NBA Odds, Picks, Player Props: How to Bet Brook Lopez & Ja Morant (May 7)
Photo by Brian Babineau/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Brook Lopez (Bucks)
It seems like these two series draw the most attention in the second round, as all four teams have the pedigree to make it to the NBA Finals.
I have selected a couple of points/rebounds/assists props to target today, so let’s get right into it.
We’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Brook Lopez, Over 15.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-125)
|Celtics vs. Bucks||Bucks -1.5|
|Time | TV||3:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
After splitting in Boston, this Bucks-Celtics series switches venues, as they will play Game 3 in Milwaukee.
Both games were not all that competitive, as the Bucks won Game 1 by 12 points and the Celtics won Game 2 by 23 points. The Bucks are 1.5-point favorites, so we hopefully will get a close game.
Brook Lopez has the same line for points/rebounds/assists as he does for points/rebounds, so it makes sense to add in assists, even though our model has him only projected for 0.6 assists today.
All together, Lopez is projected for 20.6 points/rebounds/assists, which makes this a strong value on the board.
Lopez seems to thrive playing at home. He has hit the over in all three home playoff games, and also hit the over in 65% of his games played this season.
He has only played in 20 total games, as he dealt with an injury for most of the season. Lopez will likely only play 25-30 minutes, but he can still be very productive.
After leading the league in defensive rating during the regular season, the Celtics rank fifth during the playoffs. A big advantage was getting back Robert Williams III, who makes this defense complete.
This game has a 213 total — which is less appealing than the second game — but this is a spot to take advantage of.
Taking Lopez’s points/rebounds at the same number does provide more value, and I am comfortable taking that if you insist. Lopez has averaged eight rebounds per game in this series, so even taking his rebound prop with juice on the over makes sense too.
This is a great spot to target Lopez.
Ja Morant, Under 45.5 Points/Rebounds/Assists (-125)
|Grizzlies vs. Warriors||Warriors -7|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET | ABC|
Another enticing series that is tied up at one game apiece is this Western Conference clash between the Warriors and Grizzlies.
After the Warriors escaped Game 1 despite Draymond Green being ejected, they fell short in Game 2, as Ja Morant took over with 47 points.
In the Grizzlies’ first-round series against the Timberwolves that went six games, Morant wasn’t as good playing on the road. He averaged 35.3 points/rebounds/assists compared to 46 points/rebounds/assists while playing at home.
In those three road games, Morant shot 28.9% from the field and 10% from behind the arc.
This isn’t just a small sample size either. Morant shot 46.6% from the field and 29.6% from downtown on the road during the season compared to 52.3% and 40.4% at home.
Losing Gary Payton II, who is an elite defensive guard for the Warriors, is helpful to Morant, but these numbers for him on the road are still staggering.
The Warriors were 31-10 at home during the regular season and 3-0 during the playoffs thus far, so being seven-point favorites should be no surprise. Dillon Brooks was also suspended for tonight’s game due to his flagrant two foul in Game 2. That will draw even more defensive attention to Morant.
Fading Morant is always a little scary. I mean the dude is averaging 40.5 points, nine assists and 8.5 rebounds per game in this series.
However, numbers don’t lie. Fading Morant on the road has resulted in a positive outcome all season long, and we won’t stop now.
This game also could get very out of hand.