Tuesday NBA Sharp Betting Pick & Odds Movement: Blazers vs. Lakers Game 1 (August 18)
Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Damian Lillard and LeBron James.
- Sharp bettors are shaping the odds for Lakers vs. Blazers on Tuesday night for Game 1 of their series.
- Danny Donahue explains how pros have moved the line in favor of L.A.
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Game 1 Betting Odds
|Blazers Odds||+6.5 [Bet Now]|
|Lakers Odds||-6.5 [Bet Now]|
|Moneyline||+225/-278 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||233 [Bet Now]|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
Playoff LeBron is back, and bettors… don’t really seem to care? That, or they’ve just somewhat moved onto Playoff Dame for the time being — at least that’s what the betting market suggests.
Had the Lakers and Blazers met prior to the NBA’s bubble restart, I doubt we’d have seen the Lakers open as just 5.5-point favorites.
And I can almost assure you they wouldn’t have been the unpopular side at that number.
But with LA unimpressively waltzing through its eight meaningless games to a 3-5 record, and the Blazers earning the 8-seed after a 6-2 performance plus a play-in game victory all behind Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, the tune is a little bit different now.
The Blazers are getting 53% of tonight’s spread tickets to this point, and while that’s not a huge majority, it’s certainly noteworthy when it comes against the top-seeded Lakers.
So, the question remains, have sharp bettors also changed their tune?
The short answer is no. Here’s the long answer:
Trail Blazers vs. Lakers Game 1 Sharp Betting Pick
As mentioned, the Lakers opened as 5.5-point favorites for this game. But with the line now a full point higher even though Portland has been the more popular side, you can probably put together which team is attracting a heavier sharp backing.
Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of market movement caused by sharp action, four waves of smart money have hit the Lakers spread since the overnight hours.
Additionally, the 47% of bettors who’ve taken the Lakers have generated a higher percentage of actual money being wagered (56%). That means the bigger bets on this spread — the ones more likely to come from sharps — are landing on the favorites.
And for what it’s worth to those interested in following the sharp action, here’s a bit of good news: Since our database began tracking money percentages (the 2015-16 season), playoff favorites who’ve received a higher percentage of money than bets have gone 100-55-1, winning 39.9 units for a 25.6% return on investment.
Sharp angle: Lakers (moved from -5.5 to -6.5) [Bet $20+ on the Lakers at PointsBet and Win $125 if they have at least one dunk]