The Atlanta Hawks (3-3) and New Orleans Pelicans (1-4) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana. The game will be broadcast live on Gulf Coast Sports.
The Hawks are 4.5-point favorites over the Pelicans on the spread, with the over/under set at 240.5 total points. The Hawks are -176 moneyline favorites to win outright, while the Pelicans are listed as +148 underdogs to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hawks vs. Pelicans predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, October 31.
Hawks vs Pelicans Prediction
- Hawks vs Pelicans pick: Herb Jones Over 5.5 points (-118, FanDuel)
Our Hawks vs. Pelicans best bet is on Herb Jones to go over his points prop, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
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Hawks vs Pelicans Odds
- Hawks vs Pelicans spread: Hawks -4.5 (-105), Pelicans +4.5 (-115)
- Hawks vs Pelicans over/under: 240.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Hawks vs Pelicans moneyline: Hawks -176, Pelicans +148
Hawks vs Pelicans NBA Preview
Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview
Atlanta has been a team that wins when its offense is humming and struggles when it isn't. The Hawks opened with road wins at Orlando and Charlotte, then dropped three straight, two to Houston and one at home to Miami, before a 114-111 comeback win over Cleveland on Thursday, a game in which Onyeka Okongwu scored 29 points.
Atlanta has scored 110 or more in all six games, but its defense has allowed 120 or more in four of them, which makes for plenty of possessions and plenty of shots on both ends.
The projected starting five is Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, CJ McCollum, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Dyson Daniels, with Mouhamed Gueye (fractured left foot) and Henri Veesaar (torn right ACL) out.
Scoring has not been the problem for this group, and the Pelicans will have to keep up.
New Orleans Pelicans Betting Preview
The Pelicans finally got their first win on Thursday, a 132-120 victory over Sacramento, after an 0-4 start in which they lost at home to Indiana by three, at Utah by one and in overtime at Denver, before getting run off the floor by Denver at home.
Jeremiah Fears was the story against the Kings, with 34 points and 14 assists, and Herb Jones took full advantage of Dejounte Murray's absence, playing 32 minutes and scoring 16 points on 7-of-12 shooting.
That was a very different role from the first four games of the season, when Jones played between 16 and 19 minutes a night and scored between two and five points.
Murray is now cleared to return, which puts the rotation back at full strength at guard, but the front line is still thin. Center Yves Missi is out with a knee bone bruise, and Jordan Poole has been ruled out with a left ankle injury.
Jones, the team's best perimeter defender, has averaged 6.0 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 1.2 steals over his five games. So, his defensive prowess will earn him more run.
Hawks vs Pelicans Pick, Betting Analysis
The line is built on Jones's reputation as a defender and a low-usage role player, and the projection is a bet that tonight's minutes look more like Thursday's than like the first four games.
Our PRO projections have him at 8.7 points, 3.2 points above the 5.5 line, which is where the 32.4% edge over the -118 price comes from.
His game log shows how much his scoring follows his minutes. Jones played 17, 18, 16, and 19 minutes in his first four games and scored 5, 3, 2, and 4.
Against Sacramento, he played 32 and scored 16, getting up 12 shots after never taking more than five in any of the other games.
The over needs three baskets, and when Jones is on the floor for most of a game, the shots come.
Tonight's roster gives those minutes a reason to stay high. With Missi and Poole both out, a rotation that was already short loses a rim protector and a scorer, and Jones is the kind of two-way wing a coach leans on to cover the gaps.
The game environment helps too. Atlanta has scored 110 or more in all six games and its defense has allowed 120 or more in four of them, which points to a lot of possessions on both ends, and a few baskets in the flow of an up-and-down game gets Jones over the number without being a focal point of the offense.
Pick: Herb Jones Over 5.5 points (-118, FanDuel)
