We have an excellent NBA Cup slate on tap today — and our NBA betting expert Prop Bomb has locked in his top player prop bet for tonight's matchup between the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers.
Let's dive into our NBA prop bet for Jaylen Brown in 76ers vs. Cavaliers on Friday, November 6.
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NBA Prop Bet for Friday, November 6
Two weeks ago, Cleveland had the Sixers down 29 late in the second quarter, and Jaylen Brown looked like the reason why — he had four points at the half, pulling up the exact shot the Cavs wanted him taking, until adjustments came. Then he took six of his 12 second-half shots at the rim, scored 17 after the break, and Philly won the second half by 32.
In tonight’s rematch, that’s the version I’m expecting to happen early, and I don’t book it. As a known dribble penetrator, when Brown puts his head down against this team, the points are there.
PropsMadness grades Cleveland 27th against isolation, 27th in transition and 24th at the rim, and every high-usage wing to face them this season has generated at least 23 expected points.
The knock on Brown in Philly is the crowded floor, and it’s fair. He doesn’t do much when Embiid, Maxey and LeBron are all out there with him. The thing is, that group only shares 10 to 20 minutes a night.
The rest of the time, Brown is the guy, and with Embiid sitting, he’s scoring 24.4 per 36. In the five games all four have played, he’s put up 19, 21, 20, 25 and 30.
Tonight hands him more of those minutes. Adem Bona is doubtful, so Philly goes small when Embiid rests. Jaylon Tyson, who guarded Brown for 15 possessions in October, is out for Cleveland, so he’ll look to pick on James Harden when he gets his switches — and it’s an NBA Cup group game with point differential in play, so nobody’s coasting.
My PropBomb Expected Stats model has him at 21.6 expected points a night, comfortably over this number, and his role tonight projects closer to 23.2 points. Let’s just hope he plays as he did in the second half last time, but earlier!
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 19.5 Points (-122) — DraftKings
If you want more picks for this game, read our full 76ers vs Cavaliers betting preview!
