NBA Odds & Pick: Jazz vs. Knicks Drawing Sharp Bettors Wednesday Night (Jan. 6)

NBA Odds & Pick: Jazz vs. Knicks Drawing Sharp Bettors Wednesday Night (Jan. 6) article feature image
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Julio Aguilar/Getty Images. Pictured: Julius Randle

  • The Jazz are coming off a blowout loss to the Nets but sharp bettors aren't going away from Utah when it takes on the Knicks on a back-to-back on Wednesday night.
  • See all the PRO Report signals pointing to the Jazz, though our model thinks the line movement has gone too far.

NBA Odds: Jazz vs. Knicks

Jazz Odds -7.5
Knicks Odds +7.5
Over/Under 213.5
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV SportsNet RM

Quite a day it’s been for sports bettors in New York. After waking up to the news of Gov. Cuomo embracing mobile sports betting, New Yorkers now get the chance to bet on their Knicks in tonight’s meeting with the Jazz — a team coming off a 31-point loss to Brooklyn just a night ago.

But while the 4-3 Knicks are getting seven and a half points against a team boasting the same record, sharp bettors aren’t seeing New York as the smart play tonight, at least according to our PRO Report.

Note: Odds, data as of 12 p.m. ET.

Track all of the week’s sharp action…

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina (tonight!)

NFL Wild Card Round

CFP National Championship Game

NBA Pick: Jazz vs. Knicks

Big bets from sharps have instead been landing on the Jazz, and extending this spread from its opening number. There is, however, an indication (based on our model’s projection) that the movement may have finally gone a bit too far.

Sharp Action

As of writing, 60% of bettors have taken the points with the Knicks. So the line’s movement toward the opposite side should, in itself, serve as a pretty strong hint of sharp action on the Jazz.

For confirmation, Action Labs has triggered a Bet Signal on Utah, revealing a market-wide move at -6.5 caused specifically by professional action.

Sharp Action edge: Jazz

Big Money

Serving as another indicator of pros’ opinion, the 40% backing of the Jazz has generated 75% of the actual money being wagered on the spread.

Of course, that’s worth sportsbooks’ attention simply as a monetary liability, but perhaps more importantly, the significant discrepancy between bets and money reveals how bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are playing this game.

Big Money edge: Jazz

PRO Systems

Also worth noting, the bet-vs.-money discrepancy isn’t just indicative of sharp action, it’s actually led to a profit, historically speaking.

The current split fits the Jazz into our “NBA Tickets vs. Money” PRO System, which has returned a 55% win rate on a sample of more than 600 games since 2005 (when we began collecting money percentage data).

PRO Systems edge: Jazz

Model Projection

While there’s little question of why sportsbooks have been forced to shift this line, there’s always a point of too much movement, and our NBA model suggests that this number may have reached it.

It projects the true spread closer to the opener, at Jazz -6.1, which may be foreshadowing of some buyback should this line continue to grow.

Model Projection edge: Knicks

Track all of the week’s sharp action…

Texas A&M vs. South Carolina (tonight!)

NFL Wild Card Round

CFP National Championship Game

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