We have an excellent slate of NBA games in front of us tonight, and I've been crunching the numbers to find the best spots on the board. From sides and totals to specific matchup angles, I've locked in my favorite plays for the evening.
Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Monday, November 2.
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NBA Predictions for Monday, November 2
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Thunder vs. Cavaliers
This play correlates with the overarching idea that the market is struggling to accurately price the Thunder amidst their current injury crisis.
You have to ask yourself: what is the baseline rating for the Cavaliers, and what is the baseline rating for a fully healthy Thunder team?
My model indicates that a fully healthy OKC team is significantly better than Cleveland. Even when you account for the severe compounding cluster injuries—taking out Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Cason Wallace—the math simply doesn't stretch this far.
I am not denying that those are crucial, multifaceted losses, but the Thunder's baseline is so high that they have a massive cushion.
Even entirely depleted, the Thunder still possess the number one defense in the NBA. They haven't been completely crushed defensively, and Mark Daigneault is a top tier coach who will figure out the offense.
I make this game much closer to a true pick'em — and if the line was a pick'em, I might lean slightly toward the Cavs, but catching 4.5 points offers at least two to two-and-a-half points of pure numerical value.
Pick: Thunder +4.5
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Bucks vs. Timberwolves
My personal power ratings actually make this spread Timberwolves -13.5, which gives us more than two full points of pure numerical value on the board.
The betting market freaked out and overreacted when Anthony Edwards went down with an injury.
Yes, the Warriors showed up and beat the snot out of them in his absence, but the market viewed that as a condemnation of the Wolves without Ant.
In reality, the Warriors are legitimately a top-10 schedule-adjusted team on both offense and defense right now, and they are leading the league in offensive rebound rate.
Steve Kerr is operating like an absolute wizard and warlock on the sidelines, so that single loss was not as bad as it initially seemed.
Minnesota quickly bounced back and handled their business against the Clippers in Cup play, proving they still maintain a high baseline level of execution.
On the other side of the floor, the Bucks are genuinely dreadful. They are one of the absolute worst non-Kings teams in the league right now.
The market has incorrectly downgraded Minnesota based on one tough loss to a surprisingly solid Golden State squad.
I will gladly lay the 10.5 points against a terrible Milwaukee team.
Pick: Timberwolves -10.5
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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets
I am going right back to a golden oldie tonight and targeting the corner threes angle against the Nuggets.
There is a fundamental issue with Denver's defensive scheme that we have successfully exploited over the last two seasons in both the regular season and the playoffs.
The Nuggets run a coverage where they bring a third defender early to the high nail to help on pick-and-roll and dribble hand-off actions. Because that strong-side defender commits so early, the weak-side rotation has to proactively shade over, leaving the far corner exposed.
When the ball reverses to that weak side, it creates a massive opening, and spoiler alert: Nikola Jokic is simply not going to make that frantic closeout to the corner; he is just going to ask why he should even bother.
Because of this structural flaw, the Nuggets surrender 13.2 corner three-point attempts per game, which is actually the third-most in the NBA despite them playing at a really slow pace.
While the Nuggets are currently holding opponents to just 30 percent shooting from those spots, I can guarantee you that is pure shot variance that will inevitably regress.
This brings us to Toumani Camara, who operates as the Blazers' primary corner shooter. He is currently averaging 3.2 corner three attempts per game—along with 4.6 above the break—and shooting a blistering 50 percent on those corner looks.
Camara has already cashed this over in his last two matchups against Denver, and the environment is aligned for him to get plenty of clean looks once again tonight.
Pick: Toumani Camara Over 2.5 Three-Pointers Made
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