Raybon’s Favorite NBA Props for Thursday: Will Derrick White Grab 4 Rebounds?
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Antonio Spurs point guard Derrick White (4)
- Chris Raybon breaks down his favorite NBA player props for Thursday night.
- Props include Nuggets PF Paul Millsap's points and Spurs PG Derrick White's rebounds.
The two player props highlighted below are from the lone NBA playoff game on Thursday night (word on the street is that the NFL might have something going on at the same time):
- Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs: 8 p.m. ET on TNT
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 5:30 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Nuggets PF Paul Millsap
THE PICK: Under 12.5 Points (-125)
Although the under on Millsap’s point prop is 1-1 in this series, his home/road splits are generally as expected:
- Home: 15.3 PPG | 9.7 FGA | 51.7% FG%
- Road: 8.0 PPG | 7.0 FGA | 42.9% FG%
The reason I bring up those small-sample results — which you’re probably well aware of if you’ve been following this piece over the past couple of months — is that they perfectly fall in line with the broader tendency of him inexplicably morphing into Run-of-the-Millsap outside of Denver this season:
- Home: 14.7 PPG | 10.0 FGA | 53.1% FG% (36 G)
- Road: 10.4 PPG | 9.0 FGA | 43.0% FG% (34 G)
The Spurs want Millsap to shoot, but he knows that and generally won’t force the issue.
Smart money is on this game being a defensive struggle (as postseason games tend to be late in the series), and our props tool rates this as a 10 out of 10 — that’s a 59%/39%/2% win/loss/push rate this season — with a 28% cushion between the projected and implied total.
Millsap has finished south of 12 points in 59% of his road starts this season, so the under should have value down to 11.5 (-145).
Spurs PG Derrick White
THE PICK: Over 3.5 Rebounds (-140)
White is coming off a two-rebound game, but his 21.6 minutes played in that contest is an outlier. The rookie guard averaged 4.1 rebounds in 27.1 minutes a game since the All-Star break, but our NBA Player Models have him projected for 32 minutes as the Spurs look to send the series back to Denver for Game 7.
He’s also seen a 10% increase in rebounding opportunities in this series compared to the regular season, according to NBA Stats.
White has come down with at least four boards in 3-of-5 games in the series and 17-of-27 (63%) since the All-Star break, so the over should have value up to -170.
This is another 10-rated prop, and the difference between the projected and implied total is 26%.
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me on there if you aren’t already.