Wednesday’s Best NBA Prop Bets: Can Giannis Hand Out 5 Assists vs. Pistons?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo
- We've identified three NBA player prop bets providing value on Wednesday's 10-game slate.
- Find picks for Magic PG Markelle Fultz, Bucks SF Giannis Antetokounmpo and Blazers C Hassan Whiteside below.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 10 games:
- Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns: 7 p.m. ET
- Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons: 7 p.m. ET on TNT
- Sacramento Kings at Portland Trail Blazers: 10 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Magic PG Markelle Fultz
THE PICK: Over 3 Rebounds (-114)
Fultz has found new life with the Magic this season. He’s started each of the past 15 games, and his playing time has steadily increased over that span. He’s logged at least 28.4 minutes in six straight games, including a season-high 31.2 minutes in his last contest.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising that he’s been a productive rebounder. Fultz has averaged 4.9 rebounds per 36 minutes throughout his career, and he’s grabbed at least three boards in each of his past five games. He’s in a great spot for rebounding today vs. the Phoenix Suns, who rank just 29th in team rebound rate.
It’s hard to envision a scenario where Fultz can’t grab at least three boards in this contest. I’d play the over up to -150.
Bucks SF Giannis Antetokounmpo
THE PICK: Over 4.5 Assists (-167)
This prop really comes down to how much you think Giannis will play. He’s recorded just seven total assists over his past two games, but the Bucks have won those contests by an average of 41.5 points. Giannis averaged just 20.8 minutes in those outings, so it’s not surprising that he saw a decrease in production.
Today’s contest vs. the Pistons figures to be more competitive. The Bucks are on the road, which results in a spread of just 8.5 points. If this game stays competitive into the fourth quarter — and Giannis actually finds himself on the floor instead of on the bench — this line is simply not high enough. He’s on pace to post a new career-high in assist rate, and he’s averaging 6.5 assists per 36 minutes.
Betting on the Greek Freak to do things on a basketball is typically a pretty smart decision. This prop is already juiced up, but I think it holds value up to -180.
Blazers C Hassan Whiteside
THE PICK: Over 12.5 Rebounds (-114)
Whiteside has started the season off strong for the Trail Blazers. He’s averaging 12.4 rebounds per game, and he ranks third in the league in total rebound percentage. His minutes aren’t always the most consistent, but he has been playing a bunch recently. He played 30 minutes two games ago vs. the Thunder, and he’s projected for 29.2 minutes against the Kings.
If he does see that much playing time, he should have no problems crushing the Kings on the glass. They rank just 22nd in team rebound rate this season, and Whiteside averaged 21.5 rebounds per game vs. the Kings last year.
Whiteside has pulled down at least 13 boards in three straight games, and I see no reason why he can’t make it four in a row tonight. I like the over up to -140.