We have another excellent slate on tap in the NBA today, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player props for Monday, November 2.
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NBA Player Props for Monday, November 2
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Thunder vs. Cavaliers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Assists (-123)
This is a fascinating trend to monitor, because you would naturally assume that with an apocalyptic injury report wiping out half of the Thunder's rotation, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would be forced to take on massive playmaking responsibilities.
However, SGA hasn't recorded more than five assists in a single game all season. Even in the two games completely decimated by these recent injuries, he posted just three and two assists, respectively.
The reality is that Gilgeous-Alexander is an elite scorer, but he is not a high-end facilitator who consistently makes complex, second-level reads to manipulate defenses.
The way Oklahoma City is going to have to survive offensively without its stars is not by having SGA magically morph into a 10-assist point guard; it will be by finding ways to get guys like Jared McCain and Ajay Mitchell clean looks within the flow of the offense.
Because he is the sole remaining offensive engine, SGA is going to see a high volume of defensive blitzes. When a defense constantly blitzes the primary initiator, it forces the ball out of his hands early, meaning the eventual assist typically comes from the secondary connector rather than SGA himself.
He hasn't cleared this number in any scenario this year, and I don't expect him to start against a solid Cavaliers defense.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 5.5 Assists (-123)Â
Wizards vs. Magic
Franz Wagner Over 6.5 Assists (+108)
Magic HC Sean Sweeney's move to make Point-Franz a thing this season has been paying out big assist dividends, especially in the absence of Paolo Banchero (and Jalen Suggs).
In four games without Banchero, Franz Wagner has posted 9+ assists in three of the games (9.25 per game), including 23 assists over his last two games.
Wagner ranks 11th in the NBA in potential assists per game and sixth over these last four games.
Pick: Franz Wagner Over 6.5 Assists (+108)Â
Bucks vs. Timberwolves
Ryan Rollins Over 12.5 Points (-115)
By Nick Galaida
Ryan Rollins is averaging only 11.2 points per game this season, but he’s attempted at least 11 shots in all but one of Milwaukee’s first six games.
The primary issue for Rollins has been efficiency – he’s shooting only 34.2% from the field and 27.3% from long range. He’s a career 46.7% from the field and 40.1% from 3-point range.
Assuming Rollins continues to see similar shooting volume, we should see his points per game increase as he starts to experience some positive shooting regression.
Pick: Ryan Rollins Over 13.5 Points (-115)Â
Pelicans vs. Grizzlies
Cam Boozer Over 8.5 Rebounds (-146)
By Joe Dellera
Cam Boozer has been phenomenal to start his professional career with the Grizzlies, firmly establishing himself at No. 1 on the Rookie Ladder. He is currently averaging 17.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists in roughly 30 minutes a night.
Through his first three games, he racked up an absurd 48 points and 35 rebounds, a statistical threshold only Shaquille O'Neal had ever reached as a rookie. He then immediately followed that up by posting a triple-double and a career-high 27 points against the Kings.
I firmly believe the betting market is over-indexing on Zach Edey's presence in this frontcourt. Edey is undeniably a great rebounder, but his minutes are capped around 20 a night, meaning the vast majority of the available boards are falling right into Boozer's lap.
The game environment is also perfect for this prop. New Orleans plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, guaranteeing a massive number of possessions and shot attempts.
The Pelicans are also very thin at the center position right now with Yves Missi sidelined, removing a significant source of interior resistance.
Even in a massive 31-point blowout over Sacramento where his minutes were limited to just 26, Boozer still easily pulled down nine rebounds.
I'll back Boozer to grab over 8.5 rebounds.
Pick: Cam Boozer Over 8.5 Rebounds (-146)Â
Celtics vs. Rockets
Kevin Durant Over 21.5 Points (-111)
By Nick Galaida
Kevin Durant is averaging 22 points per game this season, but that number would likely be even higher if Houston wasn’t blowing teams out on such a regular basis.
Durant scored only 14 points against the Thunder this past Saturday, but Houston won that game by 21 points, which limited Durant to only 27 minutes. Durant scored only 18 points in a 32-point victory over the Bucks last Wednesday.
In games decided by 10 points or fewer this season, Durant is averaging 23 points per game, having cleared this number in three of four such games.
Boston isn’t particularly great at defending the midrange, which is an area of the floor Durant loves to attack.
This is a playable number for one of the league’s most efficient scorers.
Pick: Kevin Durant Over 21.5 Points (-111)Â
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets
Nikola Jokic Over 11.5 Rebounds (-144)
By Joe Dellera
If you look at Nikola Jokic's rebounding logs to start the season, the numbers are all over the place: 7, 15, 7, 13, and 7.
That high level of variance is exactly why I love this play today. The number is currently sitting at a manageable 11.5 in a matchup that perfectly suits him, so I am more than willing to pay a little bit of juice to lock it in.
While Portland is a solid rebounding team overall, they haven't been particularly great at keeping opposing centers off the glass.
More importantly for Jokic, guys like Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams are traditional, paint-bound bigs. They aren't going to drag Jokic out to the perimeter to defend in space; he can stay home, body up in the paint, and clean the defensive glass.
Jokic crushed this specific matchup last season, posting 14, 9, 14, and 14 rebounds against the Blazers.
With Ja Morant currently sidelined, the Portland offense gets significantly uglier and less efficient — and more missed shots naturally equal more defensive rebounding opportunities for Nikola. Give me over 11.5 rebounds.
