Tuesday’s NBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Wizards vs. Knicks, 76ers vs. Warriors (March 23)
Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Simmons #25, Danny Green #14 and Tobias Harris #12 of the Philadelphia 76ers.
- Tuesday's NBA slate includes two nationally televised games on TNT.
- Our experts are back with a trio of picks, including a prop, a total and a spread.
- Continue reading for our best bets for Tuesday's NBA action.
The NBA is back in the spotlight with six games scheduled for Tuesday night, including two on national TV: Los Angeles Lakers vs. New Orleans (7:30 p.m. ET) and Philadelphia 76ers vs. Warriors (10 p.m. ET).
While the latter matchup is one of two that our NBA analysts are eyeing, there is one more matchup on their radar. You can check out the three bets they are making on tonight's slate below, including in-depth analysis for each game.
NBA Odds & Picks
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Roberto Arguello: While I lean towards the Knicks to win and cover tonight against the Wizards, I don’t love the value on them as 2.5-point favorites with so much uncertainty regarding the statuses of their three main ball-handlers. However, I believe that is leading to some value on the under.
With Derrick Rose doubtful and Elfrid Payton questionable, the Knicks will likely run their offense through Randle and Barrett more than normal. Randle is more than capable as a distributor as his assist percentage of 26.6% ranks in the 96th percentile among bigs this season. He and Barrett rank in the 93rd and 84th percentiles respectively in mid-range shot frequency among their position groups and the Wizards’ defense will likely give them plenty of opportunities to take mid-range shots.
While Randle and Barrett take relatively more midrange shots than their peers, they don’t convert them at very efficient rates as Randle is shooting 45% on such shots while Barrett is shooting 36%.
The Wizards’ offense takes the second-most midrange shots with Beal and Westbrook each ranking in at least the 88th percentile of mid-range shot frequency. However, they won’t have as much room to operate as normal in the midrange against the Knicks’ defense that limits opponents to take the third-fewest midrange attempts (25.1% of shots) in the league, especially with their best floor spacer, Davis Bertans, out.
The under has consistently been a profitable bet involving games where the Wizards are road underdogs — the under is 11-6 (64.7%) in that spot this season, according to Bet Labs.
The Knicks have also struggled to score 100 points in their past three games without consistent point guard play and are the third-most profitable team (26-16-1, 61.9%) when betting the under this season. With both defenses seemingly having an answer for what the opposing offense wants to do, I love the value on the under. I bet this as 226, but would bet it down to 221.
Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks
Brandon Anderson: The Knicks continue to be shorthanded, and Tom Thibodeau has turned to Reggie Bullock for heavy minutes.
With few options available at guard and on the wing, Bullock has been playing 38 minutes per game over their past five games, and Thibs is no stranger to playing his guys huge minutes. Minutes equal opportunity and production, and our props tool is all over Bullock tonight, recommending just about any Bullock over available.
Over the five-game stretch, Bullock is averaging 14.2 points, four rebounds, 1.6 assists, and four made 3-pointers per game at a 48% rate, so that never hurts the cause. The Knicks just need bodies out there who can play competent NBA minutes and take some turns on the ball, and Bullock is one of their few comfortable options.
Our projections for Bullock — 35.5 minutes, 12.6 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.1 assists — are pretty close to his production during this recent stretch, and those numbers would put Bullock over on all three stats. That means we have to pick which prop is best, and as I sort between the options, the one thing I keep coming back to is his scoring.
He's scored at least 12 points in four of these five games and is always going to get those3s up. If he goes cold and can't score, he might not keep playing big minutes anyway.
I think Bullock should get to 14 or more points again, and that makes any prop involving points pretty juice, be it PR, PA, or PRA. In the end, the best juice here is just to play the higher points line available at BetMGM at +105 giving us our best payout odds. Bullock has gone over 11.5 points in four of his past five games and should have a good chance to do so again with more big minutes tonight.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Golden State Warriors
Kenny Ducey: Normally, I’d hate this spot. The 76ers have just an 8-10-2 record against the spread away from home, while the Warriors have been a solid 12-8 ATS in the Bay Area, but with the way both teams are going, I’d actually make the Sixers a heavier road favorite.
The 76ers are without Joel Embiid, but they’ve been thriving in the five games that they’ve played without him, winning four of the past five, aside from a narrow four-point defeat at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks.
Philly managed to post a league-leading 98.8 Defensive Rating over that span, which makes up for having its 20th ranked offense. The key without Embiid has been 3-point shooting — the Sixers have managed to knock down 41.3% of shots over the past five games, according to NBA Advanced Stats.
On the other side of the coin, the Warriors will play their third straight game without Stephen Curry, though it will likely return three frontcourt players to the rotation. Unsurprisingly, offense has been a challenge without Curry, who adds a ridiculous 13.1 points per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor compared to when he's off.
The Warriors managed to split two games against a poor Memphis Grizzlies defense without Curry, but against a Sixers unit that is highly engaged, I don’t think they’ll have the same level of success.
I like the under here as well with the Warriors’ frontcourt defense looking stronger, but I think the Sixers find ways to score, as they have all season long. I just don’t have any earthly idea how Golden State scores on this defense without Curry. I'd take this to -6.