Tuesday NBA Odds & Picks (Nov. 12): Betting Analysis, DFS Strategies, Injury News, More

This NBA season, I'm trying something new. I'm going to write a daily piece that highlights everything bettors and DFS players need to know for that night's slate. For more on what to expect, read the inaugural piece.

Yesterday I finished 1-0 for +1.0 unit. While I don't want to get sucked into the past, I think it's worth reviewing things each day.

The best way to do that is to look at closing line value (CLV), which is just measuring whether the line you bet moved for or against you by closing.

• I bet Rockets-Pelicans under 244 and it closed at 242.5

I grabbed the under here after Brandon Ingram was ruled out for the Pelicans, who were already without Lonzo Ball. On the year, the Pelicans have shot about 4% worse without Ingram, and they've struggled to get to the line. With that high of a number and without two starters, I'm glad I was able to grab the number before it dropped too much. Again, there's a ton of value in the NBA in turning on FantasyLabsNBA twitter alerts and getting news before the lines move to where they'll close.

I wrote about the Pistons and Wolves yesterday, and I unfortunately missed that +4 target number right before the game. That number didn't even matter as it turned out, as the Wolves won outright by six points.

There's not a lot more to talk about with regards to yesterday's slate; I think the market has gotten way more efficient over the last week or so.

Still, let's get to today's eight-game slate and find some angles. This is a long post, so use the jump links below to skip ahead to whatever you're looking for.

Note: For updates, see the chat at the bottom of this post.

YTD Record:

• Spreads: 20-19-1
• Totals: 11-7
• Moneylines: 5-0
• Props: 26-14

Betting Odds and Analysis

• 7 p.m. ET: Cleveland Cavaliers at Philadelphia 76ers (-10), 219
• 7 p.m. ET: OKC Thunder at Indiana Pacers (-2), 213
• 7:30 p.m. ET: Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat (-8.5), 215
• 8 p.m. ET: New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls (-6.5), 212.5
• 9 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets (-10), 209.5
• 9 p.m. ET: LA Lakers (-2.5) at Phoenix Suns, 220
• 9 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz (-7), 219.5
• 10 p.m. ET: Portland Trail Blazers (-2) at Sacramento Kings, 222

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).No strings attached. No rollover required.

Let's run through a couple situations for today.

Blazers-Kings: I was able to grab this line at Blazers +2 last night after the Kings announced that De'Aaron Fox tweaked his ankle in practice and was going for testing to determine the severity.

It sat at that number or +1 for a while until they finally ruled him out for 3-4 weeks, at which it fairly quickly moved to Blazers -2 on the road. If you want alerts on bets either before or after this post, make sure to follow me in the app.

The Kings have been just 2.5 points per 100 possessions better with Fox on vs. off this season, although I think that's underrating him a bit. He has a +8.3/100 split on offense and a -5.8/100 split on defense; I don't think point guards contribute that much to defense and thus would not put the blame on him. That's probably more of a starter/bench split than a Fox one.

The line moved four points, which might seem like a bit much for Fox, but I don't necessarily think it was a strong line anyway. The Blazers are certainly a better team, and their weaknesses so far — particularly forcing turnovers on defense, rebounding and limiting fouls — are ones that aren't strengths for Sacramento. It's unlikely the Blazers would've been punished for those.

One other weakness the Blazers have that the Kings could have exploited was in transition; Portland is allowing the most transition opportunities in the league so far this year.

That said, the Kings have played super slow without Fox on the court this year (they already weren't fast, which is odd). With Cory Joseph on and Fox off, the Kings have played at a 93.7 pace; for context, the Magic are last in the league this year with a 99.5 mark.

Fox is probably worth three-ish points in this game, but I think the line should've started around a pick'em, which means I would put this around Blazers -3. There's a bit of value still at -2, but unfortunately the value in both and spread and total (down to 222.5 from 227) is mostly gone.

Pistons at Heat: Man, do we have some injuries in this game. Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose are out for the Pistons, which definitely hurts. On the Heat's side, Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters and Derrick Jones Jr. are out, while Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Herro and James Johnson are questionable to suit up.

I thought about grabbing the Heat at -7.5 after the Griffin and Rose news, but I'm a little worried about all of the Heat's injuries. I personally like the under better, as I think a lot of the best offensive players could be either out or limited in this one.

There's limited data on the Pistons with Blake, so I won't cite that after just one game. He's obviously a valuable player offensively. We do have data on Rose, however, and the splits are stark.

• Pistons with Rose on: 104.3 pace, 115.4 Offensive Rating
• Pistons with Rose off: 96.5 pace, 106.9 Offensive Rating

The Pistons should be bad offensively tonight, and they were already due for regression: They lead the league in shooting on wide-open 3s at 45.9% — way above the league-average.

