Friday NBA Betting, DFS Cheat Sheet for All 13 Games: Favorite Bets, Pro System Matches, More
Photo credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nikola Jokic
In today’s NBA betting and DFS cheat sheet, we give notes on the betting market and key injuries, plus analysis on DFS plays, player props and our favorite bets.
Here are the games on tonight’s slate:
- Atlanta Hawks at Orlando Magic (-9), 7 p.m. ET
- Toronto Raptors (-6) at Charlotte Hornets, 7 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs (-6.5) at Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics (-1) at Indiana Pacers, 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Detroit Pistons at Oklahoma City Thunder (-7), 8 p.m. ET
- Miami Heat (-3.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves, 8 p.m. ET
- New York Knicks at Houston Rockets (-18), 8 p.m. ET
- Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks (-4), 8:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Utah Jazz (-10), 9 p.m. ET
- New Orleans Pelicans (-3) at Phoenix Suns, 10 p.m. ET
- Portland Trail Blazers at Denver Nuggets (-6.5), 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN
- Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-15.5), 10:30 p.m. ET
- LA Lakers at LA Clippers (-11), 10:30 p.m. ET
All data as of 5 p.m. ET on Friday. For live odds and betting percentages click here.
Friday NBA Most Public Bets
- Pelicans -2.5 at Suns: 88% of bets
- Clippers -11 vs. Lakers: 79%
- Under 224 in Pelicans-Suns: 78%
- Raptors -6 at Hornets: 76%
- Over 224 in Raptors-Hornets: 73%
Friday NBA: Injuries to Know
In our NBA Injury Report, we broke down the betting and DFS impact of some of tonight’s key injury situations.
- Dallas Mavericks: Luka Doncic (thigh), Dwight Powell (rest) and Jalen Brunson (rest) are out. Dorian Finney-Smith (mouth) is probable.
- Phoenix Suns: Devin Booker (ankle), Deandre Ayton (ankle) and Richaun Holmes (ankle) are out.
Here’s a snippet from that piece on the Mavericks:
A very shorthanded team could lead to immense value in DFS. In Doncic’s recent two absences, Courtney Lee entered the starting lineup while Trey Burke shouldered the offensive load.
Burke exceeded 30 DraftKings points in each game with a 25.6% usage rate. He led the team with 30 minutes per game and could step into even heavier playing time with both Doncic and Brunson out. At $4,200 on FanDuel, he makes for one of the slate’s strongest plays.
Ryan Broekhoff and Daryl Macon are candidates to enter the rotation depending on who is available. With Powell out, Maxi Kleber and Salah Mejri would benefit from additional minutes. Kleber has recorded a FantasyLabs’ +3.16 DraftKings Plus/Minus over his last 10 games, while Mejri ranks second on the team with 1.01 DraftKings points per minute since the DeAndre Jordan trade, per the NBA On/Off tool.
Both teams have incentive to lose with identical current records of 31-47. According to Tankathon, each team has an 8.3% chance at the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 NBA Draft. Opposing point guard Mike Conley (ankle) has already been ruled out, and the game becomes harder to handicap with a plethora of backups playing.
When Doncic has been off the court this season, the Mavs defense has actually improved from a 109.9 Defensive Rating to a 104.4 Defensive Rating. If each team carries a thin rotation with a lack of star power, the under of 215 likely provides the most value.
Friday NBA: DFS Values and Tournament Plays
Due to some injury situations, along with different roles for players out of the playoff race, there’s a ton of value on today’s NBA DFS slate.
Right now, there are five players with Projected Plus/Minus values above +7.5 on DraftKings:
- Trey Burke ($4,600) vs. Grizzlies: +14.99 Projected Plus/Minus
- Josh Jackson ($5,900) vs. Pelicans: +11.23 Projected Plus/Minus
- Jamal Crawford ($3,600) vs. Pelicans: +8.51 Projected Plus/Minus
- Troy Daniels ($3,200) vs. Pelicans: +7.58 Projected Plus/Minus
You’ll notice a ton of Suns guys at the top of our models today, which is no surprise as almost all of their players are out due to injury. Especially with Booker and Ayton sitting, there’s a ton of possessions and shots to go around.
Josh Jackson will likely be the focal point of the offense: Per our injury report, he’s led the team with a massive 29.2% usage rate with Booker and Ayton off the floor. Jackson likely won’t be efficient, but that matters little in DFS; usage is king, and Jackson and his fellow starters should get a ton at low prices.
Friday NBA: Best Player Props
There are currently 16 player props in our tool with a Bet Quality of 10. This season, those bets have both hit at a 57% win rate.
One of those is Bradley Beal to go under his 25 point prop.
The Wizards are out of the playoff race, and they’ve hinted at wanting to either shut Beal down or at least be very cautious with him. He played just 22 minutes in their last game against the Bulls, and we’re currently projecting him for just 25 against the Spurs.
There’s likely a ton of value in this last week of the season in the props department as teams wholly reshape rotations due to late-season tanking or just being out of the playoffs and not wanting to extend their franchise players. Make sure to check out our tool for more instances of that.
Note: Player props move very quickly, and our projections are updated throughout the day in reaction to news. For up-to-date projections compared to posted props, visit the FantasyLabs Player Props Tool.