The Miami Heat (3-5) and Utah Jazz (1-7) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The game will broadcast live on NBA League Pass.
The Heat are 9.5-point favorites over the Jazz on the spread, with the over/under set at 227.5 total points. The Heat are 78¢ moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Jazz are listed as 23¢ underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Heat vs. Jazz predictions and NBA picks for Tuesday, November 10.
Heat vs Jazz Prediction
- Heat vs Jazz pick: Over 227.5
My Heat vs. Jazz prediction is the total to go over 227.5 points, with the best price currently available at Kalshi. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Heat vs Jazz Odds
Heat vs Jazz NBA Preview
Miami Heat Preview
The Miami Heat are traveling to Salt Lake City to face a Utah Jazz team that is bogged down by injuries right now.
While Miami's offense hasn't exactly been a juggernaut this season, they are walking into a matchup where the opposing defense is missing vital pieces.
However, the betting market has overreacted to the injury report on the Utah side, dragging this total down significantly.
Even with the expected absences for the Jazz, the pace and the sheer volume of three-point attempts in this game should provide more than enough offense for this total to go over the number.
Utah Jazz Preview
The Jazz are dealing with two key injuries: Keyonte George is officially out with an ankle injury, and Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable with a wrist issue.
Markkanen played through the wrist injury in his previous game — wincing throughout the night but still somehow managing to knock down eight three-pointers –so there is a chance that he suits up again tonight.
However, the market is pricing this total as if Markkanen is definitively ruled out — and either way, I simply refuse to believe that the combination of George and Markkanen is worth a full 10-point downgrade to the total. Even without them, the Jazz still launch a ton of threes.
Kyle Filipowski is also seeing a significant uptick in minutes for Utah lately; he is a capable floor spacer and underrated passer who keeps the offense flowing.
Heat vs Jazz Pick, Analysis
If I price this game strictly using this year's statistical data and manually remove both Keyonte George and Lauri Markkanen from the equation, my model still projects this total way over the number at 237.5.
The market adjustment has gone way too far. I'm simply not willing to concede that Utah's injuries strip 10 full points of expected scoring value off the board.
Filipowski helps space the floor for a Jazz team that aggressively hunts the three-ball, and there is still a chance that Markkanen plays.
I expect this total to fly over 227.5 points tonight.
Pick: Over 227.5
