NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Fade Lou Williams vs. the Mavericks (Tuesday, Aug. 25)
Jim Poorten/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Lou Williams of the LA Clippers against the Dallas Mavericks.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Today’s player props come from both of the slate’s games:
- Denver Nuggets vs. Utah Jazz at 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks at 9:00 p.m. ET on TNT
NBA Player Prop Bets
Utah Jazz, Donovan Mitchell
The Prop: Over 4.5 rebounds (+125)
With respect to Luka Doncic, Donovan Mitchell has been the breakout star of the NBA playoffs so far. Mitchell is averaging 39.5 points a game with insane advanced metrics: 74% true shooting, a 42.3 PER, and an incredible 147 Offensive Rating.
Of course, none of that helps us with rebounds. You could argue it actually hurts us. Mitchell is on an all-time heater, and the best way to not get rebounds is to make every shot. But all good things must come to an end, and ‘Spida’ is bound to miss shots eventually. When he does, he’s going to have to find other ways to impact the game, like hitting the boards with his energy.
Mitchell is playing 35.8 minutes per game, and he averaged a career-best 4.6 rebounds per 36 minutes this regular season. That puts us right at the number. But wait! All these Mitchell averages are actually a bit low since the Jazz blew out the Nuggets in Games 2 and 3.
He played 38 and 43 minutes in the two close games, and you have to believe the Nuggets will keep this one close with the season on the line. More minutes means more rebounding opportunities, and at +115, these odds are in our favor. I’ll play it down to +100.
Utah Jazz, Rudy Gobert
The Prop: Over 11.5 rebounds (-121)
You can already see the logic on this one. Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are the best two players on the Jazz and certain to play as many minutes as they’re able if this game is close. Gobert played 32 and 34 minutes in the two blowout wins but 39 and 42 in the close games.
Gobert’s rebounding numbers have been down this series. He’s averaging less than 10 rebounds per game after pulling down 13.5 in the regular season, and he’s gone under 11.5 boards in three of four games this series.
But rebounds can be high variance. We know Gobert is the best rebounder on the court and should be out there a lot. And if Utah’s offense slows down a bit, that should provide more offensive rebounding opportunities for Rudy too.
We’re projecting Gobert at 37.2 minutes and 13.6 rebounds, so there’s a margin for error here. Gobert has had 14 and 11 boards in his past two games, so this seems well in range. I’m happy to play it alongside Mitchell’s rebounds up to -135.
Los Angeles Clippers, Lou Williams
The Prop: Under 18.5 points (-125)
The Clippers and Mavericks have our full attention now. This one has emerged as the series to watch in Round 1, and the Clippers have struggled to find answers even as the Mavs have yet to get a full effort from both their stars in any game.
Lou Williams is good for one huge game in any playoff series, and he just used it up in Game 4, pouring in 36 points that were ultimately not enough in an overtime loss. Williams can be a brilliant scorer when he gets hot, but he is really hurting the Clippers on defense. Luka Doncic is hunting the worst defender on the court and attacking mercilessly, and anytime Williams is out there, he’s probably the pick.
The Clippers need to get more defense on the court, even if that’s at the cost of a scorer, and Williams is the most likely option to go. He had 25 games of 22 or more points this season but also 19 games of 12 or fewer. His 36 points in Game 4 were a season high. Williams has averaged just 15.7 points per game in the previous three games of this series, and that’s about where we project him to be tonight — 15.9 points in 28.7 minutes.
I’m worried Williams may get played off the court a bit as the Clippers search for defense, and you can’t score from the bench. I’ll play to -150 and would like this even more if it drops to 18.0 at better odds.