The second round of the NBA playoffs gets underway with a pair of Game 1s tonight — and our NBA betting expert Jim Turvey has locked in picks for both of today's matchups: 76ers vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
Let's get into our NBA total & prop bets for Monday, May 4.
NBA Total & Prop Bets: Monday, May 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Knicks Player Prop Pick
Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points
I’m looking at Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (+200) in Game 1, and it shouldn't be a surprise given how this matchup shakes out. Maxey is the engine of the Sixers offense right now, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Joel Embiid.
We saw Maxey clear this 30-point mark in both of the final two games against Boston with Embiid on the floor, including a Game 7 where minutes are high but scoring usually grinds to a halt.
I’m with Matt on the "over" here, and Maxey is one of the main reasons why. Looking back at the regular season, he absolutely terrorized the Knicks, hitting 30+ points in three out of four matchups.
I just don't think New York has a great individual answer for his speed. Mikal Bridges will likely get the initial assignment, and while Bridges showed some life attacking the rim in Game 6 against Atlanta, Maxey is playing at a completely different level right now.
Expect the Sixers to let Maxey eat early in this series. New York is going to be forced into a tactical chess move eventually—they’ll have to sell out to stop him, which might open things up for the rest of the roster, but until they make that adjustment, Maxey is going to keep attacking.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey 30+ Points (+200)
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Team Total & Prop Bets
Timberwolves Team Total Under 101.5
Some bettors may want to wait until after Game 1 to get a feel for this series, but I think this is actually the exact game where I want to strike.
We’re at the inflection point: either Anthony Edwards is coming back soon or we’re getting no Ant at all. So, I’m going to hop all over this under 101.5 right now.
I view this series as the inverse of the New York/Philly matchup. In that one, we’re looking for points, but here, the defensive matchups work too well.
The turnover numbers are worrisome, but I still think the Spurs’ defensive structure is a nightmare for a team as shorthanded as the Wolves.
Edwards might officially get cleared to play in Game 1 leading up to tipoff, so you could try to wait it out to see if the number ticks up, but I really don’t think he’s going to play.
Even if the news shifts, these team totals are so heavily tethered to the spread and the game total that I don't think the line is going to move significantly enough to lose the value.
When you look at the guard rotation Minnesota is forced to run right now, I struggle to see where the scoring comes from.
Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 Points
This play essentially dovetails with the "Minnesota is a mess" handicap—look, the Timberwolves offense might be a struggle tonight, but the points have to come from somewhere.
Someone has to step up, and the math points to Jaden McDaniels being one of those guys. I wouldn't even mind throwing this in a little reverse-correlated same-game parlay with a Spurs win.
The current line of 16.5 feels like it’s being priced as if Edwards is going to play. But check the on/off splits: Jaden’s usage jumps to 24.2% when Ant and Donte DiVincenzo are off the court. That usage remains elite even with guys like Julius Randle and Ayo Dosunmu on the floor.
During the regular season, Jaden averaged a steady 15 points per game in just 31 minutes of action. Tonight, his minutes floor is significantly higher, and his usage is going to be notably up.
I’m projecting McDaniels right around the 20-point mark in Game 2 tonight. I know the Spurs bring a tough defense to the table, and it’s going to be a grind, but given the minutes and volume that I'm projecting for him in this spot, I’ll gladly take over 16.5.
Pick: Timberwolves Team Total Under 101.5, Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 Points
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