The San Antonio Spurs are set to visit the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of the Western Conference finals on Monday. The top two seeds had a lopsided regular-season series, but the postseason could be different in the third round of the playoffs. Point total player props could be especially interesting with these two defensive powerhouses facing off.
We have you covered with a pair of prop predictions for the matchup, including picks for Stephon Castle and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Continue below for our NBA points props for Monday, May 18.
NBA Points Props for Spurs vs Thunder Game 1
- Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points (-109)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 Points (-119)
Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points
This year's most anticipated Western Conference matchup is finally here. The reigning champions are favored to take Game 1 in the Western Conference semifinals on Monday. However, the Spurs won four of their five head-to-head meetings in 2025-26. Victor Wembanyama wasn't San Antonio's top offensive option in those contests.
Stephon Castle paced San Antonio with a team-high 19.8 points per game against OKC during the regular season and leads the Spurs in total points this postseason. The two-way guard has been a steady force on offense and is averaging 19.9 points per game in his first-ever playoff run.
Castle put up more shots per game (13.2) than any other Spur during the regular season and boasted elite shooting splits against one of the league's best defenses. He shot 54.5% from the field and 42.9% from deep against OKC ahead of the playoffs this year. His numbers through two playoff series aren't too far off from that.
Castle is shooting 49.0% from the field and 44.0% from distance through his first 11 postseason appearances. Only Wembanyama can match his team-high mark of 5.8 free throw attempts per game this postseason. Castle's consistency and aggression will likely make him a crucial part of San Antonio's game plan. His experience taking control against the Thunder is a bonus.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 16.5 Points (-109, DraftKings)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 Points
San Antonio looked like the better team in regular-season matchups, but the league's second-leading scorer posted 29.5 points per game against the Spurs. His offensive excellence has remained one of the Thunder's strongest weapons en route to the Western Conference semifinals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads all players with 29.1 points per game this postseason, but he did average just 24.5 points per game against the Lakers in the second round. Now he'll face a Spurs defense that's been extremely difficult to generate quality looks against.
Opposing offenses are shooting a league-low 40.5% from the field against the Spurs this postseason. While SGA excels at drawing contact and getting to the line, the Spurs gave up the second-fewest free throw attempts per game (20.8) during the regular season.
SGA shot an abysmal 19.0% from deep against San Antonio during the regular season, and his average of 9.0 free throw attempts per game dropped to 7.5 through five meetings with the Spurs. The reigning MVP can assert his will on offense, but the Spurs have the personnel to make it challenging for him to reach 30 points.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 Points (-119, DraftKings)