The Heat have also been a bit lucky, and I think there's some uncertainty with their offense tonight both because of the injuries but also the likely slow pace. I like the under and grabbed it at 217.

Cavs at 76ers: Al Horford is out, and Ben Simmons is questionable after missing the past two games with a sprained right shoulder. He was upgraded to that status, which is a positive indicator, but it's certainly not a guarantee that he will give it a go tonight.

Overall, here's how the Sixers have performed without Horford and Simmons:

• Both on: 103.2 pace, 111.8 Offensive Rating
• Both off: 99.9 pace, 112.6 Offensive Rating

That said, we're not talking about a huge sample here. I think it makes sense they would run a little less without Simmons at point, but I'm not sure that Offensive Rating will stay the course.

The lineups without those guys have scored at a rate of 114.8 points/100, but they've taken very few shots at the rim and from 3. It's been a bunch of longs 2s, of which those lineups have hit at a 54.2% rate — 96th percentile in the league. Yeah, we'll see some regression.

Further, the Cavs have actually been … not that bad? Their starting lineup has posted a ridiculous +16.0 Net Rating in 300 possessions. They've been good on both offense and defense, excelling particularly at rebounding and the free throw battle.

The issue for the Cavs has been their bench units, which have been bad. But if the 76ers are without two starters and thus have a limited bench themselves, that might not be a huge deal. All in all, I think this double-digit line is a bit high and think there's still a bit of value on the Cavs.

Another interesting bet is the Cavs +3 in the first quarter when we know those guys are going to play the most together. If Simmons is ruled out, I'll likely jump on both of those lines.

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Projected Starting Lineups and Injury News

Note: Info as of 3:30 p.m. ET. For up-to-the-minute lineups and news, see FantasyLabs' matchups page.

Projected Lineups

• Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young – Kevin Huerter – De’Andre Hunter – Jabari Parker – Damian Jones
• Brooklyn Nets: Kyrie Irving – Garrett Temple – Joe Harris – Taurean Prince – DeAndre Jordan
• Chicago Bulls: Tomas Satoransky – Zach LaVine – Chandler Hutchison – Lauri Markkanen – Wendell Carter Jr.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland – Collin Sexton – Cedi Osman – Kevin Love – Tristan Thompson
• Denver Nuggets: Jamal Murray – Gary Harris – Will Barton – Paul Millsap – Nikola Jokic
• Detroit Pistons: Bruce Brown – Luke Kennard – Tony Snell – Markieff Morris – Andre Drummond
• Indiana Pacers: Malcolm Brogdon – Aaron Holiday – TJ Warren – JaKarr Sampson – Domantas Sabonis
• LA Lakers: LeBron James – Avery Bradley – Danny Green – Anthony Davis – JaVale McGee
• Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler – Kendrick Nunn – Duncan Robinson – Meyers Leonard – Bam Adebayo
• New York Knicks: Frank Ntilikina – RJ Barrett – Marcus Morris – Julius Randle – Taj Gibson
• OKC Thunder: Chris Paul – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – Hamidou Diallo – Danilo Gallinari – Steven Adams
• Philadelphia 76ers: Ben Simmons – Josh Richardson – Furkan Korkmaz – Tobias Harris – Joel Embiid
• Phoenix Suns: Ricky Rubio – Devin Booker – Kelly Oubre – Dario Saric – Aron Baynes
• Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard – CJ McCollum – Rodney Hood – Mario Hezonja – Hassan Whiteside
• Sacramento Kings: Cory Joseph – Buddy Hield – Harrison Barnes – Nemanja Bjelica – Richaun Holmes
• Utah Jazz: Mike Conley – Donovan Mitchell – Bojan Bogdanovic – Royce O’Neale – Rudy Gobert

Injury News

• Atlanta Hawks: Evan Turner (Achilles) and Vince Carter (personal) are out. Alex Len (ankle), Allen Crabbe (knee) and Cam Reddish (shoulder) are probable.
• Brooklyn Nets: Caris LeVert (thumb) is out.
• Chicago Bulls: Otto Porter (foot) is out. Lauri Markkanen (oblique) will play.
• Cleveland Cavaliers: Nothing new.
• Denver Nuggets: Malik Beasley (illness) is questionable.
• Detroit Pistons: Blake Griffin (rest) and Derrick Rose (rest) are out. Bruce Brown (knee) is questionable.
• Indiana Pacers: Myles Turner (ankle), Jeremy Lamb (ankle) and Goga Bitadze (concussion) are out.
• LA Lakers: Anthony Davis (shoulder) is probable. Rajon Rondo (calf) is questionable. Troy Daniels (knee) is closer to doubtful.
• Miami Heat: Justise Winslow (concussion), Dion Waiters (suspension) and Derrick Jones Jr. (hip) are out. Kelly Olynyk (knee), Tyler Herro (ankle) and James Johnson (illness) are questionable.
• New York Knicks: Elfrid Payton (hamstring) and Mitchell Robinson (concussion) are out. Dennis Smith Jr. (personal) is available to play.
• OKC Thunder: Andre Roberson (knee) and Terrance Ferguson (personal) are out. Steven Adams (knee) will play.
• Philadelphia 76ers: Al Horford (rest) is out. Ben Simmons (shoulder) is questionable. Shake Milton (knee) is doubtful.
• Phoenix Suns: Nothing new.
• Portland Trail Blazers: Rodney Hood (back) and Hassan Whiteside (foot) are probable.
• Sacramento Kings: De’Aaron Fox (ankle) is out 3-4 weeks. Dewayne Dedmon (knee) is probable.
• Utah Jazz: Nothing new.

