The Oklahoma City Thunder (8-2) and Portland Trail Blazers (6-3) will clash in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 11:00 p.m. ET from the Moda Center in Portland, Oregon. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Thunder are 1.5-point favorites over the Blazers on the spread, with the over/under set at 226.5 total points. Oklahoma City is a -130 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Portland is a +110 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Thunder vs. Trail Blazers predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, November 10.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers Prediction
- Thunder vs Trail Blazers pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points
My Thunder vs. Blazers best bet is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score over 31.5 points, with the best price currently available at DraftKings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Thunder vs Trail Blazers Odds
- Thunder vs Trail Blazers spread: Thunder -1.5 (-114), Trail Blazers +1.5 (-106)
- Thunder vs Trail Blazers over/under: 226.5 (-107o / -113u)
- Thunder vs Trail Blazers moneyline: Thunder -130, Trail Blazers +110
Thunder vs Trail Blazers NBA Preview
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder possess the absolute master of the mid-range in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
While SGA has technically stayed under his points line in his last two games, he is still quietly averaging nearly 30 points per night.
More importantly, when SGA eclipses his total, he usually destroys it. In the games he has gone over this season, he dropped 42 and 43 points against Cleveland, 34 against the Clippers, and 34 against the Spurs.
The common denominator among all those opponents is that they structurally concede mid-range jumpers.
While SGA's free-throw rate has notably dipped this season compared to previous years, his elite shot creation in the intermediate zones makes him relatively immune to strong rim protection.
Portland Trail Blazers Betting Preview
The Portland Trail Blazers are practically begging for a player like Gilgeous-Alexander to dissect them. Portland's defensive scheme relies heavily on drop coverage, particularly when rookie Donovan Clingan is on the floor.
Clingan is a fantastic rim protector, but anchoring him in the paint naturally surrenders wide-open real estate in the mid-range.
We are also seeing a gradual rotational shift from Portland where Robert Williams' minutes are trending down while Clingan's minutes are ticking up, which makes it even more likely the Blazers stay in that drop scheme for most of the game.
To make matters worse, the Blazers foul at a very high rate, which provides SGA with a secondary avenue to manufacture easy points if his jumper goes cold.
Thunder vs Trail Blazers Pick, Betting Analysis
This is a tactical matchup play. I honestly don't care who is on the floor for Portland, but the heavy dosage of Donovan Clingan in drop coverage should completely unlock the mid-range for SGA in this game.
The Trail Blazers' defensive philosophy invites the exact shot profile that Gilgeous-Alexander executes better than anyone else on the planet.
I would not be shocked to see SGA go off for 40 points tonight against a Portland defense that refuses to step up and challenge shooters at the elbows.
I'll back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to score over 31.5 points here.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points
