Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s six games:
- New Orleans Pelicans at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
- Milwaukee Bucks at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies: 8 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Pelicans F Brandon Ingram
THE PICK: Over 21.5 points (-114)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
A blow to the head is the only thing that has stopped Ingram this season. He left his last game after just 13.2 minutes with a possible concussion, but he is not on the injury report today.
He should be a full go in what is expected to be a high-scoring affair vs. the Brooklyn Nets. The total on this game currently sits at 238.5, and both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace.
Ingram has been a scoring machine when he’s been on the floor this season. He’s averaging 23.5 points per game, but that number is clearly impacted by just seven points in his last contest. He had scored at least 22 points in each of the five previous games. He’s currently averaging a career-high 5.3 3-point attempts per game, and he leads the Pelicans with a usage rate of 27.9%.
I think this is an excellent opportunity to buy low on Ingram in an elite game environment. I would play the over up to -140.
Bucks F Giannis Antetokounmpo
THE PICK: Over 13.5 rebounds (+128)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
The number is extremely high, particularly for someone who isn’t a center. That said, Giannis has been absolutely dominant on the glass this season. He’s posted a career-high 21.2% rebound rate, resulting in an average of 15.3 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Overall, he’s grabbed at least 14 rebounds in four of his first six games, and he’s hit the over on his current rebound prop in each game where he’s played at least 30 minutes.
He’s in a nice spot today vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves. They’ve played at the second-fastest pace this season, and they’ll also be without their best rebounder in Karl-Anthony Towns. Their rebound rate drops to just 49.1% with Towns off the court this season, which would rank just 19th in the league.
This line seems incorrectly priced, so I love the idea of grabbing it a better than even money. I would still be willing to play it up to -110.
Grizzlies PG Ja Morant
THE PICK: Over 5.5 assists (-134)[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Morant has been solid to start his rookie year, averaging 18.8 points and 5.4 assists in just 28.0 minutes per game. His playing time is also trending in the right direction. He’s logged at least 28.3 minutes in three of his past four games, and he’s handed out at least seven assists in two of his past three contests.
The Grizzlies will be slightly shorthanded today without Grayson Allen and possibly Jaren Jackson Jr., so Morant could see a few additional minutes in today’s contest as well.
He’s in one of the best spots possible today vs. the Houston Rockets. The Rockets rank first in pace and dead-last in defensive efficiency this season, which is an excellent formula for scoring a bunch of points.
Morant leads the team in assist rate, so more points scored should lead to more assists for him. Memphis is currently implied for 112.25 points, which represents a large increase from their season average of 106.6.
This is an excellent combination of matchup and situation for Morant, so I’d be willing to play the over on his assist prop up to -150.