Player Props

To bet props, I use our FantasyLabs player props tool. Follow me in the Action Network app to see my bets (or go to the bottom of the article), but the more important thing is the tool, which measures our projections for every player vs. current odds in the market and highlights the biggest edges for you.

Player props are an inefficient market, which allows casual bettors (limits are low, so pro bettors aren't incentivized to prioritize them) to grab very +EV bets. That said, the lines move quickly. Our props tool is set up so you can always see whether there's an edge even at the updated numbers throughout the day.

It's one of my favorite tools we offer and should be one of your bookmarked pages if you like making a few extra bucks. Here's a screenshot of what it looks like:

My usual recommendation: Bet unders. Last season, 10-rated props in our tool hit at a 60.31% rate. But overs hit at a 57.08% rate vs. 66.47% for unders. For 9-rated props, 55.96% of overs were successful bets vs. 62.60% for unders.

As I have noted in the past, unders have more outs: A blowout, an injury, a poor shooting night — all will likely make the under hit. But also, props are less efficient as a market given the low limits, so they're less likely to adjust for things like opponent and pace.

One under I think is intriguing is De'Andre Hunter's 9.5-point total.

Hunter has gone under this mark easily in four of his last six games. He was billed coming out of Virginia as a defensive wing stud, and while he's shown that upside this season, the question remains on whether he can figure out the offensive end of the floor. So far in his rookie campaign, he's shooting just 36.7% from the field and 28.6% from beyond the arc.

He's not a high usage guy, and the two games he did go over this mark, it was simply because he got high volume in those games. That's not a certainty tonight — we're projecting him for 16% usage — and he's facing a Denver team on the road that ranks fourth on defense and 29th in pace.

DFS Values and Strategy

It's not a great night for studs in DFS. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the most expensive players, but they're on the road against a Phoenix team that has surprisingly been very solid on defense, ranking ninth so far. They've been great at defending the rim with Aron Baynes, which is important against those two guys.

Damian Lillard is on the road in Sacramento, and while he does have a nice ceiling, I think this game could be slower than expected (more on that above). Kyrie Irving has to face the Jazz on the road; Trae Young is in Denver.

Still, there are studs worth buying, especially in GPPs. Embiid could be without both Simmons and Horford, and he's at home against a Cleveland that has been bottom-five at defending the rim.

Andre Drummond and Jimmy Butler are in the same game and could benefit from the million injuries in that one (more on that above, too). Domantas Sabonis has been crushing, playing huge minutes and is without a good chunk of fellow starters.

Those are likely the guys to target, and thankfully there are some values with so many injuries on the slate. Cory Joseph is just $3,700 tonight on DraftKings, and he'll approach 30 minutes against a leaky Portland defense with Fox out the next 3-4 weeks with an ankle injury. JaKarr Sampson and Aaron Holiday should continue to start for Indy.

Some of the best values, however, are slightly below the stud range. Rudy Gobert, for example, is just $7,500 on DraftKings, and he'll go up against a Brooklyn team that has been utter trash on the road this year. The Nets are 26th on offense, and they've allowed the sixth-most shots at the rim.

Perhaps most importantly, though, their offense is built around attacking the paint; they're second in shots at the rim. That gives Gobert a lot of upside to rack up blocks, which are highly valuable in tournaments.

Overall, the most important thing today is to monitor injuries and make sure you're using a projection system (i.e. our FantasyLabs models) to account for all of the changes. We're still waiting on a lot of news for Miami, and Simmons is a big question mark.

For more DFS analysis and value plays, check out the FantasyLabs NBA models.

My Bets Currently

• Blazers +2 (I wouldn't bet past -2)
• Under 217 in Pistons-Heat (I wouldn't bet past 216)
• Waiting for Simmons news on Cavs +10 and +3 1Q

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Follow me in our free app if you want an alert on bets I make. I'll also make updates in the chat below.

Updates and Live Chat

I will put updated thoughts below, whether they're about line movement, injury news, etc. You can also ask questions, which I'll answer as quickly as I can.