks
Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards
Brandon Anderson: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
I’ve been picking the Jazz a lot in these daily best bets this season, and I’m going to keep on doing it until the books adjust to the regular season juggernaut Utah is.
Utah is 18-7, second in Net Rating at Basketball Reference, ahead of the Suns, like it’s been pretty much all season. The Jazz are actually closer to the Warriors at the top of the rankings than they are to Phoenix, and by a decent margin. Utah leads the league in Offensive Rating and is improving there, while its defense is back to top-five level. The Jazz are firing on every cylinder.
Utah has won 10 of its last 12, and the two losses came by a single point with 70% of the wins by 16 or more points. The Jazz are killing teams, and they’ve been doing it all calendar year.
This is the trend we keep playing: Utah is 28-11 ATS in 2021 as a favorite between 5-9.5 points. That’s a 72% hit rate for the calendar year and the trend has gone 7-4 against the spread (ATS) in the new season, so we’ll keep playing it.
The Wizards, meanwhile, have regressed back to around what most people expected coming into this season — an average team. After a hot 10-3 start under new coach Wes Unseld Jr. that saw Washington surprised teams early with its depth and defense, opponents have started to take the Wiz seriously and the results haven’t gone as well. The Wizards are just 5-8 since that torrid start.
Washington’s defense has fallen to league average overall and below average of late, and the offense ranks bottom 10 in Offensive Rating at Basketball Reference. The Wizards haven’t won by double digits anytime in this 13-game stretch, but they’ve lost by double digits six times. They’re still a fine team and should be in the Eastern Conference playoff mix, but this is the sort of team the Jazz typically take care of with ease.
This line is simply too low. The Jazz are the far better team, and 17 of their 18 wins have come by at least this margin.
Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards
Austin Wang: With the Warriors and the Suns garnering so much attention for their strong starts, the Jazz have been flying under the radar. However, the Jazz have caught fire lately and have won 10 of their last 12 games, including five straight on the road.
Utah ranks first in Offensive Rating (117.2) by a huge margin (5.0 points per 100 possessions more than the second-ranked Hornets), per NBA Advanced Stats. Donovan Mitchell has been incredible, averaging 31.4 points per game and 55.2% shooting from the field in his previous five games. The Jazz have now soared to No. 1 in my Power Ratings.
The Wizards, on the other hand, are trending in the opposite direction. After their strong start to the season, they’ve regressed as of late and are only 3-9-1 ATS in their previous 13 games dating back to Nov. 17. Washington began the season with one of the league’s best defenses, but it has fallen off a cliff over the last two weeks, dragging their overall Defensive Rating to 15th in the league. Spencer Dinwiddie has missed sporadic games and has really been struggling with his shot as of late.
The Wizards are off an overtime win against the Pistons. Home underdogs off an overtime win are 16-40-1 ATS (28.6%) since the 2016-17 season, per the Sports Data Query Language at Gimme the Dog. This is active as a fade against the Wizards. Teams in this situation are fatigued off a grueling win in OT and tend to underperform in the following game.
In addition, the Wizards are in a bizarre scheduling spot. They just completed a three-game road trip and are back for one game at home before embarking on another six-game road trip. I think this could be a letdown spot for Washington as it may be focused on enjoying this brief period at home before getting on the road again.
Last season, the Wizards won both matchups against the Jazz outright as double-digit underdogs. This is surprising because Utah didn’t lose much last season, period. There could be a revenge angle here as the Jazz look to avenge their two embarrassing losses last season.
Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Raheem Palmer: Stephen Curry is just 10 3-pointers away from becoming the NBA’s all time leader in three point field goals, a record currently held by Ray Allen.
This season, Curry is averaging 13.3 3-point attempts per game and making 5.5, but we’ll likely see him push for the record with Allen’s mark on the horizon.
The 76ers present an interesting matchup with Joel Embiid playing drop coverage, giving Curry plenty of openings to hit open shots from the perimeter. In last season’s game against the 76ers, Curry went 10-of-17 from behind the arc, scoring 49 points on the way to a 107-96 victory. It’s hard not to imagine a similar scenario tonight against a 76ers defense that’s allowing opponents to shoot 35.9% from behind the arc — 22nd in the NBA.
Golden State Warriors vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Brandon Anderson: You didn’t really think I was sitting out the Curry 3-pointer love fest on Saturday night did you?
But wait! You did double check that first name, right? That’s not a typo. Hear me out.
While everyone is going gaga over Steph’s career 3-point chase, myself included, it’s impossible not to notice his brother suiting up on the other side. You know that means endless shots of the entire Curry family all night in a game broadcast on ABC for all the world to see.
And you have to believe Curry — both Currys — are gonna get their shots up.
I’ve already got a position on Steph breaking the record tonight, though I didn’t like what I saw last game. Steph and the Warriors were pressing too hard, forcing it to their MVP and playing very un-Warriors basketball. Steph got a lot of shots up but they weren’t in his usual rhythm or flow.
Regardless, my money is more interested in what the other Curry does tonight.
Come on, with the entire world watching Steph gun for the record, you don’t think baby bro is gonna get a few extra shots up? I sure do. Steph’s career 43.2% 3-point shooting percentage is pretty good, but it’s only third best on the court tonight. Seth’s 44.1% is higher and trails only Steve Kerr’s 45.4% on the NBA all-time record board.
Seth averages around six 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, even higher in games against Steph over his career. Seth should play a lot and get at least five or six shots up, maybe eight or 10 if we’re lucky and the competitive edge pulls a few YOLO shots out. I’m banking on the latter, with at least one stretch heading to a commercial where the Currys have fired back and forth like four times in two minutes and the crowd and internet are melting down.
Steph’s betting numbers tonight are too outlandish for my taste, but I’ll bet on Seth to hold his ground. We’re getting plus odds for Seth to hit a trio of 3s tonight. If he gets six attempts up, there’s a 53% chance a shooter of Seth’s caliber makes three of them, so that bet is clearly in our favor.
But what if he gets those eight or 10 shots up in a Curry 3-point shootout? With even eight attempts, Seth is almost 50/50 to hit four and nearly 1-in-4 to make at least five.
But we’re getting +370 to hit four 3s, an implied 21% and +1040 to hit five, implying under 9% chance. In a night all about the Currys, I think that is badly mispriced.
Seth has 30 games the last two seasons with at least a trio of 3s, 14 with at least four, and five with five or more. I’m betting on Seth’s pristine shooting percentage and a few extra attempts given the narrative, and the math will take us home from there.
Typical escalator approach here. Full unit on the 2.5, half unit on the 3.5, and a quarter on the 4.5.