We have an excellent NBA slate on tap today — and our NBA betting expert Prop Bomb has locked in his top player prop bet for tonight's matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Portland Trail Blazers.
Let's dive into our NBA prop bet for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in Thunder vs. Blazers on Tuesday, November 10.
NBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, November 10
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The Oklahoma City Thunder open a two-game set in Portland tonight. The Blazers are 6-3, even without Ja Morant, and OKC is favored by just 2.5 points on the road.
Oklahoma City has rolled to an 8-2 start despite a long injury list, and lately it hasn’t needed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to carry the whole offense to win games.
That changes tonight. With Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams both sidelined, the offense runs through Shai, and in 248 minutes without that duo this season, he’s averaging 35.4 points per 36 minutes. He also draws a Portland defense built to give him exactly what he wants, and I’m taking the over on his points total.
The number is lower than it should be because of how the Thunder’s last two games went. They won by 31 and 39, Shai sat the entire fourth quarter of both and played under 30 minutes each night. He still scored 28 and 30.
When OKC has been in a competitive game this season, he has logged 35 to 39 minutes, and with a spread this tight, I expect that full workload tonight.
SGA is at his best coming off a screen, getting to his spots in the midrange and turning drives into trips to the free-throw line. Thirteen of his 22 shots (66%) at Memphis came from the midrange.
That’s exactly where Portland is weakest. The Blazers rank 28th defending the midrange, 28th against the pick-and-roll ball handler and 27th in free throws allowed per NBAStats.
Donovan Clingan plays deep drop coverage on nearly every screen, which leaves the elbow pull-up open — and don’t expect Portland to send help.
The Blazers rank top three against spot-ups and above-the-break threes because they stay home on shooters, so it’s one defender chasing Shai over the screen with a big sitting back. When he gets downhill, they foul.
Lead creators have taken advantage. Luka Doncic (53 points), Jamal Murray (35) and Devin Booker (33) all went off against this defense, and all three lived at the line.
Toumani Camara will draw the individual assignment, as he did in all four meetings last season. Shai still scored 35, 37, 26 and 30, and the 37 and 30 came in blowouts where he played about 30 minutes.
Last November in this building, with Holmgren out and the game decided by two points, he finished with 35 on 26 shots and 13 free-throw attempts.
At roughly 36 minutes and his current pace without Holmgren and Williams, I’m projecting Shai around 34.1 points, and would play this up to -130.
