A second-round matchup between the Celtics and Knicks has been expected to happen for several weeks now. Tonight, it can become a reality if both teams close out their respective series.
Derrick White and Mikal Bridges are both usually major contributors, but they have not been particularly impactful in their series. However, their struggles may not prevent their teams from advancing.
Let's get into my NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Thursday, April 30.
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide: Tuesday, April 30
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NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Knicks vs. Hawks
The Angle: Brunson Helps Knicks Close Out Hawks
Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Bridges averaged 14.4 points per game in the regular season. He scored in double digits in Games 1 and 2, but he was held scoreless in Game 3. Over the last three games of this series, Bridges is averaging just five points per game and he has not been particularly impactful in other areas either.
He has posted two rebounds and two assists or fewer in all five games. He is averaging 1.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game in the series. As a result, he has recorded 13 PRA or fewer in each of the last four games while averaging 10 per game for the series. With just a 12.8% usage rate in the series, I expect that trend to continue.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
The Contrarian SGP: Bridges Struggles, Knicks Spread
Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
Jalen Brunson left Game 4 briefly before returning to the game. Although he played 34 minutes, he scored just 19 points. However, that is his only game under 25 points in the series. He showed no ill effects in Game 5 as he showed 39 points while handing out eight assists.
Brunson is averaging 28.2 points per game in the series and he trails only Cade Cunningham in total points in the playoffs. He has scored 25 points in nine of his last 14 games against the Hawks while averaging 27.8 points per game. With a 34.3% usage rate in the series, I don't see that trend ending anytime soon.
Pick: Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
New York Knicks -2.5
If you are a series bettor, tonight is a key one for you as it will determine if the Knicks or Hawks will cover the 1.5 series spread. I am going with the Knicks as they have won each of the last two games. In doing so, they may finally have a handle on CJ McCollum as they have limited him to 23 points over the last two games.
The Knicks now have a +11 net rating in the series. While the Hawks will put up a fight facing elimination at home, Brunson may just end their season. In nine Game 6s in his career, he is averaging 27.1 points and 4.9 assists while shooting 48.6% from the field.
The Knicks are also outrebounding the Hawks by eight per game in the series. It is not just Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson, as OG Anunoby and Josh Hart have been crashing the glass as well. At just -2.5, I like the Knicks to cover tonight and advance to the second round.
Pick: Knicks -2.5
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+329)
- Jalen Brunson 25+ Points
- Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- New York Knicks -2.5
Compounding Angle (+856)
- Jalen Brunson 30+ Points
- Mikal Bridges Under 13.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- New York Knicks -9.5
NBA Same Game Parlay Strategy Guide for Celtics vs 76ers
The Angle: Celtics Advance Despite White's Struggles
Derrick White Under 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Derrick White finished sixth in Defensive Player of the Year voting and the Celtics had a +11.2 net rating when he was on the floor in the regular season. Despite that, he posted the worst shooting season of his career, shooting 39.4% from the field and posting a career-low 52.9% true shooting percentage. Unfortunately for him, his slump has carried over into the playoffs.
White is shooting 29.8% from the field and 21.2% from the field in this series after flirting with 50/40/90 shooting splits during Boston's last three postseason runs. He is averaging 8.2 points and he has scored 11 points or less in each of the first five games.
White is also Boston's point guard, but Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the team's primary initiators and dominate the ball. White has seen a 15% usage rate in this series and is averaging just 5.6 potential assists per game in the series. He has recorded three assists or fewer in each of the last four games. He is averaging 3.4 assists per game to go along with 3.2 rebounds.
When you combine that with his scoring, White is averaging 14.8 PRA in the series, well below tonight's line. Joe Mazzulla is not gonna bench him, but Boston has just a +2.1 net rating in 174 minutes with him on the floor and a +29.3 net rating in 66 minutes with him on the bench. However, if his shooting struggles continue, he will stay under his PRA line again.
Pick: Derrick White Under 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
Joel Embiid 25+ Points
Joel Embiid returned in Game 4 and scored 26 points in 34 minutes. While it mattered little on the scoreboard, Game 5 proved to be different. He scored 33 points on 12-of-23 shooting while the 76ers pulled the 113-97 upset victory on the road. He did what he has done best in getting to the free-throw line, attempting 19 free throws in the last two games.
He has averaged 29.5 points despite getting just one of his 11 3-point attempts to fall. However, he has an astronomical 39.3% usage rate in this series while Tyrese Maxey's has fallen under 25% in each of the last two games. It remains to be seen how his body responds to the quick turnaround, but there was just one day between Games 3 and 4 as well.
As long as the 76ers continue to force-feed him his touches, I have little doubt that Embiid will get to 25 and probably 30 points as well. He started slow in Game 5, but still finished over 30 points.
Pick: Joel Embiid 25+ Points
The Contrarian SGP: Embiid Points & Celtics Moneyline
Boston Celtics Moneyline
The Celtics had been dominant in close-out opportunities in Game 5s at home, but that was not the case on Tuesday. They could not buy a basket in the fourth quarter as they missed 16 consecutive shots. Now, as I wrote about on Sunday, they will face a Game 6 on the road with the 76ers having Embiid back.
While they have certainly made it more difficult on themselves, I still like Boston to close out the series tonight. For starters, Tatum has thrived in Game 6s in his career, averaging 25.9 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.8 assists per game. He did not score 25 points with the Celtics facing elimination in Philadelphia in 2023, but he took the game over in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Brown has scored 20 points in each of the first five games, while Payton Pritchard scored 47 points in the two games on the road in Philadelphia. In addition to Games 3 and 4, Boston has won three of the last four meetings in Philadelphia. They have the firepower to get it done on the road tonight. They also may have an incentive to close out Philadelphia tonight if the Knicks also win and prevent them from gaining a rest advantage heading into the semifinals.
Pick: Boston Celtics Moneyline
Same Game Parlay Building Blocks (+282)
- Joel Embiid 25+ Points
- Derrick White Under 20.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Boston Celtics Moneyline
Compounding Angle (+1007)
- Joel Embiid 30+ Points
- Derrick White Under 15.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists
- Boston Celtics Moneyline
