Nets vs. Raptors Odds & Picks: Toronto Should Win Game 2 With Ease
Joe Murphy/NBAE via Getty Images). Pictured: Tyler Johnson #8 of the Brooklyn Nets, Fred VanVleet #23 of the Toronto Raptors.
- The Raptors covered the 9.5-point spread in Game 1 with ease, beating the Nets, 134-110.
- Now Toronto is a double-digit for Game 2 on Wednesday. Can you trust them to cover again?
- Our basketball betting analyst Joe Dellera thinks so. Find his take on the matchup and pick below.
Nets vs. Raptors Betting Odds
|Nets Odds||+11 [BET NOW]|
|Raptors Odds||-11 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+525/-715 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||226.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||1:30 p.m. ET|
The Toronto Raptors blew the Brooklyn Nets out of the water in Game 1 of this series as they won by 24 points and cut through the Nets like a hot knife through butter. The Game 2 spread now sits at double digits and the over/under is 226.5. Both of these numbers have increased since Game 1, so where is the value?
The Raptors came out firing in Game 1 and totally outclassed the Nets. Fred VanVleet looked to be gunning for a max contract offer this offseason, and Serge Ibaka had an efficient 22 points in just 26 minutes.
The Raptors’ depth gives them a huge advantage over the Nets. VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, or Pascal Siakam could lead the team in scoring on a given night and this allows them to adjust to whatever their opponent throws at them.
The Raptors took the shots the Nets gave them, which lead to a 58.5% effective Field Goal percentage (eFG%). The Raptors took and capitalized on good shots. They got out in transition and only played a bit slower than they did all season.
The Raptors played their ideal game, and here’s the key thing to note moving forward: this is sustainable. The Raptors had the fourth-best Location eFG% in the league over the course of the season and actually shot into a bit of bad luck as their actual eFG% was lower than anticipated.
The Nets will once again be without Jamal Crawford, who would be a nice addition for the offense but would be a defensive liability for their already porous defense. The Nets surrendered 134 points in Game 1, which translates to 131.9 points per 100 possessions — more than 20 points better than the Raptors’ season average. That is not all that surprising, the Nets rank 18th in the bubble as they give up 117.8 points per 100 possessions.
One sign that has been encouraging for the Nets is the emergence of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. He has dropped 26, 19, and 24 points over his past three games and is a legitimate deep threat as he’s shooting 49% from 3-point range in the bubble. Caris LeVert also put together another impressive performance with 15 points, 15 assists and seven rebounds on a massive 35.2% usage rate, per Cleaning the Glass.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Raptors did exactly what I expected them to do to LeVert. They pressured LeVert to get the ball out of his hands, and adjusted to an even more aggressive trapping scheme out by halfcourt in the fourth quarter, which helped push the lead to 24.
The Raptors also leaned on OG Anunoby to switch onto LeVert and provide some help defense. Not only is Nick Nurse a tremendous coach who can think of defensive schemes on the fly, but he has the personnel to make nearly any mid-game or mid-series adjustment.
Ordinarily, it is not profitable to bet on double-digit favorites in the NBA. However, there’s a notable swing during the postseason. Since 2005, double-digit favorites are 65-50-3 against the spread during the playoffs.
Additionally, the Raptors are 4-2 ATS this season when laying double digit points and they are 47-38 (2-0 playoffs) in the Kyle Lowry era, data per our Bet Labs database.
The Raptors made the proper adjustments against the Nets and had they kept their foot on the gas last game they could have won by 40. This Raptors team has a championship pedigree and they will take care of business in Game 2.
The Pick: Raptors -11