Welcome to Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide Playbook. For each game, we've built a solid base parlay to get us started, followed by a spicier, compounding angle using alternate lines for a deeper long-shot payout.
Tonight, I have my eye on a Western Conference showdown between the Timberwolves and Rockets and the Nuggets hosting the Raptors.
Let's get into my NBA parlay picks and SGP predictions for Wednesday, November 4.
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NBA Parlay Picks for Timberwolves vs. Rockets
The Angle: Bigs Set Up Shooters in Houston
Alperen Sengun 6+ Assists
Alperen Sengun continues to cement himself as one of the league's best passing big men. He essentially has averaged five assists per game (5.0, 4.9, and 6.2) in each of the last three years. This season, he is on pace for a new career high as he is averaging 7.8 assists per game.
Sengun has recorded at least seven assists in each of his past five games and nine or more in each of the last three. Tonight, he will have a difficult matchup as he will face the Timberwolves and their second-ranked defense.
However, the Rockets rank second in offensive rating. The return of Fred VanVleet has helped them look far less clunky offensively, and that has helped Sengun in the assist department.
Additionally, Sengun had eight assists in his final game against Minnesota last season. In fact, the last three times he has cleared this line against Minnesota, he has had 11, seven, and eight assists. I like six to eight assists as the sweet spot for him tonight.
Pick: Alperen Sengun 6+ Assists
Jabari Smith Jr. 15+ Points
Fueling the Rockets' No. 2 offense has been their depth, as they have eight players averaging double figures and four averaging over 16 points per game. One of them is Jabari Smith Jr., and while there is the caveat that he has played just eight games, he is currently on pace for his best season on the offensive end.
The 23-year-old is averaging 18.4 points per game on 49/48/88 shooting splits and a 61.3% effective field goal percentage.
Smith is a career 35% shooter from three and has a 52.2% effective field goal percentage for his career, so there likely will be some regression for him. However, his hot start has helped him score at least 14 points in seven of his first eight games and 15 in four of them.
In fact, the Rockets have not needed to heavily rely on Kevin Durant yet, as he is currently averaging his fewest points and field goal attempts per game since his rookie year.
Durant has had a strong history against Minnesota of late, but so has Smith. Smith has scored 15 points in six of his last nine games against Minnesota and made two threes in seven of them. If his hot start from the perimeter continues, both of those trends will continue.
Pick: Jabari Smith Jr. 15+ Points
Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 Assists
With Anthony Edwards sidelined for the foreseeable future, the Timberwolves need additional playmaking outside of LaMelo Ball. Ayo Dosunmu stepped up on Monday and nearly recorded a triple-double with 19 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists. However, an underrated source of playmaking has been Jaden McDaniels.
McDaniels has averaged just 1.8 assists per game for his career but has continued to expand his game in that area. He averaged 2.7 assists per game last season and is up to 3.5 per game this season. He has had at least three assists in each of his last seven games, including four assists in three of them.
Additionally, the Rockets are 22nd in assists allowed to small forwards and 26th to power forwards, McDaniels' two primary positions. He has cleared this line in three of his last five games against Houston.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 Assists
LaMelo Ball 3+ Made Threes
Ball may be in a new city these days, but that has not stopped him from firing away from three. Ball is averaging roughly 14 field goal attempts through his first eight games, with nine of them coming from three. Ball is averaging 3.3 made threes per game and shooting 36.6% from deep.
The Rockets are 17th in 3-point percentage allowed to point guards this season. Ball has made four threes in three of his last four games against them. He has also made four threes in four of his first six games, including six triples in two of his last three games.
Pick: LaMelo Ball 3+ Made Threes
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+547, FanDuel)
- Alperen Sengun 6+ Assists
- Jabari Smith Jr. 15+ Points
- Jaden McDaniels Over 2.5 Assists
- LaMelo Ball 3+ Threes
Compounding Angle (+2329, FanDuel)
NBA Parlay Picks for Raptors vs. Nuggets
The Angle: Jokic's Slow Start Doesn't Prevent High-Scoring Affair
Nikola Jokic Under 47.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Nikola Jokic's stats and accomplishments over the last six seasons are truly staggering. He has averaged 26.9 points, 12.4 rebounds, and 9.3 assists while winning one title, three MVPs, and finishing top two in MVP voting and making the All-NBA First Team all six seasons. However, Jokic injured his knee in late December and missed a month.
While his counting stats were still good when he returned, he was not the same player. He was not as efficient, and that hurt the Nuggets as well, leading to a first-round exit. Last year's finish has bled into this year, as he is averaging 22 points, 9.7 rebounds, and nine assists with 47/22/88 shooting splits. Again, those are great numbers for most, but also Jokic's worst in several categories in years.
I have seen some suggest that he is beginning to fall out of his prime. While I am not ready to make that proclamation over half a season and six games, he has gone under his PRA line in five of his first six games this season. Due to his strong history, Jokic's lines are still pretty high. His line is 47.5 tonight, but he is averaging 40.7 PRA while surpassing 40 just three times thus far.
Speaking of his priors, Jokic recorded 50+ PRA in four games against the Raptors between December 2023 and November 2024. However, in his lone game against them since returning from his knee injury, he had 39 PRA last March in Denver. A similar outing would put him safely under this line again.
Pick: Nikola Jokic Under 47.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
RJ Barrett 20+ Points
Since returning home to play for his hometown team, RJ Barrett has averaged 20 points per game. He is off to a similar start this season, as he is averaging 20.7 points per game while shooting 49.1% from the field. He has scored 20 points in six of his first seven games.
The Raptors envisioned a big three with Kawhi Leonard, Scottie Barnes, and Barrett, but that is on hold for the time being, with Leonard shut down because of his recurring knee injury. Barrett has already scored 25 points twice in the five games that Leonard has missed.
Barrett has scored 20 points in nine of his last 10 games without Leonard or Brandon Ingram, averaging 22 points per game.
Pick: RJ Barrett 20+ Points
Over 230.5 Points
A notable trend in the Jokic era has been to take the over in Nuggets home games. That is usually because the Nuggets have been elite offensively, but their defense has lagged behind. This season, the Nuggets are 23rd in defensive rating. Their home games have all had at least 228 points thus far, and the over is 2-1.
After three straight unders to begin this season, the over has hit in each of the Raptors' last four games. Additionally, these teams are 6-4 to the over in their last 10 meetings, and seven of them have had at least 230 points.
By combining Jokic's PRA under with the game total going over, we get an odds boost because of the negative correlation.
Pick: Over 230.5 Points
