NBA Betting Picks: Our Staff’s 4 Favorite Bets for Monday

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Monday’s slate is loaded with 11 games, including some intriguing matchups in the West. Will Chris Paul be the Thunder guard to watch in his first game back in Houston against the Rockets? Will the Warriors bounce back from their rough start to the season?

Our NBA analysts have perused the slate and found four of their favorites bets, which they’ve detailed below.

Odds as of Monday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Wob: Magic at Raptors

• Odds: Raptors -5
• Total: 210.5
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

Sneaky revenge game for the Magic back in Toronto after stealing Game 1 of the playoffs last season and then getting wiped out of the postseason by Kawhi Leonard.

But Kawhi is not there anymore, and every single member of the Raptors core has run at least 33 minutes per game through the first week with a few bumps and bruises to key players along the way.

I do not trust them to keep this championship momentum as we enter the grind of the three games a week NBA regular season. The Magic are young, blood-thirsty, and want to turn every contest into a battle of stamina as they continue to run a 10-man rotation.

I don’t think Toronto is nearly good or fit enough to match what they’ll concede against Orlando’s intensity tonight. Just calling it as I see it. Fin.

The PICK: Magic +5  [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Brandon Anderson: Thunder at Rockets

• Odds: Rockets -10
• Total: 227.5
• Time: 8 p.m. ET

It’s been one heck of a start for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Oklahoma City. SGA has scored 26, 28, and 19 points in his three Thunder games, and that 19 would’ve been even higher had the Thunder not blown out the Warriors and let the starters hit the bench early. He’s become one of the early Most Improved Player candidates.

Gilgeous-Alexander is also starting to use all that length to his advantage. He recorded 16 rebounds over his past two games, more than doubling his rebounds per game so far from his rookie season.

It helps that SGA is playing up a position or two in OKC, giving him more rebounding opportunities, and the betting market may not have caught on yet. And it never hurts to play at Houston’s pace, adding a few extra possessions and long rebounding opportunities.

Our FantasyLabs projections put SGA at 5.8 rebounds and rate this prop a 10 out of 10. All the better that you’re getting +115 odds on it until everyone else catches on.

The PICK: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 4.5 rebounds 

Matt Moore: Trail Blazers at Spurs

• Odds: Spurs -6
• Total: 222
• Time: 8:30 p.m. ET

So Jusuf Nurkic is obviously still out with his broken leg until early next year. Zach Collins suffered a dislocated shoulder Sunday and will miss this game. (Pau Gasol’s out, too, but who knows if he’ll actually play this year.)

So the Blazers’ frontcourt rotation is Hassan Whiteside and Skal Labissiére vs. the Spurs. These are high-athleticism players who struggle with defensive awareness and are mistake-prone. Whiteside, for example, had a -12.7 Net Rating vs. the Spurs last year.

Whiteside was great vs. the Nuggets … right up until Nikola Jokic played him off the floor. Whiteside was great vs. the Kings because they are a dumpster on fire rolling downhill into a combustible sewage depository. He was a -4 in 26 minutes vs. the Mavericks.

San Antonio’s bigs are better and more versatile. The Collins injury really hurts the Blazers’ rebounding and versatility. They have been categorically bad without Whiteside on the floor (-5.9 per 100 possessions).

San Antonio’s favored by six Monday, and the Blazers being on a back-to-back is factored in. The line also jumped off from Spurs -3.5 to -5.5 with Collins’ injury. 538’s RAPTOR rating has the game at Spurs -4. But with it being less than two full possessions, after Portland narrowly beat the Mavericks, there’s still value on the Spurs.

The PICK: Spurs -5.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

John Ewing: Warriors at Pelicans

• Spread: Pelicans -4.5
• Over/Under: 237
• Time: 8 p.m. ET

The Warriors played on Sunday and will lace up their sneakers once again on Monday. Casual bettors will likely think Golden State is at a disadvantage playing consecutive games, but the data shows NBA teams have been undervalued in this scenario early in the season.

Road teams on a back-to-back early in the season (Games 2-12) have gone 235-172-5 (57.7%) against the spread since 2004. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,331 following this strategy.

The Warriors haven’t looked like the unbeatable champions from the past few years to start this season. More than 60% of spread tickets are on the Pelicans tonight. After a slow start and on a back-to-back, this is a good buy-low opportunity on Steph Curry & Co.

The PICK: Warriors +4.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]