NBA Finals Odds: Expert Analysis For Remaining Teams, Including Nuggets & Heat

NBA Finals Odds: Expert Analysis For Remaining Teams, Including Nuggets & Heat article feature image
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Aaron Ontiveroz/Getty. Pictured (left to right): Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Nikola Jokic.

The Denver Nuggets stormed back in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals to secure a sweep of the Los Angeles Lakers. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets now await their NBA Finals opponent out of the East.

Shockingly, the Miami Heat — the No. 8 seed that has taken the NBA Playoffs by storm — have all but punched their ticket to the final series of the playoffs. No team has ever recovered from a 3-0 deficit in the NBA Playoffs, but if there was a team that could do it, perhaps it is the Boston Celtics. They came into the series as a -550 favorite, but the No. 2 seed has looked lifeless in the closing stages of games.

In Game 3, Miami was relentless, taking a lead over 30 and placing the Celtics in a dire spot. With all of that being said, how do the NBA Finals odds currently look?

Unsurprisingly, a Nuggets team that has looked every bit like a deserving title team is a whopping -290 favorite at FanDuel to achieve that feat. The best odds you can currently find on Denver are -270 at PointsBet.

Over in the East, the Heat are strongly favored to represent the Eastern Conference, which is understandable. Miami is listed at +290 at FanDuel, with the Celtics at +1500. The best odds you can find on the Cs are at Caesars, who is offering +1600. For Miami, that +290 line represents the best number.

Are any of these numbers playable? Read on to see how our NBA experts view the market for the Nuggets, with tidbits on the other squads.

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NBA Finals Expert Analysis

Brandon Anderson: The current price on the Nuggets bakes in a small chance that they would have to square off with the Celtics. Although it is small, the Cs would have home court advantage in that scenario. However, I would've projected this a touch shorter, and -290 isn't touchable. Perhaps with every Celtics win (if they come) this price will become shorter and in the range of something playable, but at the moment, there isn't a side I feel great about.

Matt Moore: A little better than a 3-1 favorite feels right for the Heat vs. Nuggets matchup. If this number moves a lot lower, it's because the books have made a hefty pre-series adjustment to Miami, which I don't anticipate being that drastic, as power ratings are sticky. I'd project -250 on the Nuggets against Miami, and I also wouldn't play the current number.

Bryan Fonseca: The Nuggets look so overwhelming, plus Miami hasn't been a road favorite and won't be. Denver would be a distant favorite going into the series if/when the Heat clinch, but it shouldn't be excessively overpriced right away. The Heat might get a little more respect from the books because they've at least improbably made it this far, but don't anticipate much.

Keeping the Heat from being a heavier dog is primarily Jimmy Butler and Erik Spoelstra, who are 39-20 against the spread since The Bubble, and have led the Heat to an NBA-best 36 playoff wins since Butler got to Miami. I wouldn't back the Nuggets, and be wary of this Heat team that is clicking in a serious way.

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Jul 14, 2024 UTC