The NBA regular season is back in action with a solid 8-game slate on Thursday night. So, I've locked in picks for four of tonight's contests, including bets for Hornets vs Magic, Warriors vs Mavericks, Lakers vs Clippers, and more.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Thursday, January 22.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Thursday, January 22
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Hornets vs. Magic
The Hornets are 7-2 ATS this season on rest disadvantage and 5-4 SU, 8-1 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
A fascinating stat: the Hornets are a dominant rebounding team, 4th in second-chance points per game and 10th in lowest second-chance points allowed. They absolutely crush the glass.
Orlando’s been good against good offensive rebound teams this season, but Charlotte’s offensive floor is so much higher than Orlando’s.
The Magic are 8-11 ATS this season without Jalen Suggs, and this is their first game back from the international set in Europe.
Teams are stabilized by routine, and the Magic had theirs deeply interrupted. I’ll play Charlotte to both cover and win outright here.
Pick: Hornets +7.5 / Hornets ML (+230)
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Warriors vs. Mavericks
I understand the idea that the Warriors will bounce back after the emotional letdown without Jimmy Butler.
But to counter that idea, teams typically respond in the first game without a star player. It’s a rally around the troops kind of moment, and the Warriors instead laid down and got run over by the Raptors. That’s concerning.
Meanwhile, the Mavericks cover, and win, these exact type of games.
- The Mavericks are 10-4 ATS this season as home 'dogs, and 8-2 ATS as a home 'dog against teams over .500.
- The Mavericks are 11-4 as more than a possession 'dog against teams over .500, regardless of location.
Dallas, very simply, covers against good teams. The Mavericks are probably a definably worse team than their record shows because they keep beating teams who are clearly better than them.
But that’s their win profile: compete against objectively good teams, get crushed by everyone else — and the Warriors are still a good team, with Steph Curry and Draymond Green still on the floor.
Oh, and on top of it, the Warriors struggle in this spot. They are 3-5 ATS as road favorites against teams under .500.
It’s a perfect storm, and I’m betting the Warriors do not rally themselves after the Jimmy Butler injury. I think it is too obvious to this team that without a saving grace trade, the season is over.
Pick: Mavericks +5.5
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Spurs vs. Jazz
The trends, they do love the Over:
- The Jazz are the No. 1 Over team this season at home. The Jazz do not play any defense, whatsoever, on any level.
- The Spurs are an Under team at 27-18 this season, going Under by 3.6 points per game.
- However, when the Jazz play Under teams this season, the Over is 14-5, and a shocking 8-1 at home.
- When the opponent is coming off a loss, trying to get right like the Spurs are, the Over in Jazz games is 14-5.
I project this total at 247, which is 10 full points above the number. I think Utah’s defense is bad enough, and their offense good enough, to go Over the number.
The previous matchup between these teams went Under by 4.5 points, but that was in San Antonio.
Pick: Over 237.5 (-110)
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Lakers vs. Clippers
Kawhi Leonard is questionable with a knee contusion, and if he’s out, this number likely swings. But if he plays, you can get a better Lakers number.
I have no reason why the Clippers can be power-rated above the Lakers. I get it, the Clippers have played great for the past month, and the Lakers have played terribly before Tuesday’s win against Denver.
But the Lakers have been the better team all season by a wide margin.
The Lakers’ offense, even in the past two weeks, is better than the Clippers’ the last two weeks. I’ll grant the defensive problems; the Clippers are SEVEN points better defensively per Cleaning The Glass the last two weeks.
The Lakers are 6-5 as road 'dogs this season, the Clippers 5-9 ATS as home favorites, but have won and covered in four of their last five in that spot.
I don’t mind making big adjustments given where the two teams are at right now in the season, just not to this degree. I make this spread Lakers -2.5, and will back Luka and LeBron to win the Battle of LA tonight.
Pick: Lakers +1.5 (-115)
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