The NBA grind continues tonight, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite spreads, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, picks, and predictions for Tuesday, November 10.
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NBA Best Bets for Tuesday, November 10
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 9 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. 76ers
Celtics 1H ML / 76ers Full Game ML
I am reaching into the bag for an old Buckets classic tonight: taking one team in the first half and the other for the full game.
When I run my numbers, the raw data tells me to bet the Celtics, but the matchup metrics scream to back the Sixers, so I am sliding right into the middle to capture both distinct advantages.
Boston has been a phenomenal starting team this season, boasting a 7-3 record against the spread in the first half. Meanwhile, the Sixers are just 5-6 ATS in the opening two quarters, which should give Boston a chance to to jump out to an early lead.
However, as the game grinds down, the matchup shifts in Philadelphia's favor. The Sixers currently rank in the top five in both half-court and perimeter defense, which is perfectly suited to slow Boston’s offense late in the game.
More importantly, Philadelphia has been absolutely lethal in crunch time, posting a perfect 8-0 straight-up record in clutch-game situations this year.
We know the Celtics have a tendency to blow leads, and in a game lined at just 1.5 points, I want the team that has proven they have the better closers.
Boston will probably win the opening sprint, but I trust Philly's late-game execution to steal the marathon.
Pick: Celtics First Half Moneyline / 76ers Full Game Moneyline (+485)
Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points & Assists
By Joe Dellera
While a lot of the public attention and narrative focus might be zeroing in on Jaylen Brown in a revenge spot tonight, I am looking in a different direction.
Tyrese Maxey has firmly established himself as the engine of this Philadelphia offense. He is currently averaging nearly 37 minutes per game, and that amount of playing time combined with his consistently high usage rate creates a high floor for his counting stats.
The volume is undeniable. Maxey is averaging a robust 32.5 Points and Assists (PA) on the year. More importantly, he has successfully cleared this 29.5 PA line in 9 of his 11 games so far this season.
Maxey has also historically had a lot of success scoring and distributing against this specific Boston defensive scheme. From a matchup perspective, the Celtics are generally solid at defending in transition, which is typically an area where Maxey thrives and does a lot of his damage.
However, Maxey has developed into a phenomenal spot-up shooter as well, meaning he doesn't need to rely solely on the fast break to rack up points. He can also dissect them in the half-court when the game slows down.
This line is simply too low. I fully expect Maxey to excel tonight and clear this 29.5 number.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points & Assists (-105)
Over 216.5
I am heading straight to the marquee matchup of the night—Jayson Tatum going to Jaylen Brown's new house for a housewarming party—and taking the Over 216.5 at at -115 juice.
People often ask me what my process is for finding an actionable edge, and it is always the same thing: I compare my personal ratings and pricing for the game, analyze what the market is doing directionally, and cross-reference the injury report.
This game emphatically checks all of those boxes.
I personally price this game at 219.5, and the broader market has already indicated sharp agreement, pushing this total up from 215.5 to 217.5 at various books.
Securing 216.5 should give us fantastic closing line value.
Most importantly, the injury report is clean for this game. Over the last few nights, I have been burned by random injuries catching me out of left field—like Devin Vassell for the Spurs or Domantas Sabonis for the Kings—getting me steamed against in the market — but I am not concerned about that happening here.
Paul George is completely off the injury report, and Mitchell Robinson is off as well. Interestingly, Robinson has kind of been overtaken in the Celtics' rotation by Luka Garza, which inherently adds more spacing and perimeter shooting to the floor while weakening Boston's interior defense.
Robinson can still come in, battle Joel Embiid, and generate extra possessions and kick-out threes, but the overall environment points toward a high-scoring affair between two healthy offenses.
Pick: Over 216.5 (-105)
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Bucks vs. Knicks
Andre Drummond Over 6.5 Rebounds
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks host the Bucks tonight, and and I will be targeting Andre Drummond in a spot where all the situational factors and game scripts are aligning perfectly for the veteran big man.
