Sunday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Kevin Durant and Lonzo Ball Assists
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lonzo Ball.
- Sunday night's four-game NBA slate features two player prop bets offering value
- This piece will focus on Lakers PG Lonzo Ball and Warriors SF Kevin Durant
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Sunday’s best props focus on two of the slate’s four games:
- Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat: 6 p.m. ET
- Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs: 7 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Warriors SF Kevin Durant
The Pick: Over 6.5 assists (+120)
I lost on this prop yesterday, but I’m going right back to the well today. Draymond Green and Steph Curry both remain out for the Golden State Warriors, and Durant has seen a massive boost to his assist rate with both players off the court this season. The result is an average of 7.2 assists per 36 minutes, so I’m willing to take a chance on this prop at better than even money.
I liked this prop yesterday at 7.0, so I obviously like it even more at just 6.5. I’d play the over up to -120.
Lakers PG Lonzo Ball
The Pick: Over six assists (-130)
The gap between Ball and Rajon Rondo at point guard is widening. Lonzo has seen at least 27 minutes in each of his past three games, and he’s currently projected for 33 tonight in our NBA Models.
If he’s going to see that much court time, this prop is probably too low: Ball has averaged 7.4 assists per 36 minutes through his first two NBA seasons. That number has come down a bit this season, which is not shocking considering they added LeBron James, but Lonzo is still averaging 6.9 assists per 36 minutes when sharing the court with James.
The Lakers are in one of the best spots of the day vs. the Miami Heat, and their implied team total of 113.25 ranks second on the slate.
Lonzo’s game clearly has warts, but he can distribute the basketball with the best of ‘em. I’d play this lineup up to -160 but wouldn’t play it at higher than 6.0.