NBA Betting Picks: Our Experts’ 4 Favorite Bets for Monday, Including Pelicans-Nets

NBA Betting Picks: Our Experts’ 4 Favorite Bets for Monday, Including Pelicans-Nets article feature image

Photo credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyrie Irving

  • Below, our staff details their four favorite bets of the night, including picks on Rockets-Grizzlies and Pelicans-Nets.

Tonight’s NBA schedule features six games with injuries and suspensions to a variety of star players.

That’s providing some betting value on today’s slate, and our experts are here to detail their favorite bets.

Odds as of Monday at 4:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Wob: Pelicans at Nets

  • Spread: Nets -3.5
  • Total: 238.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

The seventh-fastest team in the league that currently carries the second-worst Defensive Rating, the Pelicans, visits the eight-fastest team in the league that ranks 20th in Defensive Rating.

Imagine if NBA Jam had 12-minute quarters. What would the score be? That’s what you’re betting on here. These teams are going to run, run, run, run some more and maybe decide to play defense at some point. Simply too many possessions to hang a number under 240 here.

The PICK: Over 238.5

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

Brandon Anderson: Pelicans at Nets

  • Spread: Nets -3.5
  • Total: 238.5
  • Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

Kyrie Irving is off to an MVP-type start to the season. Through six games, he is averaging 30.5 points, 7.5 assists and 6.5 rebounds a game. All three of those numbers would be career-highs, and they’ll no doubt come back to earth a bit, soon enough.

The biggest outlier right now is that rebounding number. Irving averaged 3.4 boards a game his whole career before boosting that to 5.0 last year. Now he’s rebounding more than ever with his defensive rebounding percentage over 17%, almost double his career average. Like Russell Westbrook, the Nets appear to be funneling some of these boards to Kyrie to get him out running and quicken their pace.

Irving has at least seven rebounds in four of six Nets games. Our Player Prop tool projects 6.2 boards for Irving, and you’re actually getting juice for now at +120, so it’s a pretty enticing play.

The PICK: Kyrie Irving over 5.5 rebounds

Bryan Mears: Pistons at Wizards

  • Spread: Wizards -3.5
  • Total: 224.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: League Pass

Update: I no longer like the Pistons-Wizards under with Isaiah Thomas reportedly starting and getting heavier minutes for the Wizards.

I haven’t made this bet yet, as I’m hoping it’ll get back to 225. As of Monday afternoon, 59% of the bets are on the over, which has gotten 62% of the money. It’s sitting at 224.5, and I’ll wait to see if the public money will push it back up at all.

The Pistons are likely down a few point guards today: Derrick Rose has already been ruled out with a hamstring injury, and Tim Frazier (shoulder) is doubtful. Bruce Brown and Luke Kennard are projected to start at the guard spots, but without Rose, Frazier and Blake Griffin, they’ll be hurting for playmaking.

I think this line is potentially undervaluing the effect of Rose, who has been nothing short of amazing this season. He’s one of the early favorites for Sixth Man of the Year certainly.

It’s a small sample size, but his splits are pronounced: With him off the floor this season, the Pistons have been a stupid 19.7 points per 100 possessions worse on offense. Defensively, they’ve been worse, too, but I’m hesitant to lay a lot of blame on Rose for that. I think he’s a much more impactful player offensively, so I’m weighting that part of the splits more.

Pace-wise, Rose is also important. Per NBAwowy, the Pistons have played at a 103.2 pace (would rank league-average) with him on the court vs. a 97.5 mark (easily last in the league) with him off.

I think the market is getting hyper-efficient in measuring player value to the spread, but I’m not sure we’re all the way there yet in terms of value to the over/under. Without Rose and Frazier, the Pistons are likely to be much worse offensively and slow it down, too.

The Pistons already get out in transition the least of any team this year. The Wizards are 22nd in transition frequency despite having the third-highest pace in the league. Part of that is their opponents so far, but they also have weird splits when they push the ball.

Per, the Wizards have averaged 13.81 seconds per possession — eighth-fastest in the league. A good chunk of that, however, is off made field goals. And somehow they’ve actually been more efficient off made field goals than missed ones, which is an odd split and one I don’t see continuing long-term. It should be harder to score against a set defense than a scrambling one.

All said, I like the value on the under here and will try to grab it at its highest point.

The PICK: Under 224.5 or better

[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]

John Ewing: Rockets at Grizzlies

  • Spread: Rockets -5.5
  • Total: 230
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: League Pass

Russell Westbrook will not play in Monday’s game for the Rockets. Jaren Jackson Jr., the Grizzlies’ second-leading scorer, is out as well. The loss of these offensive weapons has impacted the total.

Oddsmakers opened the over/under at 235, and it has been bet down to 230. This is not an overreaction by the public, either. Sharp money is on tonight’s under. At the time of writing, 64% of tickets and 79% of dollars have been placed on the under.

When there is a larger percentage of dollars than tickets on a game, this is an indication of professional action. Since we began tracking dollar percentages in 2015, it has been profitable to bet unders when there is a greater percentage of dollars than tickets on the game and the total has decreased by two or more points.

Not only does recent history suggest there is still value on the under despite the line movement, but Justin Phan, one of our NBA experts, has also played the under tonight.

The PICK: Under 230

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