First and foremost, this is a fantastic matchup against a lowly Bucks squad that has been an absolute joke on the glass this season.
Milwaukee currently plays at a very fast pace, which naturally creates a high volume of overall possessions. A faster pace inherently leads to more shots, more misses, and a wealth of extra rebounding opportunities.
Because of this tempo and their overall poor interior presence, the Bucks are currently allowing the second-most rebounds per game to their opponents — and Drummond will exploit that during his time on the floor.
Beyond the base matchup, we also have to monitor the injury report, which is setting up a favorable rotation script for New York's frontcourt. Josh Hart is currently listed as questionable again today.
When you factor in the schedule, this is the front end of a back-to-back set for the Knicks, with a much tougher divisional matchup looming tomorrow against the Cavaliers. Because of that, I expect the Knicks to play it safe and sit Hart today with the intention of having him return tomorrow.
I already like this rebounding prop regardless of Hart's final status, but if he is officially ruled out, it naturally removes competition on the glass and opens up significantly more chances for Drummond.
We also have to factor in the expected game flow. The Knicks enter tonight's contest as massive 15.5-point favorites.
When New York handles its business and secures comfortable victories, Drummond's production spikes. In fact, Drummond has pulled down at least eight boards in all four of the Knicks' double-digit wins this season.
If this game turns into a lopsided affair as the heavy point spread implies, Drummond should see plenty of extended run to dominate the paint.
I’ll gladly back the big man to feast on the glass tonight. You can grab over 6.5 rebounds at +115 on DraftKings, but if you want to play it a bit safer, there is also some solid value on the 6+ alternative line at -138.
Pick: Andre Drummond Over 6.5 Rebounds (+115)
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Clippers vs. Suns
Suns -3.5
This is a brutal schedule spot for Phoenix—the Suns are on the second night of a back-to-back and playing their sixth game in nine days—but I am actively choosing to disregard that fatigue factor for this specific team.
Under head coach Jordan Ott, Phoenix has been the one team across the entire league that has consistently and vastly overperformed in back-to-back situations. Their success is driven by a gritty, do-it-all team focus that allows them to push through heavy legs, particularly when playing on their home floor.
If we were not factoring in this horrific schedule spot, my numbers would price this game somewhere between Phoenix -5.5 and -6.
Because the market is applying a standard fatigue downgrade, I believe I am getting an unwarranted discount relative to this specific team's proven tendencies.
We actually saw this exact scenario play out earlier this season when the Magic came to Phoenix during a similarly dense stretch of games; I backed the Suns for this exact reason, and they came out and won by 20 points.
Standard NBA schedule mechanics say this is a Clippers spot, but Phoenix is the one team at home on a back-to-back that I simply do not apply those rules to.
I will take the discounted number and back the Suns to cover.
Pick: Suns -3.5 (-110)
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Heat vs. Jazz
Over 227.5
This play might feel a bit dangerous, but the betting market is overreacting to the Utah injury report in this spot, creating a real pricing discrepancy that we can exploit.
Keyonte George is officially out with an ankle injury, and Lauri Markkanen is listed as questionable with a wrist issue. The market is essentially pricing this game as if Markkanen is definitively ruled out, driving the total down significantly.
However, I simply do not believe the absence of those two players is worth a full 10-point downgrade to the total. If I price this game using strictly this year's statistical data—and manually remove both George and Markkanen from the equation—my model still projects this total way over the number at 237.5.
Even without their primary scorers, the Jazz are still taking quite a bit of threes and playing at a functional pace.
Kyle Filipowski has also been seeing a nice boost in playing time recently after dealing with early-season back issues. He is a capable floor spacer and an underrated passer who will keep the offense flowing efficiently.
There is also the lingering possibility that Markkanen actually plays; he played through this same wrist injury in his last game, and despite wincing, he still knocked down eight three-pointers.
