Wednesday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Hornets vs. Nets, Thunder vs. Kings

Wednesday’s NBA Experts Picks: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Hornets vs. Nets, Thunder vs. Kings article feature image

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marvin Bagley III

There are 11 games on the NBA schedule for Wednesday night and our experts are betting totals, spreads and props in all four matchups:

  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
  • 7:30 p.m. ET: Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves
  • 10 p.m. ET: Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings 

See what bets they’re making below.

Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

Rob Perez: Hornets at Nets

  • Spread: Nets -10
  • Over/Under: 216.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

This will be the third time these teams have played each other in the past two and a half weeks. The previous results? Nets wins by seven and 10 points.

The Hornets are on the second leg of a road back-to-back, defeating the Wizards at home less than 24 hours ago, but here’s the thing: when you give burn to a bunch of young dudes playing for contracts. Fatigue and motivation are never factors.

It is not easy to beat a team three straight times after they get the book on you and are able to make adjustments, let alone cover a double-digit spread.

Expect the Hornets, at the very least, to keep this close in a dramatic finish. They couldn’t close a window in a window store, but they have proven they can run with just about anybody in the league.

At some point they’re going to catch the Nets slipping against them, and because they’ve seen these guys more than their own families the past three weeks — that night is tonight.

The PICK: Hornets +10.5
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Bryan Mears: Jazz at Timberwolves

  • Spread: Jazz -1.5
  • Over/Under: 222.5
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET

I brought up whether it was time to panic on the Jazz about a week and a half ago, and I was told no (I disagreed). It’s time now, though, right?

The Jazz have now dropped six of their last eight, and the two wins both came against the Grizzlies, which probably shouldn’t even count. Sure, the losses were to really good teams, including the Lakers, Sixers, Raptors and Bucks, to name a few, but it’s not like they were competitive in those. They lost to the Bucks by four, but the other five losses were all by nine points or more. Most of them were blowouts.

Looking under the hood, things are terrible right now. On the season, the Jazz have the 23rd-ranked offense. They’ve been getting to the line well, but that’s about where the praise ends.

Their shot profile is terrible, they can’t make anything anyway, they turn it over a ton and they rarely grab rebounds. It’s hard to find a case for optimism with that unit. They are literally the worst halfcourt offense in the entire league.

Defensively, they’re still fine, ranking 11th in efficiency. I’m a little concerned by the fact that a Rudy Gobert led team ranks 24th in opponent shooting at the rim. Further, despite their talent and athletes, they force turnovers very infrequently. Still, it’s easy to believe in that talent on that end, and there are some positive indicators despite the negative ones.

Back to the offense, though. You might think they’ve just been unlucky shooting the ball. But in their last eight games, they’re actually fourth in the league in eFG% (62.5%) on wide-open shots. They’re getting them at a pretty decent rate and hitting them, but it just hasn’t mattered given the rest of their shots, their profile and the other four-factor issues. They’re in a hole too deep.

I’m selling them right now until I see any indication they’re turning things around offensively, and I think the way to do it is the under in this game.

The concern might be the pace, as the Wolves rank seventh in the league in seconds per play. That said, they have noticeable pace splits:

  • Wolves’ pace & efficiency ranks off missed FGs: 16th in pace, 27th in efficiency
  • Wolves’ pace & efficiency ranks off made FGs: fourth in pace, fourth in efficiency

Minnesota can get into a shootout with a team that hits shots. But do we really trust the Jazz to be able to hit shots? I don’t.

The under in this game also matches a Pro System I adjusted, which highlights reverse line moves on the under:

The PICK: Under 222.5
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

Brandon Anderson: Thunder at Kings

  • Spread: Kings-1.5
  • Over/Under: 208
  • Time: 10 p.m. ET

Look, no one likes to root against a guy coming back from injury, but money is money. Marvin Bagley hasn’t played since he fractured his thumb in the season opener. He’s probable to make his return tonight, but we don’t know yet whether he’ll start or play on a minutes limit. It’s fair to think Bagley may not be a full go yet.

And yet, here we are with a line of 15.5 points. Bagley averages 14.9 points per game for his career! And yeah, that’s a few points higher as a starter playing high minutes, but again, why should we expect Bagley to step into a peak role after six weeks away? It’s not like it’s a particularly great matchup against the Thunder.

Our Player Props tool rates this under a 10 out of 10, and our models project Bagley to fall well short here with just 9.1 points, giving this prop 43% value in your favor. Don’t miss out.

The PICK: Marvin Bagley under 15.5 points
[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at FanDuel]

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