This line is too low. I'll take the over.
Pick: Over 227.5 (-105)
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Magic vs. Kings
Magic Moneyline
I am taking a big, fat moneyline bet tonight on the Magic at -212. I know it’s not pretty, and it certainly isn't sexy, but sometimes you just have to pay the vig when the situational desperation is this glaring.
I don't know if I'll get pushback for laying this kind of price, but I am more than 68 percent confident that Orlando is going to win this basketball game.
The Magic entered the season as a perennial playoff contender with a win total hovering around 45, yet they have put themselves in a world of trouble by winning just two games to start the year.
The Magic have lost four straight, making this as much of a must-win game as you will find ten games into an NBA season. They simply cannot afford to lose to a Kings team that ranks 30th amongst the 30 NBA teams in power ratings with just one win on the year.
To make matters worse for the Kings, it looks like Domantas Sabonis is going to be out. He is dealing with soreness in the same knee that required season-ending surgery last year, and rumors suggest he hates playing with a cuff.
If Sabonis misses this game, you are going to get Dylan Cardwell starting, which is a huge blow to Sacramento's value over replacement (VORP).
The fair market value on a -5.5 point spread is roughly -235, so as long as you are getting a number south of that, laying the moneyline is a mathematically sound investment for a team that desperately needs a win.
Wendell Carter Jr. Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds
For my second bet in this matchup, I am looking at Wendell Carter Jr. to go Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds.
I absolutely love the way Carter is playing this year; he feels significantly more assertive, and in my view, he is playing harder than anyone else on the Orlando roster right now.
I fully expect the Magic to smash in this game, and this profiles perfectly as a Wendell Carter Jr. takeover spot.
If you look at his game logs, you really don't need a master's degree to figure out his production trends. When he goes up against elite bigs that can impact the game on both ends—like Karl-Anthony Towns or Anthony Davis—he gets worn out, falls into foul trouble, and struggles to produce.
However, when he goes up against teams that lack those skilled bigs on the interior, he absolutely feasts. He has already gone over this 22.5 line in five of his nine games this season, including cashing his PR prop in his last two outings.
Tonight, Sacramento has very little size to contend with him in the paint, a problem that will be amplified if Domantas Sabonis misses the game.
The Kings are already vulnerable when it comes to paint points allowed and rebound percentage, and Carter is built to exploit those weaknesses.
I debated playing his double-double prop, but isolating the combined points & rebounds is my favorite way to back a guy who should physically dominate the restricted area tonight.
Parlay: Magic Moneyline / Wendel Carter Jr. Over 22.5 Points & Rebounds (+154)
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Thunder vs. Trail Blazers
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has actually stayed under this line in his last two games, but he is still quietly averaging nearly 30 points per night, and this specific matchup is simply too good to ignore.
Shai is the undisputed master of the mid-range jumper, and the Trail Blazers consistently concede a high volume of looks from that area.
When you look at the games where SGA has cleared this total this season, he hasn't just barely sneaked over—he has obliterated the number, dropping 42 and 43 against Cleveland, 34 against the Clippers, and 34 against the Spurs.
The common denominator among all those opponents is that they structurally give up mid-range looks.
Portland's defense is predicated on drop coverage, particularly when Donovan Clingan is anchoring the paint.
Clingan is a tremendous defender, but sinking him deep into a drop opens up the intermediate zone for SGA to operate.
We are also seeing a clear rotational trend from Micah Nori with Robert Williams' minutes trending down while Clingan's are going up, likely forcing the Blazers to stay in drop coverage for longer stretches.
Not to mention, Portland tends to foul at a very high rate. While SGA's free-throw volume has dipped a bit this season compared to previous years, that lack of defensive discipline provides him with a secondary path to manufacture easy points.
This feels like a spot where we might see another 40-point game from the reigning MVP.
Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 31.5 Points (-120)
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